BAD TIMES.

Thames Star, Volume X, Issue 3128, 26 February 1879, Page 1

BAD TIMES.

It is natural that men should torn again and again, with some feeling, of dissatisfaction, to. the solution of the question, Why are we distressed Pi It is hard to understand how this calamity has befallen us. It is still harder to understand its justification.! "We cannot dispute about the fact. Evidence unfortu--1 nately comes in from every side to attest the restricted and unremunerative character of. our national industries and the national commerce. Trade is limited; wages have been reduced, and are yet to be reduced; profits hare for the time v anished. We may be told our experience is the experience of all the rest of the world; but there is rery-little consolation in thii thought. We put it aside with impatience and ask again what is the cause of thii depressed and stagnant condition of industrial enterprise. ? Is it our fault?' Have we done anything to deserve itP Some ardent members of the Opposition may be ready to declare that it is all owing to the existence of a Conservative Ministry, but it does not seem 'easy to prove the accuracy of this simple solution. It would probably be as near the truth as that Mr Gladstone and his colleagues maliciously contrived to leavvthis legacy of commercial and financial embarrassment for their successors. They made the people drunk with prosperity, and we are now going through the miserable morning, that follows. ; intoxication, jlhe explanation of the cause of, our present position must be a little'more complicated. Mr David Chad wick laid before the Social Science Congress at Chelten- , ham ten reasons for the distress that has prevailed with more or less urgency during the last four years. In this he was possibly more generous than was necessary. We could certainly do with less, and it would not, indeed, be difficult to reduce Mr Chadwick's causes to a smaller number. If we would be intelligible, we must try to be simple.; Every one can {Understand that the whole world, so far as it comes within the range of our commerce, is a big industrial machine. The centre of Africa and the central parts of Asia have' very little to do with it, but in China as much as in the United States/in India as much as in Australia, in Russia and along the valley of the Danube as in France and o% the banks .of the Shine, the whirring of rthe wheels ot a universal workshop may ordinarily be heard. A( ; a thousand, centres men, are, uniting their labor with the providence of nature to bring into fit condition the materials out of whiphwe get ,ourl food,,XoAr^l^hipi^lj^DXJJ^Al" ter, and all the commodities that satisfy the necessities or add to the enjoyments of'existence. If nature does not do her part, r man's industry is' disappointed; but nature ! mSy/'ibe ready and bountiful and certain, and her gifts will be vain, unless^man brings his labour, and unless hieiljis'it;''h'ir command the fruits of past labour to sustain him in the interval before the result,off hispresent industry becomes > perfected and. ripe, for con* sumption. Nature helping him, and with this stock of .supplies,. which >we call capital, at hand, man may go on producing merrily enough; and from' centre to centre 0* production there goes on a perpetual inter?aan« c of the surpluses j>ro» duced, until at iß**. tythe action of a 'mftchirierjr of which!/'*«^ aN % m ; P art» generally in an unconsou?! 18 '**$*[. there has been effected a distribution bnD«'^ home to each man the share that comfe.T *° him for. consumption and . subsistence. When each part of the machine works easily,.when every function is in a state <, of healthy activity; times-are good; There is an ample supply of its proper product in every producing centre ; but each jp(ood handful can' be exchanged for . a- good handful, and- those who fetch and carry are not stinted in their rations. The whole machine_is so big that a slight failure of production here or a slight failure there may not be perceptibly felt, except at the centres directly affected; still it is evident that we are contemplate i ing an immense inter-dependence of related, activities, and, an arrest of one great factor must be felt every where. Suppose a cchti-e-of production and exchange suddenly dropped out of existence; the workers in, the other parts of the • world would go on working until it is forced upou them by; the most painful experience that one of their accustomed exchanges is gone and their products accumulate upon themselves. A. cessation of demand to an extent that may be considered a comparatively small percentage can easily occasion a widespread dis- ■• organization of production; and if the cessation continues, there must needs be an unpleasant experience until'the different parts of the industrial machine become readjusted to the new condition of its

action

It may be regarded as a simple saying to declare Ibat the ultimate test of well* being is to be found in the quantity of the materials of life that are produced and distributed among the workers of the world; but if the meaning of the proposition is fully realised, the difficulty of understanding why wo, are distressed mubb be diminished. There are- fire causes, each of which may bring about industrial depression. The co-operation of nature may disappoint us. The provision of capital which is necessary to enable vi to work with nature and wait for her results—and by capital we do not mean (honey, but an accumulated stock of food, clothing, plant, tools,"'&c— may be want* ing from having been, thoughtlessly or ignorantly dissipated. Some centre of activity may be withdrawn, wholly or partially, from the great current of interchange through the self-will of those, who control it. The same thing may happen from (he opeiation of war. Lastly^nature may be ready, the necessary capital may be in existence, every commtraity may gladly enter the universal association of labour, but those to whom the capital belongs may be affected with a prudent or

UDprodent anxiety for its safe return if lent for use, and may determine to keep it for the time idly stored at home. We are now suffering from all these fire causes. Nature has been unkind for the last two or three years. We have had three bad har?ests in succession at home. There' has been a terrible famine in India, and one yet more terrible in China. "When people cannot buy food they cannot buy clothing, and our producers wait for the restoration^ these Eastern markets. Next we are suffering from a terrible waste of capital, partly at home, but chiefly in connexion with the United States. Our immense prosperity up to the end of 1873 coincided with the exaggerated expenditure of capital in , America, and came to an end with it. Railways were projected and built there in the most reckless fashion, and the demand for railways in England for American ex* porters sent up the price of iron and coal, as we may remember. All this occasioned great activity at the time. If building a new Tower of Babel were regarded as an excellent commercial speculation and prosecuted with corresponding activity, trade would be full of life until it was discovered—probably by the failure of some contractor—that the food of industry that should perpetually reproduce itself had been thrown away in heaping Up a useless collection of bricks and mortar. For nearly fire years the United States have been slowly recovering the crash of 1873. Their ; ordinary development has been arrested. The intaking of land slackened. Instead of being a home to which working men were - continually invited with the surety of constant employment, there was an actual reflux of labor to Europe. The intimacy of our relations with America,is such that we have felt the bad times of the States just as keenly as we shared their good fortunes. We need not recall the names of the" other countries where Englishmen sent their capital and lost it. The third cause of depression is to be found in the wilful withdrawal of nations from the circle of international exchange. We cannot, indeed, say that this has been as yet active to increase the depression that arose from other causes. The tariffs of other countries 1 are all tainted with the fallacies of protection, but we cannot point to. any increase of duties that has come into operation. The tariffs of to-day are much the same as they were five years ago, but it is a miserable commentary on the economic education of free nations that we should hear from all sides announcements of the intention to pursue, the policy of improving the too^restricted trade of the world by making it more, difficult. Commerce is for the time not prosperous, and it is to be made more prosperous by being more fettered. A majority of the German Reichstag have thus demonstrated the intelligence and education of that great nation! Aggravated tariffs are yet to come. These may, perhaps, be avoided; but from war we have suffered, and, as we are told, we must suffer. There remains the passing collapse of credit. Trade has been proved to be so remunerative in so many directions by the failure of merchants of all kinds tbat the capitalists by whose assistance merchants are supported have begun to distrust everybody. They are anxious and fearful, and rumours of fresh wars add to their disquiet. The experience of similar phases of feeling might lead us to believe that this want of confidence would soon disappear if fresh occasions of alarm did not arise to keep it alive. J

An examination of the causes of our distress seems to induce the belief that we might be getting better, and should be getting better, if it were not for the perversity of men. The harvests of this year have been generally good, and nature is again benignant. The great waste of capital in the years preceeding 1874 has been repaired in the United States, and there is every sign of recovering activity on the part of that great community as a factor in the world of industry and commerce. Confidence again would revive if hostile influence were removed, and it is to the encouragement given to these influences that a continuance of a period of distrust must be ascribed. The follies of protection must impede the development of commerce, but the follies and wickedness of war do more than restrict development —they cripple and destroy the life 'that had come into existence. It is here that we perceive the part that Governments may play in promoting or undoing the well-being of nations. In the most favourable circumstances, we have before us a winter that must occasion anxiety in all who have the power to forecast the future; but the dark picture may become yet more dark, the means that must be straitened may becomeyetmore straitened, if statesmen are not wise enough to per* ceive and courageous enough to pursue the path of ■wisdom. The* responsibility upon them will be great if through any fault of omission or commission on their part.they fail to remove all the obstacles that can be removed to the restoration of a healthful industrial life among nations.