THE WORLD'S WHEAT.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 10768, 14 May 1913, Page 2

THE WORLD'S WHEAT.

Ro&uirsments greater Tkaa Supply.

("Financial Times.")

An important estimate of the wheat trade position, particularly with regard to prospective supply and demand, has been prepared by Mx George Broomhall, the statistician to the Liverpool grain trade. Mr Broomhall points out that the world's shipments have fallen off as anticipated, especially from southeast Europe. According to official returns recently issued, the German crop has turned out larger than expected, but much of it is of poor quality, consequently some may be used for cattle reeding, but in the end it would 6eem inevitable that German millers will have to make use of their native wheat as best they may. The demand from other Continental countries keeps large and promises to be well maintained during the whole of the season. Argentina. in spite of some damage from torrid heat in the south, promises to produce a crop of about 3,000,000 quartera larger than last year's, but this supplyis not immediately available, and will not affect the situation materially until next spring. In the near future it is predicted'that American shipments will keep up at their present level, while other countries' contributions will .be small, so that, on the whole, the total should not exceed or perhaps not equal the current large requirements. Nevertheless, the fact that recent imports have been on a very liberal scale must not be overlooked, and although they have been freely used, the possibility is that reserves in some invisible quarters may have been accumulating. Moreover, there is a large supply of native wheat, which, if the coming winter should be cold and dry, may become available; but, on the other hand, if the weather should be mild and damp, there is pretty sure to be a continued heavv demand for dry foreign sorts, not only m this country, but also in France, Belgium, Holland and perhaps also in Germany. Furthermore; there is every prospect of a large demand also from the Mediterranean during the whole of the season.

At the International Conference of Millers, held in London recently, the writer canvassed the French, Belgian, Dutch and Italian members as to the state of the trade in their respective countries, and without exception "all the replies pointed to the existence of a very active demand for dry imported wheat for mixing with the damp native produce of the recent wet summer. One statement was to the effect that French millers would, as a rule, require to mix in their grist 30 per cent of dry imported grain. If this should turn out to be the case on a general scale, the difference to the accepted notion of France's likely importation would amount to many million quarters; as the consumption of wheat in France for flour manufacture amounts to about 40,000,000 quarters, consequently a 30 per cent demand for foreign wheat would amount to about 12,000,000 quarters. Hitherto we have been reckoning on France requiring only 3,000,000 quarters this season and no other English authority is reckoning her requirements at a higher figure. Much the same tale was told of the quality of the German, Belgian and Dutch native wheat, much of it being of a quality so inferior as to be unsuitable for the manufacture of highelass flour, such as is demanded _in the present day. The largest Italian miller expressed his confident belief that Italy would require 10,000.000 quintals (4,600,000 quarters) more imported wheat than she consumed last year. Assuming that the foregoing enlarged estimates prove to be approximately near the mark, Mr Broomnail considers that he would have to raise his recent estimate of Europe's likely importation during the present season to the very high level of 79,000,000 quarters (or 90,000,000 quarters if ex-European requirements be added). Mr Broomhall proceeds that as it would be a practical impossibility to procure from the exporting countries the predicted quantity of 90,000,000 quarters, and, believing that ere long more native wheat will become available, for the cold, dry weather of winter should bring into condition a great quantity of wheat harvested in North-Western Europe last sumuer, he purposes adopting much more moderate estimates of the requirements ot the importing countries than indicated by the aforementioned authorities. In the following statement he gives revised estimate, and shows in a parallel column the final returns of the imports of the principal countries in the two preceding seasons :

To meet such requirements will undoubtedly strain the resources of the countries with exportable surpluses pretty considerably, even should the Argentine! e:\;p turn out as large as ex-

pected. Canada lias a crop handy as big as last \ ear's, and aJtiiuugU the States have a large spring v.ueat crop, yet tiro, winter one is small and urn home demand is largo in America. The heavy snipping season in the States iinish.es in i)ec*»mber, and so far the quantity exported has been very large, more than half her estimated expertaoi-? surplus having Ixon shipped in the lircr. jiueen wrens of the season. Canada has undou.btediy a big quantity yet to shi" but between the encl of December and the beginning of .May Canadian exports are u-tully made on a minor : : caie; the visible supply iu North Ameiiea is large, it is true, but it was a< large a; ■ his time hist vear. and yet the shii/menUi lust

year in the second half of the season were quite moderate, and even then the visible supply laded away to vanishing point. Russia in the best months or her season has shipped only_ 6,800,000 quarters, and it is doubtful if ehe will ship even 10.000,000 quarters more in the .ensuing eight months. The Balkan States must have suffered Li mi*ny ways from the war. They have a poor promise for their next crop, and are not a reliable source to depend upon for any great assistance during the remainder of the season. India may be relied upon, perhaps, for a total contribution this season, ending July 31 next, for six or seven million quarters. Argentina looks like hating a surplus for shipment during the next calendar vear of 16,000,000 quarters, of which about 10,000,000 to 12.00 C.OOO quarters nii<rht be shipped to July 31 next, which, together with the 3,000,000 quarters which she will have shipped between August 1 and December 31, 1912, would give a total for the present British cereal year of 13,000,000 to 15,000,000 quarters. ' Australasia cannot be depended upon for more than 5.000,001) quarters to be shipped by Julv 31. Sundry countries, such a3 Chili. North Africa and Persia, may possiblv contribute in the aggregate 1.000.000 quarters. Summarising the foregoing estimates and indications, be gets the following:—

Total . . .76 000 000 68,300,000 It thus looks, says Mr Broomhall, as if the supply would fall short of the estimated requirements by some 4,000,000 quarters. For the present the market seems to depend very largely upon the character of the Argentine weather; in any case, the shipments do not look as if they would be excessive for som time to come, and this should tend to keep prices while, should there be any big buying necessary, it will have to be done in North America, where its influence would be most effective in reviving a state of activity on the international markers.

Prospective Require- Actual meat this Imports, Season, Season 1912-13. 1911-13. Qrs.. Qrs. United Kingdom . . 29,000.000 25.SO0.00O France .... B.0O0.0D0 3,500,000 Germr.ny . . . 2.000,000 7,300.000 Belgium aud Holland . 10,500,000 9,iOO.OOO Spain and Portugal . 6\)GKX> 300.000 Scandinavia . . . 2000.000 1,900.000 Switzerland . . . 2,300,000 2,300,00.« Greece, Austria, Hungary and Malta, etc. 1,500,000 1,000,000 Total Continent . 40,iO0,O0O Ol.GO.i.OOO Total Europe . 69,100 0,'.) 57,100,000 Ex-Europe. . . 11.800 000 ]ii,0Jv'.OO0 Grand total . 80,400 000 03.000.000

Prospective Last shipments season's 1st Aug. actual 1912, to 21st shipments. July, 1913, Qrs. Qrs, U.S.A. , . . . 14 000,000 JMOO.000 Canada < > . 12.000,000 12,200,000 Russia t . . 17,000 000 10.0O0.CO0 Balkans • . 6,050,000 9,600,001 India . < . . 7 000,003 7,000,00:1 Argentina . . . 14,000,000 12,000 00) Au8trnla-ai« . • . 5,000,000 6,600,000 Sundries • . 1,000,000 1,500,000