The Timaru Herald THURSDAY, JULY 19, 1945. Problem Of Japan’s Population

Timaru Herald, Volume CLVIII, Issue 23257, 19 July 1945, Page 4

The Timaru Herald THURSDAY, JULY 19, 1945. Problem Of Japan’s Population

JT has been reported by llie Washington correspondent of the .New 4ork Herald-I'i ibune that the United States Government is now giving special consideration to the precise definition of unconditional surrender as it would apply to Japan. It is suggested that the first condition would be the return of all territories seized by force, then the fleet and the air force would be destroyed and heavy industries capable of producing aircraft and munitions would have to be eliminated. If these terms were acceptable to Japan it might not be necessary for the Allies to invade or occupy the country. The Japanese people would then be left to manage their own internal, political, economic and social affairs.

Japan in defeat will present a problem to the Allies, a greater and more complex one than that presented by Germany. If the Japanese are driven from the lands they have forcibly occupied during the past decade they will need to return to the homeland, and if the homeland is industrially disorganised by the growing weight of the Allied air and naval attacks, then the country will be deprived of part of the resources upon which the population depends for life. Population is th" central fact of any consideration of the prospective future of the Japanese people. In 1910 the total population of the Japanese Empire was 105.000,000 and that of Japan Proper exceeded 73,000,000. Between 1929 and 1937 the natural increase of population (excess of births over deaths! averaged a little more than 920.000. Net increases in population over the five-year period 1929-33 averaged considerably more than those experienced by the United States or by the nations *of Western and Northern Europe combined. There are some vital questions concerning Japanese population to be answered. Is the more recent growth of population unprecedented? Has it followed the expansion patterns of industrialising countries in Europe and of the United States, or are new’ trends in progress which presage over-population serious amt unmistakable? For at least a century before Commodore Perry’s treaty with Tokugawan Japan, the estimated population of the secluded, archipelago varied between 28,000,000 and 33,000,000. A feudal economy, natural and epidemic calamities, high infant mortality and general death rates, and the common practice of infanticide and abortion offer sufficient explanation. However, Japan was introduced ino a society of competing nations and soon began to apply scientific techniques in the fields of medicine, public health, industry, commerce, agriculture, government, defence and education. Not only did medicine and sanitation reduce the death rate, but infanticide was prohibited by law, and, through the transition, ancient attitudes towards the perpetuation of the family were retained. The Imperial Restoration in 1868 was followed in 1871. by the abolition of feudalism, though many traces of the system lingered. In the course of the next 60 years Japanese population doubled.

Although there has been substantial population increase in recent years there are signs of a fall in the birth-rate such as is to be expected in any country undergoing the processes of urbanisation and industrialisation. Between 1913 and 1935 the growth in population of cities more than 30,000 in size was about ] 1,000,000, equal to the country’s entire population gain. Japan’s cities of more than 100,000 population numbered only 16 in 1920 but were 45 in 1910. It has been estimated that more than half the Japanese now live in cities ol more than 10,000 population. It has also been stated officially in Japan that before the war a 60 to 40 ratio exists between the urban and rural population totals. It is, of course, impossible to know whether these proportions would be preserved in the post-war period. lhe urban drift, if the experience of other countries provides a reliable guide, will result in a reduction o( population. but not on a sufficient scale to remove social and economic dangers.

When Japan is (Ideated the argument that her millions will be stilled w ill be revived even more vigorously. Therefore the Allies will have some responsibility in helping the Japanese to reorganise their country so that it can travel easily in the ways of peace. One thing certain is that the population cannot be left to starve. The Japanese would need to have access to markets for their manufactures and access to supplies of necessary raw materials. Cooperation will be necessary to give the Japanese a chance to succeed in the readjustments necessary provide a large population with its legitimate aspiration for an adequate standard of living. Unless, this requirement is met Japan will certainly attempt to rise again after her defeat.