WOOL SALE PROSPECTS.

Timaru Herald, Volume XIC, Issue 13448, 21 November 1907, Page 2

WOOL SALE PROSPECTS.

Press Association-By Telegraph-Copyright LONDON, November 20. For ihi'. forthcoming .London and Colonial wool sales 154,a0 baks have arrived whereof 70C0 have b-en tent direct to tin- manufacturer*, leaving 125,C00 -biles available for sale. P« Press Association. CHRISTCHURCH, Nov. 23. The first wool salt- of the .series will be held to-morrow; 5538 bales ale catalogued. LOCAL OPINIONS.

In view of the iin;t wool sale of the Tiuiaru season being fixed for Wednesday next, and of the diop in prices, averaging 10 per cent,, in-ported to have b.en experienced at 'the Wellington wool sale last Friday, a, "Herald" representative yoht.erd.iy • made some inquiry regarding the anticipations formed concerning the probable state of the market here next w«k. A perusal of the several reports of the Wellington brokers shows that with cue exception tky contended themselves with reporting the* actual state of the market. Levin and Co., however, went a littZe further. In thsir report they r.ay : " , " "The pie.-jent sales are being held under entirely different market conditions to-last season. Last, year we experienced a rising market, and there-- was strong confidence felt as to the future!.• .Growers who cEold at the. local saks' benefited very greatly as compared with those who shipped to London, as it was shown subsequcntry that the London market did not warrant the prices which had been paid here. Oi these, grounds alone it was reasonable to expect lower pricesto rule here this season, bub on top of this hae come the financial crisis in America, and "a. stringency in the n:oney - markets of the world which must have the tiled of curtailing credit and reducing values of products. Under-these circumstances it is not surprising that prices have come down Id to l£d • as compared' with lai-.t year, in fact, a lower range might have been looked for, but for .the fact that the condition of the offerings at" this r;ale helped to maintain prices. Dingy and inferior wool felt the fall most severely, a.s much as 2d pea*.-lb being shown on this class. Advices from Lonrhin are that an early recovery is not' looked- for and in view of the uncertainty of the; future: and that- prices here .are 'still comparatively good and -the average for a Berks of years, we think: farr nierswould do well to sell locally, and make sure of what '.is. going.-', ' ■■'.'•;. - There -was ;a 'large proportion' .of ■■.witlldrawals, and tlie ' firms remark ;pn; these that "owners have, not realised that .wool has considerably ' receded ... in value'"; "prices offered by buyers wertvpii. a pax with the Jute.'t; advices .'from London"-; "as was-expEcted,- prices show a considerate shrinkage- as compared, with..last .-peason, for which most- growers', are not yet prepared,", ;. ." ■;.■:":• '•; ■., "'■; - : j •■-\y\. '•■ Mr Newman, manager of theC'Fip.A:, when asked for bis opinion -on the" outlook, said, that there was now no. doubt that last- year's .prices were somewhat, in" excess of values in the colony, and ;thei buyers will naturally.be much more Wary thu year, and they wilL try depress prices as much as 'possible. There does; not seem to ■ be' any alteration; in the statistical position. The demand for wool is evidently fuUy keeping pvi.ee. with the supply, and there is nothing- to justify orexplain the heavy drop in prices' at the first sale in the colony, except the financial crisis in America, which lias caused an unwonted .vtriugenecy in the money market in England. The., first line of produce to be affected must ba -wool, and then wheat. Latest cables,.advice:.Vfrom Home had indicated that the prevalent opinion. was that as' soon /. as' the trouble had 'blown oyer, tlie.markets; would, xapidly recover:" Mr Newman saw no." reason t;>/ anticipate that th? -American 'crisis would -last- long; arid . recovery would bfe as rapid perhai>s as the fall had beenl It; is really imijossibki however,- at- 'this distance, and from the mere scraps of information sent us,; to" form ';a . definite opinion ,rs:the.-causes or the probable effects of'the smash in America. It.is quite easy however to understand thatwhile the. trouble lasts the: wool market will, be injuriously affected, from the produc f "'s p~' it- ofview. The American buyers " . i .".unable to oMain the money nee- 1 , buying, and 1 the' English arid Cont . buyers, relieved from: Americ can .... _-;tition, will seek to take advantage of the.;fact. - But the American crisis appears to. be tapering off,r and possibly by the -date, of the' second; wool sale [the first week iri January) prices may-: have returned to -the same levelasi last year: it- could scarcely-.be considered good business to sell in a market, when the indications!-are that the depression is due to external causes that are icertl'aan tto -diJsa.ppear. . Personally therefore,;-! if he were an owner,'he would not sell at ths ; first : 'Six.weeks might make all the difference, in the tone of the market.- The catalogues;, close pn'Satiirday, and Mr Newman anticipated© a.'smaller entry than usual, partly on account of delays in shearing. . . k , : ~l ' A farmer who has .shipped his wool Horn a for'' a' few years past; and intends to do. so tliis" year,; and.,; who therefc-rei mighfc.be expected, to take a-. dcisdnteresfect v'iew of the question," attributed the .der cHne in prices at Wellington wholly-to, the state of the .financial world in Britain: and America. Wool buyers need a great deal of financing, and when money,.-is dear 'the buyers must .be 'restricted' iii. their operations. The consumers of wooL the spinners, would >.doubtless ' prefer -to adopt a policy' of buying' fr'dm. hand ito , mouth, though, there would: be some; risk of having to pay more,- 1 rather.-than- pay a high price for ;accpmmodatiori to. pur-, chase for future '. retirements. As '.a grower and shipper, he declined to offer a word of advice to .others; ■ the advisability of selling at on'pe ! or'holding on. - -'.•'-:...■ '■.'■.-■ ." ■ - .

The Wellington " Post-," iwriting. on the decline of 10 per cent.; in the .prices/■ of wool at last Friday's 7 sale: in that th? first sale of the ■ seaspiv—siiys tha,t"most coniinercial authorities the idea that the decline-was due to the '.beginning pf a permanent fall ? in wool 'values, - and attribute it "to the temporary financial stringency at the-, world's money cent'r&D. Stocks ai-e light,- spimieis.want- wool, but .wool needs financing, and when-the disorder in the'money market has disappeared the 10 per cent, drop in prices "ought J to be recovered from.. -'Every'day helps the lenewal of confidence in America..' Accordingly, the. less wool .-auctioned;-locally at present, the' better, .and- those'.-.growers who- relieve the. market.'by ~shipping to London, for rthe January salesrnot oriy help to steady matters'.here, biit; may be helping IheiiKeiv-es to higher prices. Anywav, the- tendency-in .certain-, quarters,-; to' regard the decline :as a permanent feature ■<f, the -wool values, 'is to''-be. deprecated. This merely strengthens' the wool-buyeis, who certainly are not averse to depressing prices 'at'-,the openiiig T»les."- ; - • •The-" New' Zealand Times; of .the. fol-v lowing day expresses ah- opposite opinipnl to- the--" Evening."Post " .and, with evi-' dent.'reference.;;;to": the 'above -.; paragraph,-sa-,T3 :—-An ; absolutely, falsa .impr-eissicHrilias: b.-eii' created' : :Tj.yV'^atementi3'.tovthe' ; jcffetif that the decliiie iri 'values ~cf .crossbred, wools realisad at-;. the." opening, sale'.of tlie sea'sen ever thpse ruling at the correspond-' itfg' date; of: last 'year, is .';a"result' of 'the--financial"crisis' in 'America; : that''" as soon

a* the money Market regains it normal tune the - position will tight itself? and growers, would be wt'll advi'td to ship their wool to- London for the January sales. These i-fiilentents have been made with no knowledge of the history of troubled wool Markets dining the* prist six months. A a mutter of fact, the ••full", rctofded iv,i> no fall at all, but war, the Value ruling for tile cksenplion ot wool in qu-cStion for somei l-iino past. The article goes on to deal with a change of fashion which has turned attention to the finct wools?, bringing down the valuis of courses, while "merino wool has just been sold On the .Sydney market at the highest price recorded for that description for sonic yeaiii." "Of comue, savii the. "Times," the American crisis will probably ah\cfr values of all wools, but. when the 'financial world is again stable there, is no reason to suppose 'the medium and coar.se.. crossbreds will immediately regain the pciiition they occupied last January. The, actual position is that, in view of the increased demand for finer and a- corresponding decline for coarixr* descriptions of wool, the prices of last week were highly satisfactory, and exhibited no decline on the values ruling for them in'Bri'tain for months past. As to the future the decided trend to finer fabrics in the. consuming centres of the world points to the probability that a, stronger market for crossbreds is not probable in the immediate future.;-' The' advice we give ..producers in these- wlumiiß on Saturday, last, to;"change their wool into gold at the earliest : opportunity, was Sound'." ~'.■,