PROSPECT OF LOWER FREIGHTS.

Pelorus Guardian and Miners' Advocate., Volume 31, Issue 27, 8 April 1919, Page 4

PROSPECT OF LOWER FREIGHTS.

In a memorandum on the world's merchant shipping, Sir James Wilson, K.C.5.1., chairman of 'the Central Agricultural Wages Committee for Scotland, recently discussed the probable movement of ocean freights in the immediate future. He argues that within a few months the supply of shipping for commerce will be greater than the demand, as compared with the pre-war 1 relationship, and that freights will fall to a level not much more than double the rates which were current .before the war. It is noteworthy that Sir James Wilson makes only a slight reference to the large quantity of tonnage which, it is generally assumed, will be required for some time to come for the transport of troops from Europe to the United States and the British Dominions over seas, and omits to mention that Europe will require a great deal of reprovisioning. He says that it seems to be practically certain that the world's total steamer tonnage (including that in enemy countries) though considerably less than it was in July, 1914, is at present larger than it was on the average of the five years before the war, that it will go on rapidly increasing, and that it will a year hence, be much larger than ever it was in the world's history. All ships in enemy hands wil soon become available for use, much of the shipping hitherto employed in operations of war is already being returned to ordinary commerce, and it will not be long before the quantity of tonnage actually employed in trade, apart from that still required for the repatriation of men and munitions, and be as large as it was on the average of the five years before the war. On the other hand Sir James maintains the demand for the transport of goods by sea is not likely for a considerable time to be as large as it was on the pre-war average. The resourses of most European countries have been greatly reduced, and it will take some time to reorganise their industrial life, so that the effective demand for the import of food and raw material into Europe is likely to be for some time less than the pre-war demand. For the same reason the quantity of manufactured goods exported from Europe is likely for some time to be less than it was before the war; so that altogether it seems probable that a few months hence the supply of shipping for purposes of trade will be greater than the demand" for shipping as compared with the pre-war rela-tion of supply and demand. Altogether, Sir James Wilson adds, it seems probable that the supply of shipping in the world as a whole will soon be found equal to the demand of shipping, and that freights will in a few months fall to a level not more than double the rates which were current before the war, whereas recently, as regards wheat th?y were about fifteen times the average pre-war rates.