Thee Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1912. FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

Southland Times, Issue 17232, 31 December 1912, Page 4

Thee Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1912. FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

Throughout the year relations among the Powers have been almost universally friendly. Overtly, at least, there has been no serious friction, but everybody has been conscious that the position was never secure. From the Empire's point of view the question of chief importance is the relation between Britain's sea power and that of Germany, and this question was very fully canvassed during the year. In a speech delivered at Glasgow in February, Mr Churchill made a most emphatic declaration of the Liberal Government’s intention to maintain the unquestionable supremacy of the British Navy. While he deprecated international competition in the building of

wavships he affirmed that “the country had never been more united in its resolve to maintain naval supremacy,” and added that “while we would be the first to welcome a slackening of the rivalry, and tvould meet it with deeds not words, if competition became acute we would increase the ratio of naval strength and make the margin of superiority larger as the strain became greater.” Germany immediately fitted on the cap, and since the beginning of the year much attention has been devoted to comparisons of German and British naval strength in the North Sea, of their building programmes, and of the relative strength of their navies three years’ hence. But there has been no unusual display of feeling in either country. Never a year passes but there is an outbreak of Anglophobia somewhere in Germany, and an outburst of anti-German feeling in Britain. The recurrence of these eruptions is to be expected, and for the most part they are of but small importance. Taking the year as a whole there has been a good deal of frank discussion and frank criticism between. England and Germany, but the cordiality of relations has not been ruptured. Lord Haldane paid a visit to Germany which was not admittedly political in character, but which certainly led to a number of meetings favourable to friendship between the two nations. Germany sent a new Ambassador to London who is known as “ a friend of peace,” and whose efforts will be used to establish a friendly . understanding between his country and ours The rivalry continues, and at a hundred points the possibility of conflict between British and German policy is present. Still the trend of the times is against war, and as regards the mass of the people there is certainly a desire for amicable relations. The general elections in Germany at the beginning of the year revealed a largo increase in the Socialist vote, and the Socialists of Germay are all opposed to war. As Germany is fixed in her policy of expansion there is no immediate hope of any relaxation of naval competition, but there is some hope that as the nations learn to understand each other better the tremendous armaments with which each is provided will not be used against each other. The friendship between Britain and France has continued unbroken. There was a change of Ministry in France in January’, and among its first announcements was one that existing friendships would be maintained. France and Britain understand each other thoroughly, and the entente is one of the strongest safeguards of

European peace. Its continuance, with Russia as the third member of

the group, is the more desirable since the Triple Alliance has been renewed. Germany, Austria, and Italy in the Triple Alliance might be dangerous to the peace of the world if there was disunion among the rest of the great Powers, but with the Triple Entente as a counterweight the balance is steadied and the risks of war made so tremendous that no Power is prepared to face them. The value of the Triple Entente has been demonstrated by the war in the Balkans, in regard to which the great Powers have appeared only in the role of spectators, and there has been no undue interference with the Allies nor any attempt to rob them of their spoils. The year brought no such perilous crisis as that which occurred in 1911 over the Morocco incident, and while complete freedom from anxiety is impossible in view of the state of the world there is, nevertheless, no particular occasion for apprehension in the situation as it stands at the close of the year. During 1912 there has been no repetition of the extraordinary" political changes which occurred in 1911. Last year, it will be recollected, the Monarchy was overthrown in Portugal, a republic w*as established in China and constitutional government was set up in Persia. No such revolutions have to be recorded this year. In Portugal Royalist outbreaks have occurred. and the Government is in a position that is far from satisfactory. Still the existence of the republic has not been seriously threatened, and exKing Manuel still makes bis home in England. Of the success of the republic in China it is too soon to speak. The machinery of Government 4s not yet in running erder, public finance is in a state bordering upon chaos, and the country has still to learn the rudiments of representative government. Still, after such a change a period of turmoil was inevitable, and whatever difficulties are encountered in establishing the republic it is quite certain that China is done with the government of the Manchus. After the lapse of a year constitutional government exists in Persia in name only. The country is virtuallycontrolled by Russia and Britain, and there is so much incompetence among the Persians themselves that control is badly needed. The Oriental countries which arc experimenting with constitutional government have yet to prove that they are capable of adopting Western political methods.

In the United States the event of the year was the Presidential election. After a strenuous campaign the President, Mr Taft, secured re-nomination at the Republican Convention, substantially defeating ex-President Roosevelt. Mr Roosevelt immediatelydeclared that he would not accept the Convention’s decision, but would form an independent progressive party and go to the country as its leader. The choice of the Democratic party fell upon Mr Woodrow Wilson, and be was eventually elected by an enormous majority of votes over Mr Taft, and Mr Roosevelt To the surprise of many, Mr Roosevelt polled more heavily than Mr Taft. Undoubtedly Mr Wilson gained by the split in the Republican party, but he would probably have won under any circumstances, for the people of the States are disposed to give the Democrats then confidence. The best of feeling has prevailed between Britain and the United States. Some indignation is felt in regard to America’s action with respect to the Panama tolls, which, in violation of the Treaty, will handicap British shipping using the canal, and if America refuses to submit the matter to arbitration the indignation will be increased. But wiiile there may* be friction there will We no breaoh between the two nations. The tendency is towards closer relations, and next y-ear, when the centenary of the Anglo-Saxon peace will be celebrated, the seal will be set on a union which springs from blood relationship, a common language, and similar ideals and aspirations. By most people war between Britain and the United States is regarded as an impossibility and the friendship between the two countries is in the interests of universal peace.

At the close of the year the great nations are at peace with each other and war is but a remote possibility, but the nations are even more formidably armed than they' were twelve months ago, and no one can venture with any certainty to say what the next twelve months will produce.