The Daily News. THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17. THE WAR.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LV, Issue 128, 17 October 1912, Page 4

The Daily News. THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17. THE WAR.

To those who have not been students of European politics, the position in the Balkan States is distinctly involved, and, as one local commentator remarked yesterday at the street corner, it is "as mixed as an Irish stew and as mysterious as a sausage." This homely metaphor is not inapt, but the position is, nevertheless, susceptible of some explanation. Turkey has always been regarded as ''the sick man of Europe," and it is singular how many international complications of recent years have centred round her waywardness and her whimsical estimate of political morality. The Great Powers in this instance have failed .signally to preserve peace, and the old question of the partition of Turkey threatens much graver complications than are involved in a mere conflict among the Balkan States. Britain is probably the only Power which has been honestly desirous of securing administrative reforms in Macedonia without destroying the authority of the Sultan, having nothing to gain by the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire, and something to lose in the event of Turkish territory passing into possibly hostile hands. France and Germany have little more than commercial interests in the Balkan I Peninsula, but Prance is pledged to further the policy of her treaty ally, Russia, while Germany is not only concerned for her valuable concessions in Asia Minor, but committed to the support of her ally, Austria. This at once provokes a diplomatic rivalry between Austria and Russia, whilst it is also well to remember that Italy has long had the ambition of extending her territory across the Adriatic and obtaining access to the fertile plains of Macedonia. The Italian press and people were bitterly incensed by the Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The popular Italian

view of this incident was that Italy had been tricked in some way out of her fair share of the good things to he picked up on the opposing Adriatic coast; the wisdom of adhering to the Triple Alliance was widely questioned. Notoriously, Tripoli was assigned to Italy by the Triple Alliance in compensation for her previous disappointments and to strengthen her wavering fidelity, but it is questionable if the Italians are convinced that this generous gift from Austria and Germany at Turkey's expense fully discharges their claim to consideration. Germany's relations to Austria and Italy are delicate. The understanding between France and Britain makes it more necessary than ever that she should be able to create a diversion in the south-east of France and hold the French fleet in the Mediterranean when she makes her long contemplated bid for the mastery of the North Sea. With Austria to aasist her against Russia and Italy to assist her against France, Germany would be in a strong military position, but no bargain can be wholly one-sided, and Germany in her turn must assist Austrian and Italian designs. How are Austrian and Italian hopes and designs in the Balkans to be harmonised if the dismemberment of Turkey is commenced by the Balkan States, especially in' view of the fact that every ambitious Power much prefers to place a weak State in temporary possession of coveted territory rather than see it absorbed by a great and powerful empire? Russia has little hope of immediate territorial aggrandisement in the Balkans, but Russia gains through every acquisition of territory by petty Balkan kingdoms over whom she exercises the influence of patron and potector. Italy must be willing to con- , cede much under such circumstances in exchange for footing east of the Adriatic, but what of Austria? Austria has long had her eyes' on Salonika and Macedonia, and cannot be well disposed to any nation—Montenegrin, Servian or Italian—which balked her patient policy; she is as little inclined to approve an autonomous Macedonia, the solution of the situation desired by the statesmen ■ of Britain. In the meantime Austria is moving troops to strategic points, probably with the intention of reminding her small neighbors in the south that they cannot rearrange the Balkan frontiers to suit themselves, even in the event of their being able, to defeat the Turks. The course of the war in the immediate future cannot be predicted with any assurance of accuracy, and it is quite possible that the situation will develop very slowly to the clogging effect on troops of roads which are as bad as some of those in Taranaki, and insufficient railways. But there is little doubt that as soon as Bulgaria begins hostilities, the centre of interest will be the plain between Adrianople and the Black Sea. It is there that the chief battles will probably take place, the objective of each army being the possession of the line of railway thai connects Sofia with Constantinople. The Turks began to prepare entrenchments and military roads three years ago in anticipation of the struggle thut has now commenced, and if the Bulgarians expect to be able "to advance quickly they are likely to be disappointed, for, despite their early reverses, some of the greatest soldiers of the world have borne witness to the extraordinary difficulty of dislodging Turkish troops from a position they have undertaken to defend. In the meantime the bravo little Montenegrins- have, been directly responsible .for unchaining the dogs of war, and whatever their ultimate fate they have not improbably done a service to the world by being the first to lance a particularly virulent sore.