PEACE AT STAKE

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LXIII, Issue 19138, 6 October 1936, Page 13

PEACE AT STAKE

ECONOMIC PRESSURE

World needs a lead

LIVING ON REARMAMENT

A declaration that the reported prosperity ot Britain is solely dependent upon the continuation of rearmament, SVt shortly Briuta position similar to that of Ge o y, faring a choice of proceeding with itarmament to the point of war or o facing it renewal of indvistrial depression on a scale greater than that through which the world has just passed was made by Mr. D. M. Shcnvuod, «t London, speaking to Gisborne Bolaii.ms to-dav at their weekly luncheon. M? Sherwood expressed' the belief that economic causes wero Eiifope into war, as they « Italy into the conquest of Abyssinia, a d that the only hope for ? Sro vival is for the presentation ol a pictuie practice. Only, ly e country willing to change its ecouomis system can such an example be given to the world, he conM A 1 chartered accountant, and a London businessman, Mr. Sherwood is toil in* the world to advocate the Douglas Credit theories. He did not raise the .Douglas Credit issue in his address to thte Rotary Club, however, confining hi 9 remarks to the general situation oi Europe and the need for one of the newer nations to offset the curren influences tending towards war by fuimsiiincr an example of how to live m peace and economic security without encroachjug upon a neighbour’s interests. CIVILISATION INVOLVED Taking as his subject the trend of Europe, Mr. Sherwood stated that it might bo said that the trend of Europe was that of the whole Western civilisation. Europe was drifting, he said, and the position was infinitely more serious nOW than at any previous time. jNo effort was being made, it appeared, to control the drift into a condition in which war would be inevitable. Humanity might be divided into two great classes, he continued, the first being the minority, of thinking men, and the other the great mass of non-tlnnk-ert. Every revolution and forward stride had been inspired by the small thinking riiinbrity, for under the impulse oi th«ir suggestions, the passes heaved, arid changes came about. , r c w lh the past generations, Mr. Slierwood continued, the great masses mad bceh linked to the soil, and had been comparatively stable in their attachment to Mother Earth, but now that they were attached to industry and trade, their old stability was gone, and they had become fickle and easily influenced. The trouble was that the thinkers who should be giving them a lead were engrossed in their own works, and had not time to observe the dangers into which the world was drifting. The world was suffering from a lack of co-ordination. Thinkers and masses alike were rowing blindly In the ship of State, and because they were blind, dictatorships had arisen in several of the countries of Europe. The masses were easily swayed by dictators, and the latter could steer where they pleased-back to barbarism, perhaps. MUDDLED THINKING

No ciuestion was more important today than that of war and peace, continued Mr. 'Sherwood, who emphasised the ironic circumstance that nations had outlawed war, had drawn up rules for its conduct, and discussed wars ol defence in successive steps. There was too much mhddled thinking, he and too little realisation that he whole stability of the world depended upon the maintenance of peace. Discussing the causes of war, mt. Sherwood instanced first the economic problems which brought nations to the brink of trouble, pointing out that rigid living conditions in any nation paved the way for dictatorships, in the hope that conditions would impioxo. A principle ol the old Roman policy had been that when discontent occurred at home, the Government should stage a foreign war. Economic warfare between the nations must lead to trouble, and in the present state of the world there could be no cure in an increase of trade between the nations, since aU were producing more than they could absorb 01 EveiT ri' international trade increased tremendously, there would still be unexportable surpluses in every nation ni the world. The economic system of today was such that those surpluses could not be consumed vgithin the borders o the producing countries v or exported into the protected markets of other countries. Lack of income among the peoples of various nations was the flaw in the economic system which held a danger of war in the near future. END OF PUBLIC WORKS

Money reached the people as income in two principal mediums, the speaker stated. In the first place, ordinary trade supplied part of the nation a income, and the balance came largely from the expenditure of the state upon public works, which in effect were goods not produced for consumption or stile. A state might build a road at a cost ot £1,000,000, but though the cost was distributed in the form of wages and material expense, it could not sell the road. For the past 150 years, right up to the Great War, this system of distributing additional income to the people had worked well, because it had been a period of continuous capital expansion and development. The. income received by the people through the outlay or capital in public and private improvements bad been almost sufficient to permit the people to consume all the consumable produce of their countries. Preparations for war also helped to keep up the income of the people as a whole.

Now, however, the end of that period had been reached, and the world had practically all the public works and other capital features it required for the time being. Furthermore, all the nations had practically reached the limit of their borrowing powers, and were unable to finance further public works of any magnitude. About 80 per cent of the material assets of the nations were mortgaged for past loans, and it was impossible to keep up the income of a nation by further borrowing. PROEPERITY AT A PRICE One way in which the situation had been temporarily met was by the reinstitution of expenditure upon armaments. 'Guns, shells, and tanks were not for sale to the public, and the money paid out for their manufacture was passing into other avenues of trade. Europe presented the ghastly spectacle of being dependent on armaments for temporary prosperity. As one writer had put it: The people must make machine-guns in order to eat its cabbages. In the case of Italy, Mr. Sherwood pointed out, the solution had been carried a little further by the conquest of Abyssinia. For a number of years after he first attained power in Italy, Signor Mussolini had been successful because he bad expended funds on the reorganisation of industry, the replacement of old public work®* and in other ways,

When his public works programme came to an end, however, he round himself facing a rising tide of discontent in the nation. Tens of thousands of men were out of work, and tho vicious circle of depression was started. Turning to traditional Roman policy, Mussolini launched his war with Abyssinia, and it was now calculated that the development of that country would give Italy work for the next 50 years at least. In Germany, the people had suffered an absolute change of heart in outlook during the past six years, and had turned to Herr Hitler in the hope that he could find some way out of their impasse. He could do nothing constructive, in the home sphere, and was forced to look abroad for fields of activity. In the past year Germany had spent £800,G00,000 on rearmament Mr. Winston Churchill had calculated, and Germany faced the issue of bringing renewed depression by stopping the manufacture of armaments,. or of going to war to justify its continuance. DEMOCRACY IN ACTION

It was commonly reported that Britain had turned the corner, and had achieved new prosperity. lie disagreed from those who made such statements, Mr. Sherwood remarked. The primary reason for the decrease in the unemployment figures at Home was the drafting of men into the army and war industries. The industrial prosperity of the clay in Britain, such as it was, was being purchased at the price of preparations for war. .Just as in the case of Italy and Germany, Britain would have to choose between war and a change of the economic system. To abolish war, the countries of the world must first abolish discontent due to poverty and the pressure of economic wars. Nations could not pile up armaments indefinitely without finally having recourse to them, and Europe was so engrossed with its immediate problems that it was- hopeless to look to any nation in that group to give a lead in economic rebuilding. Vet, if but one nation could change its system, and so present a picture of true democracy, it would bring into being a new hope for the salvation of western civilisation, now so close to destruction. Such a happening would hold out the only hope of averting a catastrophe. The change was due in the world, Mr. Sherwood claimed, and without going into tlie character of the change, ho pointed out that if it did not come, a few years would see the unemployment figures of the world doubled. Peace at the cost of internal depression, or prosperity at the frightful cost- of war, was the only choice offered the nations unable to see the writing on the wall. EXPERIMENTS WITH DEMOCRACY

Though it was of no use looking to the heart-heavy nations of Europe for a lead, however, there were nations outside Europe which were trying experiments with their economic systems, the question being merely whether any of them would succeed before war enveloped the world. If democracy was to survive, some country would have to provide for the older nations an example of democracy in successful practice. Peoples faced with the choice of anarchy or dictatorships could not ignore sucii an example; but there was not a successful working model of democracy in existence to-day. People were praying for peace, and yet it could not be secured because the masses are inarticulate and ilie thinking minority was concerned too much with immediate problems. If the thinking people of the world could give the lead required of them, western civilisation would .enter upon a new age in which the- troublous times of the present and immediate past would he nothing more than tragic memories. Mr. Sherwood closed Iris address amidst applause, and was tendered a hearty vote of thanks upon the motion of Rotarian F. 11. Ball, who presided at the gathering, and who stated that ho had seldom heard a case presented more succinctly and effectively.