The Stratford Evening Post. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE EGMONT SETTLER MONDAY, OCTOBER' 11, 1920. THE WORLD’S WHEAT POSITION

Stratford Evening Post, Volume XXXXI, Issue 70, 11 October 1920, Page 4

The Stratford Evening Post. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE EGMONT SETTLER MONDAY, OCTOBER' 11, 1920. THE WORLD’S WHEAT POSITION

The North American wheat crop is the key to the world’s wheat position for the next twelve months, so that much interest attaches to the announcement that the official estimate of the United States crop has been reduced to 770,000,000 bushels. Wheat values in Europe will be ruled by what America can spare for ex-' port, and Australasian growers exindicated by the estimate, seeing that

poet to got at least London parity. Last year the- United States harvested 910,987,000 bushels of wheat— a record crop. According to the latest estimates, the crop will bo 171,000,000 bushels less this season. Jt Would hardly have been a matter for surprise if there had been a greater shrinkage in production than the 20 per cent, th© farmers of th© United States tnis year have nearly 25 per cent. less acreage under crop compared with 1919. In 1918 th 0 area cropped was 73,2-13,000 acres; this year it dropped to 58,257,000 acres. Thi s may seem strange in view of the fact that throughout the war and since the

American farmer has been promptly paid prices which other wheat-grow-ers regarded as fabulous. There have been two reasons for tho decrease; A drift of rural population to the cities, and a consequent shortage of farm labour ; and, secondly, ' that, with tho high cost of production, even th© high prices received were looked upon by

many as not offering adequate inducement to grow wheat. The home consumption requirements of the United States are about 600,000,000 bushels, so that" there will only be an exportable surplus of 170,000,000 bushels. Tlie United States, however, had a earn,’-over from last year’s crop. In England they have been reckoning on this being about 110,000,000 bushels. A recent letter from Dr. Duval, the American Wheat Commissioner, puts a different complexion on this supposed reserve. On paper he says, there is a carry-over of 150,000,000 bushels,,An authoritative estimate had reduced, this, by one half, but it was believed that the actual carry-over of bread wheat

was infinitesimal, as the residue of grain was mainly only of feed quality. The Canadian crop is also a considerable factor. Tin the Dominion this year only 17,000,000 acres were eowa h 1 wheat, as compared with , 19,126,000 acres last year. As the United States spring wheat has suffered from drought, it is only reasonable to assume that similar cqndicions

have affected the Canadian crop, as the United State's spring wheat country borders on the Canadian wheat belt. The British Board of Agriculture pub’ishes',a review of the wheat position by Sii Daniel Hall, a recognised authority, in which he says that for the year 191920 the wheat imports into the United Kingdom, were T 00,000,000 cwt.,, and that the requirements for 1020-21 are set down at 110,000,000 cwt. Last year th© United States and Canada supplied the United Kingdom with 71,613,000 cwt., or 1,336,800,000 bushels. Proceeding, Sir Daniel Hall says:-—■ “In any cas e , after taking into account the North American carry-over, there is a very narrow margin for safety, and there are two factors in the question that cannot be estimated. There is the demand‘from France, Italy, and Belgium, which in 1,918 10 amounted to something more. 1 ban 110,000,000 cwt., and the entirely unknown demand, unknown both as to extent and the financial capacities of tlie cbull- 1 tries to pay for it, from Central ope whore, however, good crops are expected. ’ Agate, the no-vEuropriiTi; countries, particularly Japan, ar € becoming g-eatly incr ased wheat-eaters, and will effuse an additional strain t/pan the world’s supply. There is no .epartment in which prophecy is more dangerous than that of food .suppU,

but, in view of the fact that under thmost favourable view the world will only get through the year 1926-21 ih virtue of the American surplus, and that every civilised country shows the same phenomenon of a withdrawal of labour from the land, we cannot escape from the conclusion that wheat ill be short in the world for years to come— so short that any had crop in one of the great producing ■ountrDs may result in something like famine conditions.”