THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENCY.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 6309, 6 August 1888, Page 4

THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENCY.

O i Prospectß of the ElectioD. ; EFFECTS OF THE SUSPENSE. [ The New York Correspondent of the ; Sydney Morning Herald writing under ■ date June 24, says:— t The present Presidential campaign -will f be one of principle far more than of } persons. It is a square, unmistakable j . issue of Protection or Freetrade. It the I • ! Republicans win both the Presidency and I the House of Bepresentatives, all hope of j any change in our commercial policy -will • have fled for a generation to come, ; because they will at once have the means to increase and consolidate their power. f Four territories, all Eepublican, are knockc ing at the door ' of Congress for adl mission to the rights of full States, «n<i i tho eight additional senators thus t obtained, would lnake the Republican j majority ia the Upper House, already.'

tolerably eecuro, absolutely imprognnblo. Again, the census in ISOO will suroly uhow a gain in population far greater in tho Western than in tho Southern Sfcatoa, and co there ■will bo a taking away of votoo from the South, and a giving of voloh to the West. A sweeping democratic victory now might, perhap3, cnablo thorn to withstand the consequences of theso chnngos, and a victory of any kind would givo thorn the power to delay the inevitablo aB loiig as possible. Still, it ia plain that tho Democrats have a far greater ettiko in tho issue than their rivals, and thoy may bo expected to fight with tho energy of despair. TUE BETTING HEN are already giving odds of ten to six on Cleveland's re-election, but this is a very uncertain guide as to the real chances. In the electoral college two hundred and one votes will be necessary to elect, and each. State, of course, casts its vote as a unit. And of all the thirty-eight States, only four are seriously doubtful. A great wave of political feeling may, perhapa, change the vote in three or four others, but no sober-minded person of either party even hopes that such will be the case. All the southern and border States ere for Cleveland — one hundred and sixty-fieven sure votes. All the northern and eastern and western States, except New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Indiana, are for the Eepublican nominee, whoever he may be — one hundred and eighty-three sure votes. If the Republicans can carry either New York alone, or both Indiana and New Jersey, they will win; and of course the Democrats must cany not only New. York, but also either Indiana or New Jersey, to avoid defeat. Under these conditions, the battle-field being narrowed down to so small a compass, each party knows perfectly well where to concentrate its pecuniary and other powers of persuasion, and, since Governor Hill has vetoed the Ballot Eeform Bill, corruption and bribery will have abundant chances of coming into play. Last year, in New York city, votec averaged lOdol to 15dol each in a mere struggle for the District Attorneyehip and a few lucrative but subordinate places. This year each side has a plethoric Treasury tofailbackupon,fortheDemocrats have tho patronage of the administration and assessments upon over 100,000 officeholders, and the Eepublicans will bo supported by the manufacturers, to whom Freetrade means financial ruin. In the inner rooms of Political Clubs, the professional politicians are gleefully rubbing their hands over the "boodle" (which is the technical term for illicit money) that will pas 3 through their hands for disbursement. Without doubt there will bo a "carnival of corruption" greater, and on a wider scale than v/e have ever seen before, and tbi3 may perhaps bring about, by the mere reaction of so noisome a scandal, a reform in our election methods. CONGRESS, of course, is practically doing nothing, the conventions engrossing the attention of most; of it 3 inembera. The Mills Bill, which is the embodiment of the AntiFrotection policy of the administration, is being vigorously tinkered by one member after another in favour of local industries, and has lost all semblance of its original shape. At tho beat, it waa but & very small stap towards absolute Freetrade, for it merely reduced the average of duties from 47 per cent of value, as at present, to 40 per cant. The principle involved, however, is more than enough to arouse enthusiasm, indignation, and a number of other political passions. Just in the thick of it has come the news of a State election in Oregon, which has hitherto been a State in which the Democrats have had a good fighting chance, and have occasionally won. Indeed, they did win m the election immediately previous to this by 3000 majority, and now they have lost by 4000. A similar percentage of change woxild give the Eepublicans 238,000 majority in the State of New York ; and it is considered that the sole issue in Oregon was the tariff. But, say the Freetrade Democrats, the Oregonians are but a small community depending largely on sheep raising for a living, and they will in time be educated np to the point of sacrificing their personal interests "for the good of the greatest number of their conntrymen. It can hardly be disguised, however, that the reverse has had a palpable effect in moderating the Preetrade zeal of the fifty Democratic members sitting for northern constituencies, and had it occurred just before,instead of just after the Democratic National Convention, the platform might have been a little less energetic in its endorsement of the President's policy. BUSINESS is dull and dispirited, as is almost necessarily the case amid the unwholesome excitement of a Presidential election. Mills and foundries and factories are everywhere closing up or working on short time, the employers having evidently made up their minds that if they are to be exposed to the full competition of European rivals they will start in with as small a stock of goods on hand as possible. The Democrats are already charging that in this course the manufacturers are actuated, not by necessity, or even prudence, but by a spiteful desire to make their workmen feel their dependence, and to stimulate them to vote the Protection ticket. Sensiblepersons, however fail to see, even if this be the case, that the manufacturers are greatly to be blamed. Whatever tho motive may bo, the effect is a growing number of unemployed persons, and a deepening stagnation in trade. The railroads are fighting fiercely for traffic at any rates that can be got, and this is always a sign of depression, i With only one or two exceptions, too, the j great trunk roads have reduced their rate ' of dividend ; and thus the usual outflow | of income ia checked, and even rich people begin to fear that they are growing poor and become correspondingly etingy. At the great centres there is A GLUT OF UNEMPLOYED CAPITAL seeking borrowers at anything not less than 1 per cent. And plain as is the steady tendency towards ever lower rates of interest, the price of all securities falls rather than rises — a surer sign than all others oJ failing confidence. Some financiers explain that this is largely the result of the many exposures made within the past few years of dishonest and incapable management, but everyone knows that, taken as a whole, American roads are in : infinitely safer hands now than in the days j j when Vanderbilt and Drew and Gould | I played ducks and drakes with other I people's property. Indeed, to-day, the first mortgage obligations of the great roads ought to command as high a price as the bonds of the National Government, for American law gives them absolute priority over all other lines; and they stand precisely as a mortgage on real estate. In England the wiser policy was i adopted of allowing such debentures to be superseded, as in the case of a bottomry bond on a vessel, -whenever a new loan j was clearly necessary for the preservation ior improvement of the property. An English railroad, therefore, is always able to raise money on reasonable terms, while an American road has to allow an enormous discount, after its first issues of bonds have been used up. This accounts in a great measure for the vast over-capi-talisation of American railroads, and the apparent low return yielded to this class of investment. Probably the real truth is that on all the older roads, the return on the capital actually Bunk is from 20 to 30 per cent, and we know that this is so on the New York Central and the Elevated Railroad. And of course the poor public, when groaning under the weight of excessive charges and tolls upon trade, are met by the railroads with the retort that money invested in railroads ought to pay as high an interest as it will command in other walks of trade, and so posterity pays for the lack of sagacity in its ancestors. There is only one hopeful sign in the present commercial situation, and that is the promise of abundant crops of wheat, maize, and cotton. The full effect of this, however, will hardly be felt until after the November election.