EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Shannon News, 30 October 1928, Page 4

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

CLAIMS CHALLENGED,

POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTS,

Considerable attention was recently directed to the subject of the possibility of the prediction of earthquakes on account of alarming forecasts made by Professor Raffaele Bendandi; of Facnza, Italy. His name has bee- asociated with frequent but somewhat vague predictions of earthquakes, tornadoes and tidal waves. " Recent happenings in Southern Europe would seem to justify tsoiiio of his utterances, but another aspect of the matter is put in the latest news leaflet '.•!' th» Mawiian Volcano Research Association. In it Air R. Af. -Wilson, asistanl director at the Hawaiian Observatory, points out that earthquakes occur with considerable frequency which yet pass unnoticed by seismologists, because they have not taken place in a thickiy-populated area., with .consequent damage and loss. It is safe to prophesy a great earthquake at almost any time one may wish and then afterwards point to a selected earthquake which may appear to justify the prophecy. The prophecies of Professor Bendandi have been subjected to analysis by Air. James Young of Toronto, Canada, who has found that more of them have been properly fulfilled than would be expected from the laws of chance. Alan, of the earthquakes selected by Bendandi as justifications of his-prophecies, while they may occur within-.a few days of the time set, often fail by whole continents with the prophesied hf cality. Several of the greatest and most disastrous earthquakes were not predicted at all. It would seem that Professor Bendandi may make his prophecies at random,. afterwards making use of a far-fetched chance method to justify them. Nevertheless, it is not to be assumed that earthquake prediction by conventional and scientific methods is impossible. The tiltings, changes of level and horizontal creeps of the earth's crust discoverable by geodetic measurements are apparently proved by a number of actual observed eases in Japan and California to be fore-warnings of earthquakes.- These movements probably represent elastic crust yielding before earthquake fracture occurs.