The Southland Times THURSDAY, JUNE 27, 1940. A New Situation in the Pacific

Southland Times, Issue 24163, 27 June 1940, Page 4

The Southland Times THURSDAY, JUNE 27, 1940. A New Situation in the Pacific

! AFTER a period of watchful waiting, the Japanese Government now appears to have accepted the collapse of France as the‘signal to extend its imperialist policy in the Fai’ East. According to a Tokyo correspondent of the Associated Press, certain demands have been made to Britain. If they were conceded it would mean, in effect, the liquidation of British interests in China and the beginning of Japanese political intervention in Burma. Such far-reaching demands are probably intended to serve, in the first place, as the basis for a new attempt to weaken Britain’s position in the Orient (to be made with a pressure which may fluctuate in response to the changes of fortune in the European zone), and secondly as a screen for action against French Indo-China. It is possible that Japan’s anti-British campaign can be kept within the bounds of negotiation, at least until the foreign policy of the United States and the present obscurities of the naval situation have been clarified. But there can be little doubt that Japan will take advantage of France’s defeat to secure possession of one of the richest colonial territories in the Far East.

Japanese Policy It has been announced in Tokyo that Japanese warships are being sent to French Indo-China and that supervisory committees have been appointed to see that no further arms are supplied to the Chinese Government at Chungking. This pretext is too flimsy to deceive anyone outside Japan. The invasion of Kwangsi, some time ago, allowed the Japanese to dominate China’s only railway connection with IndoChina. In February the line was

bombarded as a way of emphasizing a demand for a complete stoppage of vital supplies, and if goods are still being sent by this route they must have dwindled to negligible quantities. Even the Burma road, about which Japan continues to make representations to Britain, has lost much of its importance. At the end of March the supplies of European war materials for China had been reduced by more than 60 per cent.* during an eightmonths period, and by now they have probably declined almost to zero. This means that China must become almost entirely dependent on Russia, and the recent frontier agreement between the Tokyo and Moscow Governments indicates that Russian aid will not

be substantial. The trend of Soviet policy shows an increasing pre-occupation with European affairs. France is out of the fight, and Britain is preparing to resist an attack on her own shores. The only other Great Power with a stake in the Far East is the United States, and at the moment the attention of Washington is directed towards Europe. It has not yet been disclosed where the American fleet, which has left Hawaii, is to be based; but in

spite of much wishtul thinking in this part of the world there is a strong probability that it is steaming towards the Atlantic. With the possibility of a German attack on Britain now freely admitted, the American naval authorities have to give the fullest protection to their Atlantic coast —especially if there is a chance that the French navy might fall into the wrong hands. The First Step

The present combination of circumstances provides Japan with an ideal opportunity for expansion in the Pacific. This need not be taken to mean that she can embark on a radiating series of conquests. Her resources, although considerable, are not unlimited, and the China campaign is a continuing drain upon her military strength. The occupation of large Chinese territories, however, is not proving as expensive as was expected. It was estimated recently that the Japanese army in North China is already deriving about 75 per cent, of the cost of its upkeep from local sources. Moreover, the Japanese navy is at full strength, and it is the naval leaders who have persistently advocated the building of a Pacific empire. They are not

likely to favour expensive adventures at a distance from their bases. Nor is there any need for such action. The occupation of French Indo-China would place them at an easy distance from valuable British and Dutch colonial possessions. They can advance slowly and carefully, fitting their progress to the tempo of events in Europe. But unless there is a sudden clarification of American policy it would be foolish to pretend that the Japanese will hesitate to make use of golden opportunities. These possibilities have a special significance for Australia and New Zealand. Unexpected developments in

Europe might completely change the situation. But no sane policy can be based on expectations which have no sanction from the immediate realities. New Zealand should proceed, resolutely and quickly, to bring her home defences to their maximum strength. The balance of world power is now so uncertain that self-reliance has become the essential condition of national survival.