The Timaru Herald FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 1907. DEAR WHEAT.

Timaru Herald, Volume XIC, Issue 13420, 18 October 1907, Page 4

The Timaru Herald FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 1907. DEAR WHEAT.

■ The. member: for JHuruiiui .appears.. to have; : been more confident;, in predicting a fwi tlu-r rise, in wheat than; most of those 4iy\ ; : whom the subject lias been discussed; ; during the last few riiontlis. " Anyone ; with the slightest 'foresight," said . JVlrj' : Rutlierfoid, •"nnist: see' ihat" wheat wasj ! going to be dearer." Our parliamentary! correspondent's report of . Mi- Rutherford's i speech probably does him some, injustice; by its brevity, for it aa scarcely likely! that -he would predict a substantial'in- ! crease in the price of- the cereal even if j the farmers of Canterbury went out of; cropping altogether., That there is a j tendency in that direction, duo to the! ease arid profit of farming, ig'_ of; course lindeniaßie, while. ii is equally cer- ! tain that the prospect of' labour troubles will not tempt , landholders to increase the areas they have been in the habit of putting under crop.. _But the present Condition of the wheat markets k due to bigger and more general causes than the gradual abandonment of cropping, in Canterbury, and we daresay the price would not be greatly affected if Mr Rutherford's prediction were fulfilled, arid tile farmers of this province were to Isave wheat. alone and confine their attention to the production of meat and dairy produce. In comparison with the calamities (Which have, with remarkable : unanimity,, overtaken the great wheat-producing districts of Europe, America, India, and Australia, the shrinkage of cultivation in Canterbury lriay be regarded as a negligible factor so far as the. determination of the price is concerned. Under the prchent circumstances, the loaf would probably be just as dear in Timaru to-day if the profits of tlie, sheep industry and the activity of the I labour unions had not combined to discouraga tha raising of crops. Bub for a full appreciation of the effects of the shortage in the world's supply and the more general demand for what is available, one muGty us a paragraph in today's news columns jioints - out, turn ,to Germany, where the pressure on the consumer is more severe than' in any other country. This is due partly to the' failure of the homa harvest, and partly to the highly protective tariff which the Germans have placed upon their foodstuffs for the benefit of their own agriculturists. The tariff which took effect on March Ist of last year raised the duty on wheat from ll£d to Is 6d per bushel, which of course makes itself folfc most severely when the failure of the local crops necessitates an increase ill the volume of imports. As early as June .it was ai>parent that a bad harvest, in Germany was inevitable, the yield being estimated at only eleven million .quarters as against eighteen millions last year,' leaving fourteen million quarters to bo supplied from foreign sources. Even in normal seasons, the local production. lias for several years'past fallen short of the consumption owing ti\ the fact that while the population has steadily increased and the taste for white bread has been widely extended, the rate of production has relatively made but, slow progress. Fifteen years ago the:) German consumption of wheat was only about eighteen million quarters annually, while now it: lias risen to about, twenty-five million quarters. On the other hand, the local production

for ihn ]««(, fivo yearn luih not. jtwragwl more than eighteen million quarters, -while the imports arc now about thiva times as large as (Ik'v wem in flu* eighties, wlnn they averaged a. lit.tlo over Iwo million quarters pr annum. This year, however, quite half tho wheat immjnirei\ hy (lermany has io lie obtained fnuiv abroad, at. a timwhen tho producing countries aiv poorly equipped Io meet, the <'Xtra. demand. High prions to the producers, coupled with the heavy duty imposed upon the wheat as it. past>eis into (lirmany, malcp the lot of the eonsumer far from enviable, and may possibly lead to important political consequences in the way of tariff alterations!.