The Timaru Herald. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 1939 Italy Apprehensive

Timaru Herald, Volume CXLVII, Issue 21507, 21 November 1939, Page 6

The Timaru Herald. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 1939 Italy Apprehensive

THE reported radio declaration from Koine that Italy would “resist immediately any attempt to introduce Communism into the Balkans” shows that she is genuinely apprehensive about the next move to be made by the Soviet, and she has every reason for being so. In recent months, and for years past, it had been thought that the conflict of interests in the Balkans was between Germany and the Western Powers, with Italy playing a secondary role on Germany’s side. British commercial and diplomatic policies were designed to meet an expected German drive for domination in the Balkans. But with astounding rapidity the whole situation has been altered in the past month or two, for Russia has taken the place of the Western Powers as Germany’s Balkan rival. Soviet interest in the Balkans was revealed by the intense diplomatic activity following the outbreak of war, and as far as the Russian Balkan aspirations were concerned the summoning of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Moscow was of major importance. To facilitate Russia’s prospective plans the goodwill of Turkey is essential. There are two considerations which Stalin has to keep in mind. First, that the advance of Germany must be stayed if a Balkan status favourable to Russia is to be assured; second, that the position of Turkey in the Mediterranean must not be weakened.

There are more than the diplomatic preliminaries to engage Stalin’s attention if he is working towards Balkan domination. lie would have to compensate the Nazis for losing a sphere of nfluence upon which they have set their hearts. This he could do by diplomatic or economic concessions, or by a combination of both. It is possible, of course, that he would not worry about compensation at all. The Nazis aspired to control of the Baltic area which they have now lost irretrievably to Russia, and it may be that Stalin, coldly indifferent, in spite of the August pact to a Germany heavily engaged elsewhere, will attempt to go his aggrandising way just as he did in the Baltic. But there is the position of Italy to be considered, and the signs of restiveness in Rome indicate a belief that something akin to a crisis is approaching. Italy would wish for extension of Soviet influence in the Balkans even less than Germany, since she would get no compensation. Her potential field of expansion, in the event of Russia advancing in the Near East, would be limited to North Africa, and her seizure of Albania would be deprived of most of its value, The Moscow correspondent of the New Yorfc Times lias stated that there is nothing to suggest the revival of native Communism in the Balkans, so the Italian declaration points unmistakably to a fear of the Communism that would be carried there by the Soviet Union. The most obvious and most certain effect of these new developments is the further weakening of the Rome-Berlin axis, if it can even be said to exist now. Germany is in the exceedingly unhappy position of having to concede whatever Stalin demands, and any further concessions by the Nazis must involve the growth of Russian Balkan influence. What Italy’s reaction to this is now known. The arch diplomatic muddler von Ribbentrop has landed the Nazis into an unenviable plight. They have gained a pseudo-friend the dimensions of whose appetite they do not know and whose aspirations they cannot trust; in compensation for this they have lost the friendship of Italy and as time goes on they may even incur direct Italian enmity.