Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, THURSDAY, JULY 15, 1937. STRIPE IN THE FAR EAST

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LXIV, Issue 19377, 15 July 1937, Page 4

Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, THURSDAY, JULY 15, 1937. STRIPE IN THE FAR EAST

Anxiety regarding the position in Spain has for the moment been displaced by concern lest the latest “incident” in the Far East should-lead to a serious clash between China and Japan. In recent years, minor skirmishes in this region have been so frequent that there is a tendency to under-estimate their importance and to assume that they will follow the normal course and simply “blow over.” The keenest students of affairs in the Far East are convinced, however, that sooner or later China will be compelled to make a determined stand against Japanese aggression, and when this occurs, unless Japan is prepared to retreat, there is every likelihood of a major and farreaching struggle. The immediate cause of the present crisis is as obscure as those of its predecessors, but it is difficult to escape the belief that the underlying basis of friction is the presence in Chinese territory of unwarrantedly large contingents of Japanese forces. It is true that Japan, among other Powers, is entitled to station troops at certain points in North China, but the other Powers concerned have not abused this right. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the present trouble, it must be apparent that the stationing of thousands of troops in the territory of another country and the carrying out of warlike manoeuvres is likely to precipitate one of those “incidents” of which Japan is always so ready to take advantage. Nothing more is required to constitute provocation to people who live in constant dread of a further advance by the Japanese, and it

would not be surprising to learn that impetuous Chinese troops had made some form of protest against their traditional enemies. Each side blames the other for starting the actual clash, and then, after a truce had been agreed to, each blamed the other for alleged breaches of the terms. From this situation a deadlock has been reached and both countries are reported to be rushing troops to the scene.

To understand the background of these developments it is necessary to consider the recent history of SinoJapanese relations. Trouble first occurred during the Great War when Japan, taking advantage of the preoccupation of other interested Powers, served her “twenty-one demands” upon China. These demands would have made China a vassal State of Japan, but they were annulled at the 1921 Washington Conference and Japan thus found her stratagem of little avail. Her pol ; cy, however, remained unchanged and her leaders awaited their chance. This was provided by an attack on the Manchurian railway, for which Japan blamed China and China blamed Japan. The “incidents,” however caused, provided the excuse for the occupation of Mukden, which was the prelude to intensive Japanese penetration of Chinese territory. In 1932, Manchuria was declared an independent State, and while the League of Nations was still investigating the Chinese protest Japan was still further extending her sphere of influence. In 1933, the province of Jehol was forcibly annexed, and in 1935 came the demands for the independence of the five provinces of North China. On this occasion, Chinese resistance was somewhat stronger than had been expected, and Japan had to be content with the establishment of an autonomous government in East Hopei. Again, however, it was made clear that Japanese policy was unchanged and that further advances were only a matter of time. Now, apparently, Japan considers that the time has arrived for a further forward move, and the question once more arises of whether her “peaceful” penetration at the point of the bayonet will be permitted or whethei a united China will at last arise to defend its territory and its ancient rights. Japan’s object, of course, is primarily economic. The quest for territory for her growing population is probably less impelling than her need of raw materials with which to maintain her industrial system, but the allimportant fact is that her needs can be met by the continued invasion of China. Hitherto, China has shown little disposition to force the issue. Not only is she anxious for peace for the sake of peace alone, but, in addition, her internal troubles have militated against the waging of a successful war. At heart, however, the Chinese are intensely nationalistic and the time will inevitably come when her people will sink their own differences and join in united opposition to their common enemy. Has that time now arrived? Upon the answer to this question depends whether the present clash will pass off as another “incident," with Japan a little more deeply entrenched, or whether there will be a bitter struggle for mastery. The Chinese vice-Min-ister of Foreign Affairs asserts that his country is determined to resist further encroachment; the Japanese army spokesman says the army is prepared to take the most extreme measures “in the event of further provocation.” The qualification provides a loop-hole for retreat, but Japan is confronted with the difficulty that if once she gives way she is not likely to have another chance of enforcing her demands. Thus there are all the ingredients needed for the outbreak of the war that has been threatening for years, and if it once starts no one can predict where it will end, since Russia may deem it expedient to intervene on behalf of China, and with Russia embroiled in the East Germany may be tempted to launch an attack on the other front. The situation is sufficiently serious to warrant concern, and anxiety will not be allayed until peace has definitely been restored.