RAGLAN BY-ELECTION

Te Awamutu Courier, Volume 72, Issue 6198, 25 February 1946, Page 5

RAGLAN BY-ELECTION

VOTING ANALYSED WHERE WILL LAST ELECTION “OUTSIDERS” VOTES GO? At the last election in 1943 Mr R. Coulter in the Raglan electorate secured a majority of 108 votes in a total roll of 10,906. For the present contest the roll has closed with a total of 12,343, an increase of 1434 since 1943. In the 1943 elections the results were:—R. Coulter (Labour), 4817; R. J. Glasgow (National), 4709; A. Dillon (Democratic Labour), 289; S. Burton (Real Domecracy Movement). 221; informal, 90, or a total vote of 10,126. It would seem from those figures that the 1943 poll was an exceptionally heavy one, for only 780 refrained from exercising their franchise. The fact that 780 servicemen’s votes were recorded —382 for Mr Coulter, 322 for Mr Glasgow, and 76 distributed between Messrs Dillon and Burton, and “informal”—is a coincidence, for it exactly tallies with the difference between the actual total of votes recorded and the total number on the roll. A total of 305 votes were struck off the main, roll at the time the supplementary roll was prepared, presumably because of death or removal from the electorate. The main roll had had 9832 names on it, and the supplementary roll brought the aggi egate to 11,211. With the 305 deletions the aggregate roll stood at 10,906. However, the present roll carries 12,340 names. How many will be credited on election night to each of the candidates? That is what) all the pre-election activity is concerned with. An analysis of the returns at the last election shows that the Nationalists had majorities in nearly all the rural booths. It was in the booths in mining towns where Mr Coulter’s figures mounted very materially. Raglan township was about equally divided, but at Tuakau and otherrural centres a strong anti-Govern-ment vote prevailed. It is fairly widely understood in the electorate that the Prime Minister, Mr Peter Fraser, will enter the lists in support of the Government candidate, Mr Alan Baxter. However, if his arrival is delayed a day or two he will hardly be expected to undertake campaigning after the strain of travel from the other side of the world. There has been a very close study made b.V the organisers on both sides to classify voters, based on their adherence to one or other for the main parties in 1943, at which time it was evident that the “others” were not serious contenders. Results on election day showed fairly clearly that they were not seriously regarded; but it may be that those same voters—2B9 for Mr Dillon and 221 for Mr Burton—will be an important factor in the coming contest, and to these can be added the 90 voters who marked their voting papers in a manner as to have them rejected? by the returning officer as informal. It is hardly conceivable that the bulk of these votes were jnistakenly marked; rather is it that they were deliberately made informal for a variety of reasons, chief of which was probably that the voters were not arracted by any one of the contenders for the ultimate honours, and they took the opportunity for showing their disapproval by nullifying their voting papers. It has been claimed that voters in 1943 for Democratic Labour will this time be found voting for the Government (Labour), and that the Real Democracy Movement supporters in 1943 will be almost to a man supporting the Nationalist candidate. The question has been frequently asked, Will the farmers who voted Labour at the last election turn over to the National Party this time? But how many farmers voted for the Government last time? There have been varying estimates ranging from 100 to 750—according to the sources of the estimate and its political colour. „ ■