HOW THE WAR AROSE.

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume XLIII, Issue 14052, 24 July 1916, Page 11

HOW THE WAR AROSE.

COL. CHURCHILL'S ANALYSIS. GERMAN PREPARATIONS. LONDON, July 9. Colonel Winston Churchill., is contri- • buting to the Sunday 'Pictorial .: four chapters on the- world war. first is entitled ','Tlie Sinister Hypothesis, and emphasises the impossibility of a democratic i Parliamentary country like Britain; or the United . States, or France plahiHng and organising , an . aggressive war, and making all diplomatic and economic policies conform over a long course of .years to a supreme military object. Such a cpunty, says Colonel Churchill, would only be able, to obtain indispensable measures of defence with the utmost- difficulty. The United States is experiencing that difficulty today. The British Navy was only maintained at its proper strength by annual wrangles. France liad only completed part of necessary preparations fof defence when the war began. "THE WISE AND THE FOOLISH." Had any Minister been able to forewarn the country •of the Austro-German plans, would he have been believed? Would Germany have watched impassively Britain's conversion into a first-class land- Power, piling, up. munitions, avowedly to frustrate lier aims? No. Tho only alternative was to care for the fleet, provide for the effective us© of our sniall army, if the situation required it, to preserv© a. steady consistent friendship witli Powers t sharing our anxieties, avoid provocation by word or act, and hope for the best. It was. very hard .to foretell what would happen. Wise men, with full knowledge of the facts, came to a wrong conclusion ;\ foolish men, giving rein to their prejudices, < found the right conclusion. On the one hand, it seemed inconceivable that any civilised Government would take the plunge when so many crises had been, surmounted, > by cool and loyal behaviour, when there was so much for all to lose and so little for any to gain. A shrewd, wise, sober judgment might well have decided' that peace would be maintained. GROWTH OF GERMAN POWER. On the other hand, German power grew unceasingly. Small States quaked, great States took counsel together. While the electors of the United Kingdom, m 1906, were affirming by the largest majority within living memory their devotion to peace, to iieti<ench- .'.. ment, • and ,to reform, ; iheir tr*usted leader. Sir Henry, Campbell-Bannerman, was principally concerned about the Algeciras Conference, ai>d had already, on the expressed understanding of a Government m nowise committed to war, authorised military conversations with the French General Staff. , ACTIVITIES BEFORE HOSTILITIES. Then came the German iiaval laws, Austria's assertion of sovereignty m Bosnia and Herzegovina, the German ultimatum to 1 - Russia m 1908, the Panther incident at Agadir m 1911, and finally the . entanglements m the Balkans. Meaii/while, diplomacy proceeded. Th© .most attentiW eye could • hardly comprehend where , the real " intention lay. Germany's policy, after the Agadir incident, was correct and considerate, and ..Anglo-German diplomacy was harmonious. Through , -the •- Balkan confer- . ences Germany' seemed to be, with us, bent ori peace. ;A wave of optimism swept over tho British Government and the House of- Commons. Although, abroad, the increase m armaments was constantly accelerated, although , the , ( £50,000,000 capital tax •> ,iey,ied m s Germany set an alarm bell Ringing for. ati,. ears, -to hear, the struggle ' ,\oj obfajii. ithe, necessary supplies^ for the fleet was never more ..prolonged nor " more se-Y.e.re than, early m 1914. ' .'THE .SINISTER .^HYPOTHESIS." The. German , "Ministers were • doubtless , sincerely anxious /to "be the .- friends of . England. ;J.t.\ya»..to .their, interest, and, ' .moreover, it was according to instructions. T*here.. was behind, policy. Tlie German nations deep purposes did not -lie,. in -the ' Foreign Office. Germany's .soul had .been surrendered to the general staff. Somewhere m that .immense .organism, after Agadir, the intention ■, was. fp.rmed "to keep. England out of it," and diplomacy directed ihat end. Somewhere, : too, m the main head- - quarters; trained intelligences, peeving ,pver calculations, were .now to. say,"'' 'All is (^a^y- The-, hour is come to move. '" Tlie All Highest graciously consent--1 ing, a British .squadron, early m- July, for the first tSm.9 for^ some, years, visited Kiel, where ihere were' races, , banquets,' and. speeches. ,Tlie,re was sunshine, ' there Was the Emperor. " The sinister" hypothesis seemed far away. Yet it r was jiow to leap .into, reality.