SOLAR DISTURBANCES.

Rangitikei Advocate and Manawatu Argus, Volume XLV, Issue 11960, 11 December 1919, Page 5

SOLAR DISTURBANCES.

PLANETS AND THE EARTH.

POSITION'ON DECEMBER 17th

“NO NEED FOR ALARM”

In r an article in the Christchurch Press, Mr E. G. Hogg, M.A., F.R.A.S., says Professor Porta, an A merman solar physicist, has drawn some disturbing conclusions from the fact that on December 17th there will he a somewhat unusual distribution of the planets relative to the sun, ‘A gigantic explosion of flaming gases due to a great sunspot, will, he predicts cause “terrific storms” on the earth. Certainly, to an observer placed on the sun, the planets would present an interesting spectacle, as most of them would appear in the same general direction m the heavens, but why Mr Clement L. Wragge, who evidently takes the whole matter seriously, should regard this as “very ominous and significant,’’ is by no means clear. His language recalls the good old days when the astrologer, by careful manipulation of planets benign and planets malign, gained for himself a dismal notoriety and a precarious income.

GRAVITATIVB PULL'OF PLANETS.

it may be interesting to'try to get at the root of Professor Porta’s prediction, but it may be as well to say at the outset that such general conjunctions as will occur abaut'December 17th have happened on innumerable occasions before, and, H 0 * ar as our information goes, without eny noticeable effect on the eartij, while minor conjunctions axe among the commonest of astronomical phenomena. . Let us assume, then, that all the planets are in a line with the sun, with Mercury nearest, and Neptune at the greatest distance frbm the sun things will not be quite as bad as this on the 17th —in fact, the earth will not nearly bo proper weight on the day in question, ihe only way in which the planets, so far as wo know, can affect the sun, is by their gravitative pull, .and this will be most effective when they are aligned as assumed above. e all know the small amount of tide —due to the moon —which is experienced in the open ocean; the tide caused by the sun is far smaller than the lunar tide. Let us see what the planets most effective in raising tides in the son can do—these planets are Venus, Mercury, and Jupiter. The tide raising power of the nrsc named planet is only about l-700 of that which the sun exerts on the earth, while the powers of Mercury and Jupiter are each about 1-1000 of the sun’s influence on the earth. Hence, "making all allowances tor ffie extreme rarity of the materials which compose the solar atmosphere, it seems most unlikely that even all planets were pulling together they could originate any appreciable disturbance in the sun’s outer parts. THE EFFECT OF SUN SPOTS. Professor Porta appears to xely largely on ‘‘a great sun-spot.” xhe sun’s surface is liable to periodic outbreaks fof great violence, when millions of square miles of the surface are affected by gigantic storms, somewhat of the nature or r whirlpools. From a state of relative quiescence the solar surface will gradually pass into a state of great activity, which will slowly decline until the former state cf rest is attained, when a new cycle of activity will begin. The records of the numbers of sun spots show that the interval of tune between two maxima cf activity is about 11 years. At present the sun is m a moderately disturbed state; the last maximum occurred in 1917, and the sau Is proceeding in due course to a minimum. Hence it is by no means unlikely that on or about the Uth inst. there may bo a sun spot of more or less magnitude visible on the sun, bat it by no means follows that the sun spot will bo caused by the combined attraction of the planets. Of the origin of sau spots very little is known; many attempts have been made to connect the solar storms with the positions oi the planets relative to the sun, but up to the present no theory which attributes sun spots directly to the gravitating influence of the plan ets has successfoly withstood close examination. SPOTS FREQUENTLY SEEN. Let us, however, grant Professor Porta his sun spot why should it cause '‘terrific storms” on the earth. All evidence is against the view’ that maxima of sun spot acivity are times of violent storms on the earth; meteorological data are thought oy some to yield evidence of a thirty-five-year period in terrestrial weather conditions, but even if this were true, the time for meteorological disturbances on an aggravated ‘scale is not due until 1925. If the case m weak against the connection between earthstorms and sun spots maxima, it is hopeless to predict what may 1 happen from a single spot. -Time, without number has a - spot appeared on the eastern limb of the sun, been visible during thirteen days, ..while the sun’s rotation has apparently carried it across the solar disc to the western ilmb, „ when it lias disappeared —to turn up again perhaps thirteen days later on the eastern limb—and all the while nothing particular lias happened on the earth. _ „ Hero we must leave Professor Porta; we see no cause tor alarm in liin or in Mr Wragge’s predictions. There is, it is true, some connection between sun spots and magnetic storms on the earth, though what the link is we do not understand. All we can hope for, -..then, is that on the night of the 17th Professor Porta’s sun spot will rise to the occasion and lot ns have, if not a magnetic storm —which we should not hear of until the next day but some auroral manifestation which exultant voters may bo pleased to regard us evidence of the gonial interest our luminary takes in our little political atVaus,

Mil WiiAGUKV- ITH; DICTIONS. A l. ! tXH-ON Al.' ■ 1 EX PLANATION. Mr Clement Wj a "go writes to the N.'/. Herald as follows : ‘ T am u public scientific man, and 1 uru endeavouring most truly to do xny very best in uiy own line of wort for everybody. Through your kind*ness, thee, 1 do very earnestly ask

the to Relieve the many extraordinary and ridiculous reporto that are current throughout this Dominion anent my weather forecasts and advices. Only this morning have X received a letter from a person living within 100,miles from Tolago Bay to the effect that I had predicted from three to 11 years drought. Needles 3to say, such a prophecy never entered my mind. “Every word of my forecast is most carefully weighed and considered with the nicest judgment possible to the humatt brain, and nothing “herein is genuine unless signed by me or published by the reputable press. That I may make occasional mistakes is fully admitted, since I am not a chronometric * automaton, but only human, and liable to errors of personal equation and judgment like the best of us. Any way, I have the satisfaction of knowing that I do the best of which I am capable. “Anent the configurations of the sun and planets this mouth I am no sensation monger. I simply gave the mathematical figures, and .suggested what might or might not Occur here , and what-1 have given out was from a sterling sense of duty. “Thus nothing whatever may occur in New Zealand, and if people will only use the most common prudence at this time there not the slightest need to lose sleep unless to view the Aurora Australis, which may or may not take place. bo God’s own country, of which I am so very be a citizen, may safely go*on its way and rejoice in a thoroughly sound and statesmanlike Government. I beg you will do me the Dustice of inserting this letter.”