The Timaru Herald FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2. 19-1.5. Europe’s Livestock Problem

Timaru Herald, Volume CLVIII, Issue 23347, 2 November 1945, Page 4

The Timaru Herald FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2. 19-1.5. Europe’s Livestock Problem

'J’HE reduction in the output of food crops and their uneven distribution have caused a fall in the world's livestock, and. hence, a shortage of meat, fats and dairy produce. The reduction has been concentrated in Europe, which has suffered a fall in the production as well as in the import of feeding stuffs. The number of pigs and poultry was drastically curtailed during the war; cattle herds were maintained nearer pre-war levels—though not in Russia—until the summer of last year, but since then they, too, have been decimated in most countries because, in the competition for cereals and root crops between human beings and animals, human beings come first. The increase in the livestock of the United States, Canada and Argentina, though substantial, was not proportionate to the reduction in Europe; it was sufficient to meet the needs of the Allied armies, and to offset, in part, the fall of meat production in Britain. But since 1944 the pig herds of the United States have been on the decline, a trend thought likelv to continue into 1946. The task now is to reconstitute Europe’s livestock, and this, in turn, is largely a matter of the supply of food available for animal consumption. Before the war the main exporters of feeding cereals—chiefly maize, barlev and oats —we|e Argentina, Canada and the Danubian countries. Argentina was the main source of maize exports. In spite of the failure of the 1942-43 crop, the average maize harvest in that country during 1940-44 was as high as before the war. But the loss of the Continental market and the shortage of shinning led to a surplus of maize which, like linseed, was increasingIv used as fuel. Unfortunately, when the time came for Argentina to resume her role as a heavy exporter, the crop failed; the latest estimate of the maize crop is only 2.9 million tons, against an average yield of 7.5 ■million tons during 1940-41. During 1934-39, Argentina exported on an average, no less than 6.1 million tons of maize a year. In North America, the United States was, on balance, a small importer of feeding sluffs,- but Canada was a heavy exporter. Current estimates reveal a sharp decline in the maize crop of the United States, from <12.0 million tons in 1941 to 71.1 million tons in 1915; the barley crop. too. is expected to be smaller, 5 9 million tons, against 6.2 million. These reductions are only compensated to a small extent bv the heavier oat crops, which, at 22.4 million tons, compares with one of 16.9 million tons last year. 1 his years smeller supplies have meant a smaller live stock production programme, and that, incidentally, will mean less meat and animal fats, such as lard and butter. Canada has been the most important wartime supplier of cereals to Great Britain and the United States, though, by comparison with Argentina’s prewar maize evnorts. the increase in the shipments of Canada remained small; exports of barley rose from 185.000 tons a vety during 1934-39 Io 412.000 tons in the year ended June, 1943, and 907.000 tons in 1943-44, while those of oats increased from 100,000 tons a vear before the war to 376,000 in 1912-43 and 079.000 tons in 1943-44. An increase in the acreage under barley and oats may bring a heavier crop this year, but the quantities available for export will depend on the size of the meat and bacon production programmes, which have been appreciably expanded during the war.

Little can be expected this year from Danubian countries, formerly next to Argentina in importance as exporters of maize and barlev. Their cereal crops are reported to be poor this vear. and the reduction in wheat supplies will mean that larger quantities of maize and barley will have to be earmarked for human consumption. Apart from cereals, the stipplv of oilcake, a high quality cattle food, is also likely to be small, hi 1938. the British consumption of imported oilcake, oilcake produced from imported oilseeds and imported grain offals, was 2.7 million tons. In the same vear, France, Holland, Belgium. Denmark, Norway and Sweden consumed together 1.5 milloin tons, which approximately, was also the intake of Germany. At present, there is a marked shortage of oilcake, even in Great Britain, ami on the Continent the oil crushing industry cannot be developed again

at short notice. The picture, then, is one of export shortages of all the principal feedin" stulls in the immediate future. Argentina may be able to ship maize in small quantities, and Canada barley and oats. But it is doubtful whether total exports during the 1945-46 season will exceed a third of the 12.5 million tons feeding "rains that entered international Trade in 1938. During periods of surplus production, wheat, too, is extensively used as a feeding grain. But, although supplies in North America will permit of heavy shipments, the shortage of bread grain in Europe is such that the export ol wheat for feeding to animals can hardly be contemplated. The prospect of an early reconstitution of Europe’s livestock population is not bright; indeed, the Usk can hardly he begun during 194.1-16. Both domestic production (except in the United Kingdom) and imports ol maize, barlev and oats —the chiel feeding grains— are likelv to be much smaller than before the war. Then, the countries of Western Europe (inclusive of Germany and Austria) covered their needs of feedin" grains as to three-quarters from domestic production and one-quarter from imports. During 1934-38 the com Lined output of these countries was 32.9 million lons a year, and, during approximately the same period, their imports were 11.1 million tons. This year’s Continental harvests may

yiclil no more limn two-lllirrls of tlie pre-war average, ami imports in 1915-16 limy mil exceed one-third of [lie former lolals.