WAR AND TRADE.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 11506, 30 September 1915, Page 7

WAR AND TRADE.

- SUBMARINES A STIMULANT? PEOULTA R. 001 NT.IOENCE i FriQH OtTE CoRB.rSPONDEXT, ] LONDON, Augu?t. 13. Tho acoount-s relating to the oyersoar, | trade of the United Kingdom, just. v>I !.uptl by the Board of iVadc, throw j somo interesting sidfclishts on the e,fI focifl of war- the outstanding feature J is thati while, according to the figures j given, tile value of British exports ha?, I during: 3. year of war, declined by over j '172 millions, the value of imports has I increased by morn than two and thrcej quarter millions. These figures do not ;> r. first ylanoe appear to afford the slenderest foundation for satisfaction, but on closer examination of the data on which they ;iro founded', certain i'arts to light- which " take the chill off this cold douche of figures. This cnormoiiv falling off in exports has not. been continuous. Comparing the figures with those of the previous year, wo find that nearly two-thirds of the lots, took plneo within tho first six month-, of war- Of the 3.72 millions lo.ss in export values, 110 millions, fell between August, 3914, and January, 1935; while the last fix months accounted for only sixty-two millions of tho total loss. The'figures aro even more striking when compared with tbo*c for 1914, month by month. From £19,500,000 in January tho deficit foil to £6,600.000 for June—a most remarkable drop. During the first six months of war there* was a flecline iti tho value of imports of over t>7£ millions as compared with the same months of the previous year, and of this loss two-third's took place during the first throe. months of war. In tho second six months there wa?= a .steady increase as compared with the previous year, which mounted up month by month until the whole deficit of the first, six months was wiped out, and at tho end of the first year of war the not increase amounted to over two and throe-quarter m ill ions. " BLOCKADE " EFFECTS. A remarkable thing about both import and export figures is that they show that the greater part of the decline took place during the early months of the war. In dealing with values, allowance must, of course, be made for the notable recovery since the begin- ; njng of the year. The increase m arer--1 age prices for that period canuot ho put at more than 10 to 12 per cent over the first half-year of war; and, as this 1 improvement has been maintained, we ; have grounds f concluding that most ; of the loss to trade rrassdw t° tile difv : location of shipping and of European 1 industry on the outbreak of war. By 1 tho etui of six months we had been ablo to readjust to a very considerable extent our commercial machinery to ? tho new conditions, and the process of i readjustment appears to be continuing. One fact is particularly suggestive. The. Board of Trade figu&s show that the recovery commenced ill February ? and memory tells us that it was in that month that Germany began her submarine " blockado" 1 One might argue —Herr Deruburg and _ certain other i German publicists certainly would :f those Board of Trade figures related to tho Fatherland's oversea, trado—that instead of injuring our trade the submarine " blockade" had acted as a * tonic and stimulant to it. Without ; adopting Hun methods of argument, - we may , at any rate, poin| to the ■ figures as proof that, in spite of the ► very considerable losses our mercantile ) marine haa suffered from the depredaI tions of German submarines, the vaunti ed " blockade " has proved aa ignomis nious failure. UNCLE SAM'S POSITION. Other interesting facts can be glean--1 cd from the bewildering Array of figures in the Board of Trade returns. For example, it appears that the decrease in value of imports from Germany, Austria,, Franco and Belgium is almost exactly balanced by the increase in those from the United States. Uncle Sam has been " kicking up a considerable bobbery " about Britain's interfernce with his oversea trade., but it. would' appear that, in spite of all thai has happened, ho has d'one and is doing fairly well out of the war. Another note,bio point is that there lias been a large increase in the import of foodstuffs into Great Britain as compared with the previous two years. It seems clear, therefore, that the big and all-round increase in prices the consumer has been called upon to paysome things in daily consumption aro "up" to lo to 35 per cent, and a few items 50 to 100 per cent on normal pro-war rates —is not due to any shortage in supplies, hut to rise on ocean freights, extra coat of internal transit, manipulation of markets and, probably, increased' middleman's profitAs regards the great falling off in exports, tho figures certainly justify anxiety, but the splendid recovery in Britain's trade during the past six month* gives grounds for a certain Amount of optimism regarding the future.