The Star. MONDAY, JUNE 1, 1903. THE COMING "SLUMP."

Star (Christchurch), Issue 7720, 1 June 1903, Page 2

The Star. MONDAY, JUNE 1, 1903. THE COMING "SLUMP."

The Wellington merchant who told a newspaper reporter last week that the colony was highly prosperous was merely giving expression to a self-evident fact which nobody would think of disputing. But when the speaker went on to paint the prospects of the future in glowing colours he got on to debatable ground. His opinion is shared, of course, by ai large number of capable business men, but it is also opposed by a considerable section of people whose views are worth having. As in most cases in which there is a wide difference of opinion, there is something to be said in favour of both, sides. Undoubtedly there is justification for taking an optimistic view of the future. The finances of the State are sound, in spite of assertions, "to the contrary ; the private wealth, of the country was never greater, and its value is enhanced by the fact that it is not tied up in the hands of the few ; trade is buoyant, and the country's exports continue to grow, while the prices obtained for them are, with a few exceptions, high. But, bright as the present is, anxiety concerning the future is felt, and, in some instances, this featr almost becomes alarm. There is, as we have eaid» a strong feeling among a. certain seotion of the community that the present prosperity is the forerunner of a state of things which will almost rival the bad times of the eighties and early nineties. This view is not based co much, on> any trustworthy portent as on a certain indefinable fear that the present prosperity is tqq good to last, and that fat years are invariably followed by lean ones> With this vagua method of reasoning we have- no patience. True, the experience of the past justifies the exercise of prudence now. It •was largely the want of this virtue which dragged the country into tho mire a quarter of a century ago. But the wave of prosperity which preceded the "slump" of the eighties was in. no sense analogous to the present one. It was to a considerable extent fictitious, it was largely the result of speculation and it was not supported by production on an adequate scale. On tho other hand, by no stretch of imagination can the present good times be described as fictitious. They or© built on the secure foundation of private wealth, evenly distributed; they have not been marred by over-speculation, and the products of the colony, on which they so greatly depend, are large enough and' of a sufficiently varied nature to prohibit the possibility of their all being affected simultaneously. Twenty-fivo years ago the country, after its mad gamble, hod only two staple products. Both fell to abnormally low prices, and then followed that bitter period of ruin and despair, which bugMi to end only a decade ago. So far the present prosperity has been responsible for little gambling. Those who haye made money have made less by speculation than by legitimate business ; their profits are nob on paper, and in most instances they have husbanded them. The country no longer trusts to two staple products,, bait to half-a--dozen, and the chances of a general fall in its commodities have., therefore, been divided by .three. In every respect it is in a sounder state than, it has ever been at any time in its history. And yet there are people who pretend! to regard disaster as inevitable! Their reason for taking this view is not easy .to fathom. That the colony will not always remain as prosperous as it is at the present time is certain, but that it will ever again suffer euch a relapse as it experienced after the la«t "boom" is an assumption which is not justified by present indication*.