AFTER THE WAR.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 11671, 11 April 1916, Page 3

AFTER THE WAR.

.+ —i MANY COMPLEX PROBLEMS. WHAT THE NATIONS WILL CLAIM. After having shown the certainty of the defeat of the Central Powers, a well-known French writer, M. J. Eosny. in an article in ''lllustration," discusses the results of the victories of the Allies. The peace negotiations, he thinks, will he extraordinarily difficult, delicate and complex. Germany will croarto every difficulty that trickery and cunning diplomacy will suggest, and she will part with her territory only as a last resort.'' Germany will show less reluctance in agreeing to the cession of Austro-Hungarian territory—as was indicated by Prince von Billow's mission to Home—except where it affects the routo to the ; Orient. It is not expected', however, that Austria will servilely agree to the session of her territory. The writer considers that Turkey, unless she. is invaded, will continue to be a dangerous element in the diplomatic situation, and it is to Germany's interest to maintain the integrity of Turkey. But even greater difficulties may he earned by the fact that five great Powers and a-number of smaller ones will be seeking rewards for then; share in the victory. Italy will want a portion of Austria, and perhaps othergrants, and France, recognising that Italy's intervention calls for eternal gratitude, will not be inclined to deny the justice of her, claims. The demands of the Italian-population are urgent; 86,000,000 people are crowded into a country very much smaller than The possession of Poland and Galicia is apparently Russia's minimum demand. Slavism may demand, other territories,'particularly those taken by the Prussians, aud the ancient Poland, now in three divisions, may be rebuidt. Further, Russia will not wish to have fought in vain in the Caucasus. Japan will never surrender the Asiatic territory she took from. German v ; her influence iu the .development of Asia is great and growing. Britain is considered to have strong claims, hut it is hoped that she will not prove too greedy. The South Africans, who have captured, or are capturing, territory in Africa, cannot be expected to surrender their conquests: Britain's influence must also be very <rreat in the disposition of Asia Minor. Then there arc the clnims of Belgium, Strbia,'Rumania, Greece among others Those -will" nil'cause-much trouble and heartburning before the borders of the now Europe are fixed. THE INTERNAL CONDITION. The writer goes on to examine the internal condition of each nation in re-lation-to tile'post-war settlement. Ihe moral tone of France ■ that has been created by the war he considers excellent. . The nobility and self-sacrifice-of the French, shown by the war, prove their claim to a high.destiny. Great Britain should do much to regulate-in future the peace of Europe. She will work patiently to secure a durable peace and unitv among the States of Europe, as she"has. done in the past, but she must recosxnise now, m the face of Teuton barbarities, that if complete harmony' is to be achieved there must he a great change in the spirit of the German people. But the writer foresees thac while Britain -will enjoy much material prosperity, she will bo torn by bitter social crises. By joining the Allies Italy fixed her destiny. She is; a young nation, with a tremendous newer for expansion, and •France, her Latin sister, will rejoice to sec her development. Her. children have gonojn gjreat riumbsrsto South America, and m that direction her influence will be great. But Italy is more liable even than France or England to serious social crises. The situation in R.ussia is more obscure, incoherent and tragic than in the other Powers. The Russians have not reached the same stage of social, development, and the problems provided by the desire for Polish autonomy, the presence of millions of Ruthenes in Galicia' and Bukowina, and 1 questions relating to Finland, the Jews, and the Lithuanians, no less than the growth of democracy and the desire of the people for better living conditions will provide the Russian Government with much embarrassment. The growth and development of this great Power must remain a menace to Germany. The writer, in conclusion,, points? to three- great changes which are taking place outside of Europe. He thinks that the nations of South America will form a vast federation, with a power and influence not dreamed of to-day. Japan, he believes, will complete the organisation of the Mongol world; while China, now in a condition of chaos, will throw off the yoke of the white man .within fifty years, and 1 become a formidable. Power. Grave social troubles will develop in the United States, after a period, of great prosperity, and "the men of flie trusts" will be driven out.