The Timaru Herald MONDAY, JUNE 28, 1943. PACIFIC PORTENTS

Timaru Herald, Volume CLIII, Issue 22620, 28 June 1943, Page 4

The Timaru Herald MONDAY, JUNE 28, 1943. PACIFIC PORTENTS

TO his reiterated statement that the Japanese will not be able to invade the Commonwealth, the Prime Minister of Australia, Mr .1. Curtin, has added the significant clause that this declaration “is based on knowledge of resources available.” The damage inflicted recently on Japanese aircraft and bases indicates that Mr Curtin has not recklessly departed from his customary caution. Before making any pronouncement on military matters, he must discuss the question with General MacArthur. It is therefore unlikely that the American leader was not consulted before Mr Curtin spoke. Proof that there is substance in Mr Curtin’s confidence is furnished by the sensational losses Japanese aircraft have suffered in recent operations. Ninetyfour planes lost out of 120 over Guadalcanal; 22 out of 48 over Darwin and 23 out of 36 over New Guinea. All this adds weight to the surmise that big movements are pending in the Pacific.

For such action the Americans must be well prepared, since they have good reason to know that the task ahead of them is not easy. For years past, Japan has been systematically training her troops in the art of jungle warfare. The skill and the rapidity of Japan’s inarch through Malaya and Java, and the difficulty of driving her men out of Buna and Guadalcanal, shows how well these lessons have been learned. The Japanese have had many months to consolidate their island holdings against that inevitable counterassault for which they know the United Nations are steadily preparing. Each day conies news of aerial attacks on Japanese bases, but it is also reported that for every airfield they had in these islands some months ago, the Japanese now have a score. Although only an outpost, it took months to dislodge the enemy from Guadalcanal, and even yet they have not been cleared from the Solomons. Each defensive ring guarding the Japanese homeland, the Philippines, the Caroline, the Marianas, and the Bonin Island, must be broken down. With each stage fighting will become more intense, for the nearer the islands to Japan, the stronger their fortifications and the more fanatically they will be defended.

Knowing the difficulties, the South Pacific command has been content to fight a more or less defensive battle until the men and material necessary for such a task have been assembled. At Midway and in the Coral seas, Japan received stinging blows, but there should be no delusion about the strength of the Japanese fleet. The Japanese navy is still intact, backed by the shelter of strong bases. If the defeat of the Japanese Empire is to be by the gradual, limping process of island conquest; then the war against the Japanese will he costly in time, men and material. Perhaps more than is the case with Germany, the war against Japan must be largely an aerial one. Both Japan and her enemies have had bitter reason to appreciate the fact that land-based aeroplanes enjoy infinite advantage over carrier-born aricraft, but unless the process of island to island conquest is adopted, then the United Nations must rely on carriers. Nevertheless, the work of building up strength in this area by the United Nations, and the Japanese, has not been going on for nothing. The words of warning and of promise from both the United Nations and the Japanese statesmen are the straws which indicate that the wind is blowing towards offensive action in the South Pacific.

EIRE ELECTION ALTHOUGH the Eire general election has deprived Mr De Valera’s party of the absolute majority it had in the old Dail, there is not likely to be any radical change in policy, and certainly no change in foreign policy can be anticipated. A Dublin correspondent, writing in the Economist last year, said: “There would appear to be little distinction, even of emphasis, between the unswerving neutrality, or the grounds on which it is based, of the Government party, Fianna Fail, of Fine Gael, the opposition party led by Mr Cosgrave, or of the small Labour party. A very high proportion of the nation is solidly behind neutrality and, within this body of opinion, hopes and fears for the outcome of the war are dictated by personal, not party, group or class factors. The Irish arc intensely individualist, arid their actual or probable reactions to any situation defy any but the broadest classification. Outside the main body of neutrality supporters, there remain two groups of ‘nterventionists’: the heirs of the protestant unionist tradition, who would probably be glad to see Eire among the United Nations; and the modern I.RA., posing as heirs of the republican tradition, who are to-day proGerman. These two groups, which, on matters of foreign policy constitute the real opposition, appear to be completely untypical. The majority do want the Allies to win; and

this aspiration takes practical form. Although the Government maintains rigid neutrality, the absence of a Foreign Enlistment Act permits men and women of working age to serve, in large numbers, in the British forces, or to work in British war factories.” Both Mr De Valera and Mr Cosgrave have lost approximately the same number ol seats and considerable progress has been made by the Labour Party and the independents. Reaction against the Government is probably attributable to domestic reasons, for the economy of Eire has undergone severe changes in the past rear or two. Economically, the country has suffered from all the disadvantages of being at war, with none of the compensations. Reports substantiate a belief that where the elementary necessities of life are concerned, Eire is suffering more

lliari bclligeidil Brilain. The four uommoililirs staled Io he in shortest supply are bread, lea. fuel ami newsprint. The hist Iwo alfect the poorer clashes, in town and country, wilh disproportionate severity. There is a marked eonlraul between the rich and lhe poor. Ihe rich can obtain the commodities ihey require al a price, but lhe poor an- left lacking. The class gap has widened in Eire whereas in Brilain il has been narrowed by lhe war. This fact probably accounts for the progress made by lhe Labour party. l he return of a small farmers’ group is also a sign of dissatisfaction with \1 r De Valera's agriculture policy which aimed al making lhe country celf-suOicienl Io lhe detriment of overseas I rude.