Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, THURSDAY, AUG. 31, 1933. THE LYTTELTON CONTEST

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18181, 31 August 1933, Page 6

Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, THURSDAY, AUG. 31, 1933. THE LYTTELTON CONTEST

A Parliamentary by-dectiou at any time creates widespread interest in political circles, but there are various factors about tile campaign now being waged in the Lyttelton electorate 1 which invest it with more than ordin-| ary importance. Not the least of these is the uncertainty which must 1 be felt as to the result, for the usual cicar-cut issues arc clouded by a number of minor ones. Three candidates are offering themselvos for .election, one endorsed by the Coalition parties/ another by the official Opposition, and the third standing as an Independent Laborite. Even had' the contest been] between the two accredited party l representatives it would not have been easy to predict the result, for the political feeling in the electorate,! judged by previous l elections, is very evenly divided, perhaps more so than 1 in any constituency in the Dominion. It is true that the late Mr. McCombs held the seat for many years on be-i half of the Labor Party, whose supporters, on 'this score, might have expected substantial support for' whoever was chosen by the party as his successor: It cannot be' overlooked,' however,, that' Mr McCombs 1 commanded' a very largo personal vote, for apart from the fact that he was, an 1 outstanding man in -the Labor'movement, he had many attributes which endeared him to people who were riot necessarily of the same political persuasion. J.rt normal circumstances,' 'therefore, it is doubtful-Whether- an-j other Labor nominee would secure the same'amount of support. On the other hand, the Coalition can di-j date previously polled within 'a few votes of Mr. McCombs’ total, nml it would not have been surprising had there been enough defections from what is known as the Labor vote to have given the. seat to a Government supporter. But these are not normal circumstances, olid it would be futile $o ignore the fact that at, the present time the Government is not popular. That does not necessarily condemn the Government, for no administration, whatever its politics, could expect to enact the measures demanded by the economic crisis without losing

a certain amount of favor among the J electors. The , very fact that the Coalition was prepared to sacrifice* its popularity in order to do what it conceived to bo; itho right thing is, perhaps, the strdngf.it argument that can bo advanced in its support. The Opposition, for its part, is naturally making capital out of the Government’s difficulties, and its leader has outlined the course lie would endeavor to pursue were he in office. The fact that, lie is not in office is the one thing that enables him to submit an attractive programme, Every |goveminent in the world would like to do the things the Labor Party aims at doing; but it is only those who are charged with itho responsibility of guiding the destinies of nations who fully appreciate the difficulty of finding ways and means of doing them. The public probably realises this position to a greater extent than they are generally given credit for, and it would have been gratifying to obtain a straight-out expression of opinion from Lyttelton. This, however is not possible. In the first place the Labor candidate is a lady, and, moreover, the widow of the former member. Who can.predict the effect of these two factors alone? TJp till now the electors have shown a strong disinclination to entrust political" office to women','and this would seem to tell against Mrs. McCombs. On the other hand, there aro few women who have played a more distinguished part in the public life of the country; she is admittedly of outstanding ability, and wia undoubtedly secure a very appreciable sympathy vote. But which of these considerations will weigh most heavily on polling day? Even if this point is decided, the complexities of the contest are by no means settled, for all other calculations arc likely to be upset by the advent of tho' Independent Labor candidate. Is the Labor vote sufficiently strong to withstand this division of opinion within its ranks, or will the Independent, who makes allegations against the inner workings of the movement and gives expression to a widely held feeling against parly politics generally, poll sufficient votes to rob Mrs. McCombs of whatever chance she might have had of victory? Those Labor supporters who dislike women in politics, or who oppose party , dogmatism, arc given an alternative in Mr. Hills, as aro also those who have a grievance against .the Government, but hesitate to vote for straight-out socialism. This latter point is an answer to those who take it for granted that, the Independent will take only Labor votes, and that his candidature must, therefore, assist Mr. Freeman. Another thing that is possible, but by rio means certain, is that the very fact of there being a split in the Labor camp will react to the detriment of both the official and the Independent candidates, for I serves to show that the Coalition is by. no means unique in having differences of opinion among its followers. If it is possible for a confused electorate to put aside all I these many side-issues, it is doubtful 1 whether the situation will he greatly clarified, for political issues to-day are almost equally dinieult to dissect; on the one hand, the Government supporters liavo little to offer but an apologia for the depression and tho' distasteful measures it has necqssi-j tated, anu, on the other, the Labor leaders are assailing the Government but have not been able to show how they could have dono anything to ameliorate economic conditions, or, have avoided doing the very things. for which they condemn tho Coalition. Tho electors on the spot may be able accurately to sum up the position, but the rest of the Dominion will await with some anxiety the final returns. Certain it is that the two political j parties will spare no effort to capture votes, for if would be damaging, indeed, to tho campaign of the Opposi: tion were it to lose a second by-elec-tion within a comparatively few, months, and a great victory for the. ( Government were it able to increase its numerical strength in the face of so many adverse influences.