THE PRESENT POSITION.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 6650, 23 November 1899, Page 1

THE PRESENT POSITION.

OPINIONS OF AN EX-MILITARY OFFICER. ESTCOURT. (By RHAMABIDIKWI.) What with the censorship of the cables on the one hand, the possible mistakes in transmission, and the errors made by different papers, or their printers, it i 3 sometimes a difficult matter to arrive at the actual facts. As illustrating this, I may say that one evening paper, published yesterday, stated that 6000 Boers were foraging towards Greytown, which was located to the north-west of Estcourt. There is nothing so charming as variety,' even in cable news, and the other evening paper stated that Greytown was south-west of Estcourt. This diversity of opinion as to the geographical position of Greytown, however, is easily solved by a glance at the map, which shows that the place is situated to the northeast of Estcourt. It is a township in the Umvoti County, as also is Weenan, and, as I reminded my readers before, this county is. the stronghold of the disaffected Natal Dutch. In addition to the previous news, both papers inform us that 6000 Boers are engaged in the foraging expedition. This, I think, must be absolutely wrong, and the number is more likely to be 600 at the outside, as General Joubert could not possibly spare 6000 men for this purpose. We are also informed that 1700 Boers are looting in the south of Estcourt. I feel certain that this, too, must be a mistake. No doubt the commandoes at Ennersdale and Weenan, to the north-east and northwest of Estcourt, require feeding, but that 7700 men could be spared to go foraging is, of course, absolutely absurd. If the numbers reported be correct, the object of these men is not to forage merely, but, possibly, to work round to the south of Estcourt and destroy the railway line, and prevent communication between Pietermaritzburg and Estcourt. By this means they hope to seriously delay, or even capture, trains bearing fresh troops and artillery to Estcourt. As the cables that have been^allowed to pass the censor state as facts that this number of men, in two parties, is foraging and looting, we can only suppose there must be some truth in the report. The Unfortunate part of the business is that General Hilyard, or whoever may now be the commanding officer, is apparently so weak in horse artillery and cavalry, that he cannot afford to take any risks by dashing out and dispersing these so-called foragers. At the same time, whatever may be Jhe real object these forces have in view, it' is not at all pleasant to learn that they are working round the flank and to the south of Estcourt. Then, as to the numbers and the . whereabouts of the Transvaal Boers in Natal, it is a perfect Chinese puzzle to make

out the whole business. The Transvaal Boers and the Free Staters together were supposed to number about 27,000 men round about Ladysmith. In killed, wounded and prisoners they have lost at least 4000, which would reduce their total to 23,000. Then we were told a few days ago that large numbers of Free State Boers, fearing j i an. inroad of the Basutos, had left the neighbourhood of Ladysmith, and re-crossed from Natal into their own country. SupI posing only 2000 left in this way, it would leave only about 21,000 near Ladysmith. That this would be somewhere about correct is borne out by the testimony of the British officer who, about a fortnight ago, was said, by some wonderful means, to have traversed the whole of the Boer lines, and to have returned safely to Ladysmith, and he estimated the strength of the Boers at not much more than 18,000. However, taking 21,000 as about the correct number ten days ago, we have to deduct from these the commandoes now at Ennersdale and Weenan, not to mention the 6000 "foragers," and I presume that these two forces must be at least 6000 strong, or they would never have attempted to rush Estcourt- with a garrison of 10,000. This would have left only about 15,000 men round Ladysmith, where General White has troops numbering about 10,500. Before passing on. from Estcourt, I must note that to-day's cables inform us that Major-General Clery has been appointed to command Ijie column marching to the relief of Ladysmith. GENERAL JOUBERT'S MOVEMENTS. In tlie ordinary sequence of events, the cables next tell us that General Joubert, with strong reinforcements, is marching southwards, to intercept General Clery. Nearly a week ago, the British force at Estcourt was put down at 10,000 men, but since then two lots, consisting of 2000 and 6000, we are told, have been despatched to Natal, and they have just about had time enough to concentrate at Estcourt. But supposing that only 4000 have reached that place as yet, the British fighting force will total about 14,000 men. Now, if General Joubert is marching forward with strong reinforcements, as the cables inform us he is Moing, he must be bringing at least 9000 men with him to bring up his total number to 14,000, before he can have any reasonable hope of successfully engaging the 14,000 men under General Clery. If, therefore, General Joubert has further weakened the force round | Ladysmith by SOOO men, it would leave only 6000 or 7000 at the very outside near Ladysmith. So that from a careful resume of these figures, there must either be a gross error somewhere, or else the Boer forces are very much more numerous than they have up to the present been supposed to be. One thing, at any rate, is plain — that is, that after General Joubert, with his large reinforcements, has moved south from Ladysmith, to intercept General Clery, there can ba only a very weak force of Boers left at this place. Therefore, as General White is sure to be keeping ia touch with, and feel' ing the pulse of, the force opposed to him, it Is almost certain that he is aware of the drawing-off of these large reinforcements, and very probably he will sally out and attack in force the comparative handful of men' who lave been' left behind to watch his garrison. As White is a very live General, we have every reason to expect that he'will deliver a crushing blow, for his garrison is reported to be buoyant and full of confidence, with plenty of provisions and ammunition, and, presumably, far better housed than the Boers, who for weeks past, ..have had to bivouack in the open, and whose trenches before the town have been turned into quagmires by the late heavy rains. We may, therefore, confidently expect, at a very early date, to hear of severe fighting at both Ladysmith and the neighbourhood of Estcourt. MAFEKING. Cables received! on Nov. 21 inform us that this place was safe on Nov. 12, and they state that, after the assault on Nov. 7, the Boers were occupied for two hours in removing their dead and wounded. It was also stated that Commandant Cronje's son was amongst the killed. This indicates that the losses of the Boers must have been exceptionally heavy, as compared with the British loss of fifteen altogether, eight of whom were killed and seven wounded. KIMBERLEY. As far as we are aware, Kimberley is not only safe, but is holding its own with ridiculous ease, as, since the attack on Ottoskopje, when the Boers were defeated with heavy loss, they have not, apparently, made any further attempt at an assault. LORD METHUEN'S COLUMN. This column, marching along the line northwards to the relief of Kimberley, we were informed, reached the Orange River at Hopetoun on Sunday, where, I presume, they have been busily engaged in reconstructing the railway bridge. They are said to be still there, awaiting the arrival of the naval brigade, when they will immediately' continue their advance on Kimberley. Until we know definitely when the force expects to be joined by the brigade it is impossible to correctly estimate how long it will be before we may reasonably expect this column to relieve Kimberley. The fighting between the reconnoitring column and the Boers some eight or nine days ago must have been,fairly severe, as the Boer casualties at Belmont on that occasion are reported to have totalled 200 men killed and wounded. My readers will remember that, on. the advance of Colonel Metnuen's column to the Orange River, the Boers after looting Belmont, retired to the Modder River, and the probabilities are that there is no considerable force to oppose the very rapid advance of the British over the twenty-six miles separating iue two positions, immediately they are prepared to move forward. THE RIGHT FLANKING COLUMN. We are at present not absolutely aware what officer is in command of this column. Apparently, the Boers who were some little while ago at Colesburg and Burgersdorp, are in full retreat. A sharp fight is said to have occurred at Kulumons, in Northern Cape Colony, in which the Boers suffered badly. As far as we know there is no township of that name, and we must therefore presume that the figlit took place on the line of retreat at some farm occupied by a man of that name, and it is probable that, either to-day or to-morrow, we will hear definite news that this British column is massed somewhere in the vicinity of [Worval's Pont. LOYALTY AND DISLOYALTY. ! It is satisfactory to note that the urgent appeal of the Boer commandant at Colesburg to the Dutch to rise met with only a very lukewarm response. It is also a wise move that has been taken in instructing General Gatacro to make a record of the names ul ;.'d residents showing disloyalty to' the British cause. 1 think the same instruction should b-j isaicd.to all Magistrates and Field Cornets ,vho are receiving British pay in the Western Province to do the same, as no doubt there ;.- a stronger undercurrent of disloyalty there

than in the Eastern Province. As a setoff to this, it is satisfactory to note that" Sir Alfred Milner has issued* a proclamation that all those loyal to the British cause tf'ho have sustained losses through their allegiance will be fully compensated. Why, in the na.me of fortune, do they not shut up Mr Schreiner, once and for all? It does seem an utter farce to continue allowing him to teke up. the roll of authority as to whether the Cape Burgher forces shall or shall not be called out. It was my opinion, as stated weeks ago, thafc Great Britain should mark her displeasure of the disloyalty of Schreiner by dismissing him and his Bond Ministry, and I think more strongly than ever that this should take place without further delay. The latitude allowed to Mr Schreiner up to the present has created, both among the natives and the Cape Dutch, the erco- j neous impression that the British Govern- i ment is afraid to remove the Ministry, and it has also placed the loyal British subjects in the Cape Colony in an invidious . position, as they strongly resented Mr Schreiner's announcement that the Cape Colony would remain neutral, and were anxious to show j their loyalty by giving their personal ser- , vice in support of the cause of British supremacy. It must he remembered that it was the British Government which authorised Sir Alfred Milner to override Mr Schreiner in sending the Capetown Volunteers to De Aar, and they immediately answered with alacrity, and went to the front in a body, and some thousand of all arms are now there. I therefore, think the British I Government should now go further, instruct Sir Alfred Milner to dismiss the Bond Ministry, and immediately call ' out all the burghers, British and Dutch. This would make a very clear line of demarcation, and it would soon be seen that, the British, would respond with enthusiasm, and those of the Cape Dutch who were disloyal would then be immediately detected, and would be punished for their want of allegiance. There has been plenty of lip-loyalty amongst the Dutch, and it is now' high time that their assertions should bs put to the test, and that the many hundreds who are truly staunch and loyal to the British cause, should be recognised, and those who are disloyal be made to pay the penalty. I have, somewhat expatiated on this subject in common fairness to the British in Cape Colony, as many people here who have not followed the course of events very closely, seem to bo of opinion that the British were very lukewarm, whereas they have only obeyed the wishes of the British Government, which, for its own motives of policy, allowed Mr Schreiner, for the time being, to dictate the course of action. NOTES- _ It is good news to learn., that 4000 additional troops arrived at Capetown, and disembarked and moved to the front with praiseworthy, celerity. Paul Kruger, I see, is in a pitiable condition, owing to nervous irritation, brought on by chagrin, I presume. I feel sorry, for , him, poor fellow, but much more so for the many ignorant Boors whom his flagrant government and advice have landed in the present trouble. . ■ . ■.*—■■ .-■•>—-- •' - - -• I note with pleasure the patriotic move- j ment of the women of Great Britain, who have banded together to raise funds for the relief of suffering incurred by the brave fellows at the front" Their praiseworthy action reminds us of our duty as members of the British nation, and I would sincerely urge the Christchurch public to show the genuineness of their feelings by attending the meeting' called by the Mayor for this afternoon in the Council Chambers at four o'clock. Wanganui and Auckland have shown a worthy example, and Christchurch cannot permit itself to be left behind in regard to so good an object.