THE MAP OF EUROPE.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume I, Issue 196, 23 September 1914, Page 6

THE MAP OF EUROPE.

WHAT WILL FOLLOW THE WAR? y .■ [Written for THE SUN.] > Already the Victorian age seems as dead as the Georgian period, and yet, not until the stress of the South African war did it ebmie to its climax of dissolution. Great wars are ever the culminating point ,of eras of human progress, or retrogression, marking the end of outworn methods of life and the beginning of new. The old idea of rule by .hereditary aristocracy went under with all the stuffiness of Victorianisin, and ftvhat new ideals of governance, what new arrangements of territory will this present war bring?

This new era of civilisation that must be. precipitated into form by the international disturbance now raging—-what form will it take? In the event of Germany's defeat will it not mean the defeat of heriditary autocracy: in all the civilised countries of the world, to be succeeded by what? Despotisms of popular choice, possibly. The popular revolt and Parliament wars of England made the autocracy of Cromwell, the flare of the French Revolution, for all the talk of liberty and equality, prepared the way for the dictatorship of Napoleon.

THE MELTING POT. Old institutions are now in the melting pot, and w r e are privileged spectators waiting to see in what new form they *vill arise. .But whatever forms of national governance may be the outcome,: however thrones and powers may fall or change, one thing is Certain: the -map of Europe-must be changed for ever. -The age of prophesy, doubtless, is -departed with the age of miracles,but one may still indulge in pleasing guesswork. Frontiers do not define nationality, particularly in these recent years pf Geneva Conference and Hague Tribunals, and racial characteristics still ■■.: count . more than boundaries •fixed arbitrarily by concerts of the Powers. .

The great confederacy of German -Kingdoms and principalities as the German .Empire was largely the work of quo, man —Bismarck, the dictator —and the furnace of its welding was the war of 1870. But though forty years of prosperity have seen it hold together and grow> in power, what of the disintegrating power of disaster? The Southern German States' are not entirely of the same racial characteristics as the northern States, and always they have been a little jealous of Prussian dominance! then, too, there are religions differences to cons'der. Alsace and Lorraine, of course, have not been German for nearly 200 years; Bavaria, Wurtemburg, and other of the South German States-are more akin to the Teutonic provinces of Austria in customs, religion, and racial feeling than to the Prussians and Saxons, and the people of ,the. southernmost Austrian Tyrol are more Italian' in sympathies and racial admixture than Austrian — they are Austrians only becuse of Austria's long domination in Italy. A STORM CENTER. That welter of nationalities that m.akes the Hungarian nation is complex in its sympathies as in its combination, J one thing it decidedly is not —it is i j not" Austrian. Hungary, conquered by ! ' Austria after one of the hereest wars ' of repression, has- always been a most ' unwilling partner in the uneasy dual monarchy which is now ncaring its cud. The signs of revolt in Parliament and amongst the people have been obvious these many years, and it is probable that even had the war not come to hasten dissolution the death of the old Emperor Francis Joseph would have been the signal for open insurrection and secession. . Whatever be the result of the Avar in thj remoulding of States and nationalities; it ,is certaiii that South-eastern Europe will have developments that I will keep the Cabinets of the Great Powers wakeful in the years to conie. Russia "s designs upon ; the"': Dardanelles, and other; to the Mediterranean she may acquire,.-. are common knowledge, and for years Russia has steadily spread-the propaganda of Pan-Slavism. Russia has a genius for assimilation not inferior to that of the British, particularly with Asiatic and half Asiatic races, and there is not one of the Balkan States that is not pro-Russian, more akin in thought and feeling to the Slavonic elements of Russia than to the Teutonic, races. The, Bulgarians, Servians, Montenegrins, and Rumanians are brothers to the Russians of the Caucasus, Mongolian in origin with a strongv, infusion of Ottoman Turk, Croats and, Dalmatians of Hungary are the same, and the Magyars, the predominnt race in Hungary, ( are also the result of successive waves of' Asiatic, invasion and occupation. MAGYAR OR SLAV?

This is merely to suggest how differ!ent in ideals and culture are the races of south-eastern Europe to the. ideas of civilised Europe generally. It is possible that the dominant Magyar element in Hungary may revive the ancient kingdom, amalgamating with some, if not"a 11, of the Balkan States, in which event there would be a new Power, a new empire in Europe, -but tins is not according to the Russian book. The very fact of the Balkan States being a collection'of small nations eternally jealous of each other assists Russia in her ideal of establishing first a "protective" suzerainty over them and then absorbing them. Russia is stronger than the Magyars, and Russian diplomacy is patient and inevitable; unlike the changing ideals of the ever-changing Cabinets of democratic, Europe, it pursues its purpose through the centuries. A NEW TEUTONIC FEDERATION.

But, though it is a habit of human nature to reckon great 'change* from some definite date, change, is cumulative effect, and not even to climaxes can day or year be assignee!. Though this war precipitate antagonisms and sympathies, years are required to develop them into new nationalities, it is most unlikely that a total overthrow of Prussian power would be permitted, for the reason that Russia would most devoutly j desire it, and'both France and England distrust the growing strength and bulk of the Russian Empire. Yet with the smashing of Austrian influence goes one of the props of the European "status quo," and fresh opportunities are made for Russian intrigue—a barrier against her progress with the Slavs of the Balkan States and the-Kingdom of Hungary is removedi -,.

One can look to see Russia .predominant in the Balkans eventually, rather

than an amalgamation of. Magya-T and Slav. Hungarj-, extended to embrace all: the Slavonic and Magyar elements now in the Dual Monarchy, once again an autonomous State, and the northern Teutonic provinces of Austria joined in a new empire with those south' German kingdoms and duchies now forming part of the German Empire. The overlordship of Prussia and the House of Hohenzollern has never been warmly approved by the south German States, inhabited as they are by a people different in temper from the rigid,. unemotional, systematic Prussian and Saxon, for the Con-, federaey was a marriage of convenience' •brought about by the determination of one man, with the Napoleonic wars as its impetus. ',- RUSSIA GAINS.

Perhaps a Greater Prussia (no-longer ■the" German-Empire) will be "the outcome of a disunited Germany, and a new Teutonic Empire formed of the Germanised Austrian States and~the kingdoms of south Germany.* Italy, had shejoined the Allies, would have stood to regain control of a large part of the Austrian Tyrolj France, of course, wIH again take possession of Alsaee-Xrorrainc; but in the division of the spoils in the event of Germany receiving a crushing defeat, it is not France that stands to* gain most, either, in territory -or influence, but Russia. Her promise of a restoration of self-government to Germain,. Poland (under Russian suzerainty) is.one step, the next will be a beneficent protectorate over the Balkan States, and a port in the Mediterranean to follow. Since prophesies are.'rash, all certainty of omniscience is hore.dropped,.and, with speculation merely, it is suggested as a probability that where thereare now: two empires the future yearn •will see. two kingdoms and one looselyallied league ofc-ccntral German StatesD. 11.