The Southland Times MONDAY, JULY 21, 1941. Political Symptoms at Waitemata

Southland Times, Issue 24492, 21 July 1941, Page 4

The Southland Times MONDAY, JULY 21, 1941. Political Symptoms at Waitemata

IN the absence of a National candidate the Waitemata by-election could not be regarded as a reliable test of party strength. But the voting on Saturday revealed some interesting tendencies. This was the first occasion selected by Mr J. A. Lee for testing the feeling of the country towards the Democratic Labour - Party, and it can be taken for granted that official Labour summoned all its strength to meet the challenge. The result indicated that the schismatic group has little chance of becoming a serious political force for many years. Waitemata is a representative electorate, for it includes rural as well as urban districts. Mr N. V. Douglas was believed to be a promising candidate. Yet he received only 908 votes —less than one-quarter of the votes cast for Mrs M. V/. Dreaver, the successful Labour candidate. If there is to be a General Election the Democratic Labour Party is likely to be effective merely in a vote-splitting function, although the huge majority gained by Mr Lee in 1938 may give it at least one seat in the new Parliament. The Independent candidate, Mr W. B. Darlow, undoubtedly received most of the votes that normally would have been secured by the National Party, and in the circumstances his performance was surprisingly good. Even if it be admitted that Mr Douglas’s votes represent part of Labour’s majority in 1938, the figures are still significant. Assuming that, in the absence of a Democratic Labour candidate, the official majority would have been 1328, (a provisional total) the figures do not compare favourably with Captain W. J. Lyon’s final majority of 2261. It is true that the poll was not large: 9300 voted as against 13,351 in 1938. But the Labour leaders, who have never under-estimated the influence of Mr Lee, would be anxious to obtain a maximum party vote in Waitemata, and the electorate must have been very thoroughly canvassed. It is by no means certain that Mrs Dreaver obtained a maximum vote. But it is equally a matter for speculation whether the 908 supporters of Mr Douglas will again vote for Labour. And there are 4000 voters who refrained from going to the booths. These people probably represent the large silent vote which does so much to settle the fate of Governments. The Labour Party may feel confident that it can win their support in a General Election campaign. But when the smallness of Mrs Dreaver’s majority is placed alongside the dwindling majorities in Auckland West and Christchurch South, the reduced vote for Labour at Waipawa, and the decided swing against Labour at the municipal elections, it begins to seem probable that the Government is losing ground in the electorates.