The Timaru Herald. SATURDAY, JULY 18, 1908. A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA.

Timaru Herald, Volume XIIC, Issue 13650, 18 July 1908, Page 4

The Timaru Herald. SATURDAY, JULY 18, 1908. A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA.

Should tho legislature of Cape Colony follow' Hie lead proposed by Dr Viljoen, iiml suspend arrangements with Australia in retaliation for tllie. exclusion: of South African fod'der from the Common wealth, tho result will unquestionably ho a pretty severe blow to the export trade of tins island continent. Last . month the Melbourne "Argus" printed returns showing how Australian exports to South Africa had fared during 1907, tho only complete year in which (he treaty of reciprocity witih the (Jape h;ol operated. The returns disclosed somi? really surprising results, showing that iha convention had meant, solid advantage ro Australia. South Africa is overtaking by her own supplies her demand for food,.and tihe food : and drink imported' from all countries shrank from a valufc of £8,109,233 in 1906 lo £6,781,523 in 1907. The decrease was over 16 per cent. Yet imports from Australia, remained almost stationary, being £1,773.134 in 1907, ar, against, £1,787,681 in the previous year. The Commonwealth's principal competitors in tht- South African markeli for the supply of articles of food and drink have been the United States and the Argentine, nnd the returns give eloquent testimony to tihe value of tho reciprocal arrangement negotiated between tho two British communities a couple of yeans ago. While Australia held her position in the. trade; of South Africa with 1% million pounds sterling, the Argentine exports to the Capo fell from £794,195 to £422,832—a drop of nearly 47 per cent. —-and United' Slates exports from £679.953 to £336,917 a decrease of more than 50 per cent. It ran therefore be seen at a glance what the Commonwealth >.iands to lose.if Dr Viljoen's suggestion .'ecures the approval of the. Cape Parliament. Had the Australian trade with South Africa declined in proportion to ihab of the United Skates,- Ar.fitralian exporters would last year have lost £900,000 worth of business. The suggestion of retaliation from Capetown is therefore nob an empty threat. Of course it is a question for tho Federal authorities whether tho volume of the export, trade with South Africa warrants the risk involved in. "the admission of fodder from fhe other party to the convention: We are not familiar with .the reasons for its exclusion, but it has something to do with an outbreak of snmei fornt of stock disease in a district of Capo Colony, the risk of transmission of which to Australia through importations of fodder must be somewhat serious when (he Federal authorities have- placed au embargo the South African rthiplneiits! Tho introduction or a new disease among her flocks and herds would ' be. a heavy price to pay even for thivlj million, pounds worth of trade which Australia lias- established with the Cape. It is contended in Capetown that Australia would 'be sufficiently protected if .shipments were accompanied byk Government certificates:, that tho fodder came from iion-aillected areas,, and the local, re» presentaliveis , qf, A,ustiitilian. export funis . have supported that contention.. It" is obvious, however, tha.b the Coirsnnmvealdi will need to be very careful about, relaxing its restrictions, because the English Board of Trade has taken cognisance of the outbreak of'disease in South Africa, and from similarity of climate, Australia is more, likely than Britain to offer ti foothold to undesirable'germs. At the same lime the political effect of tho (rouble oannofc be overlooked, ni> it gives promise of rupturing every sort of relation between the Cape and the Commonwealth. When the . Federal Government was negotiating the reciprocity treaty with Hie South African Customs Convention in 1906, it, specially invited South Africa to send hay and fodder to Australia under a preferential tariff. This .invitation, held out to South Africans asan inducement to enter" into a Ireaty with Australia, .was accompanied hy no warning that such exports miglib lie prohibited on their arrival in Australian por'fi, so that Iho way, has been left open for fhe people at the Cape to complain than they have been deluded into making the .treaty which they are now talking of repudiating.