The Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, MONDAY, JANUARY 24,1887. IS IT WAR ?

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume XIV, Issue 4771, 24 January 1887, Page 2

The Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, MONDAY, JANUARY 24,1887. IS IT WAR ?

Fou several months the world has been on tenterhooks expecting the outbreak of war. While there was a strong presumption that evory effort would be made, if war was inevitable, to postpone it until the European winter was over, yefc there have been many occasions when it has seemed as if even the obstacles to lighting imposed by nature must be disregarded. But actual war has buen kept off till now, though at the cost of a state of extreme tension that must be getting almnat ;\n bad as war itself, and which cannot bo much longer sustained. That there must be a very early war seems as certain as the world's endurance, yet there has been and is uncertainty as to who the war will bo among or how the sides will be composed. But a little consideration shows there are certain broad lines us to pairing for war that are nearly sure to be followed. Franco and Germany, for instance, it is quite certain, would not in any possible contingency for many years — perhaps generations — be found tightim; on the sarno side. In the event of the rest of Europe being at war, they would pair off, either fighting or watching each other. In the latter event they would soon be at war. This i tension of watching would bo over-strained and war would soon become the least | evil of the two. There are many signs, too, that Germany is eager for another very early war with France. By Germany, of course, is understood Bismarck, who in that respect ia tho nation. Bismarck has never concealed his conviction that France must bo further crippled beforo the German Empire can lessen its huge military burden, and settle down in a calm assurance of any considerable period of peace. Ho also knows that the longer the crippling is put off the harder the job will be. Further, he is not forgetful of the uncertainty of life — that his own term of it cannot, in the ' nature of (hifys, bo long— -lhat the Emporor, Moltkc*, and many of the leaders of 1870 — who would be thoroughly in accord with him, and who are probably far more able and willing to carry out such a war ihan their successors would b<? — must soon drop off. The world's greatest

ooldier is in his 87th year, tho Emperor in his 90th, and tho other great generals are old men. Bismarck, but a few days ago, declared, with the frankness which has | been called "brutal," that the next war - must leave France quite powerless, and if he had desired to goad the French into immediate war he could hardly have spoken more offensively. That the French have taken his words so quietly seems to show that they arc conscious they are not fully ready, or that they do not wish to bo made the actual beginners of war, as Bismarck so astutely made them to be in 1870. The self-re-straint shewn has been, for them, simply wonderful. Now Germany has tried another goad in declaring that tho French arc buying in tho. provinces wrested from them the materials to house an army in tho tiold. All this begins to look as if Bismarck had absolutely detormincd that the present year shall not pass without the war which shall put the two countries on the respective levels he intends them to occupy for a long time aftor he has gone. A war between Franco and Germany in the early spring seems as certain as any huniau event can be. Of course, Bismarck will contrive to throw tbe onus of beginning on France. That France is determined on a war of revenge, and will continue to be till there is war, of course goes without saying. By France here is meant the comparatively few who have all the say in such matters ;— probably millions of the peasants would be only to glfd never to hear of another war. An early war between France and Ger-'. many is almost or quite certain. Any other big war there could bo would be between Russia and the greater paitof the rest of Europe. In the event of the lattor beginning first, Germany and France would, as before stated, be paired off to watch each other. The feelings that seeing others lightiug would evoke, added to the strain already existing, would quickly send them flying at each other's throats. Tho position is really such that it may bo put almost axiomatically thus : A very early war between France and Germany id certain in any case. If there is a general war elsewhere France and Germany will carry on a separate war to themselves. Of course two wars would thoroughly exhaust Europe, and tho subsequent settling up would mean tha hardest task of the kind ever known, harder even than in 1814-15, because everyone would be so weak. But that position is unlikely to come aboub, and if it were it is too early to consider it. There is almost certain to to be no early war, except a strictly local one between France and Germany. Any other big war must mean one between Russia and four great nations and several small ones, and that even Russia would not plunge into unless tho personal will of the deranged Czar should overrule everything. There is an enormous element of uncertainty when all depends on an autocrat whose sanity is more than doubtful, and, at any rate, whose tits of anger jeopardise the balance of his mind ; who is kept in ignorance of the real conditions of things by ill-advisers, and who is sourrounded by a huge military class ever eager for war irrespective of consequences. That tho Czar can show passion amounting to madness was lately exemplified when ho degraded a great Military Order for bravery by bestowing it on a drunken policeman in Roumelia, in whose person tho Bulgarians had "insulted" Russia by taking a revolver from him and locking him up till sober. Russia has for months been trying to goad the Bulgarians into acts to give her an excuse for occupying the country, but the Bulgarians have shown noble patience and dignity under the grossest provocations that have been a pleasurable surprise to Europe, and show them to bo thoroughly fit.for self-government; and without an outside Prince they are governing themselves admirably. That a people who have shown their excellent qualities in the war With Servia, and in bearing the bullying and insidious enmity of Russia, should have to take a Russian puppet and put on their throne seems monstrously unjust. So far they have resisted, and may successfully continue to. Even if their policy was not clear before, the shameless and long continued persecution of Bulgaria by Russia —that course of bribing and treasonstirring lately described by Lord Salisbury in language which electrified the Russians —lias made the course of England and Austria quite clear, aud tho heads of thoir Governments have stated it in such unm'stakcablo terms as have already influenced Russia towards reason and prudence. There is a certain limit of interference by Russia in the Balkans to pass which means war with Austria. Lord Salisbury has declared that England's action doponds on Austria's load, and England lights with anyone opposing Russia's progress towards Constantinople. There is a wonderfully clo:e alliance between Italy aud England, an alliance that is a continual cause for admiration of the Italians, and this alliance will eauae Italy to side with England. So strong is the ' bond between them that to h'ght with England Italy will evori help her old and bitter foe, Austria. To bo with England, Italy, such as she then wan, chared in the Crimean war. Then, of course, Turkey would share in the fight for her own existence, despite tho eccentricities and apparent Russian leanings sometimes shown in her actions, owing to the purses of some of tho pashas having been swollen with Rusnian roubles. Then, nearly all the small and warlike Balkan States would now side against Russia, as knowing her ascendency would mean their independence being swallowed up. It is even possible that Spain might prove her regeneration by imitating what Italy did in the Crimean war, aud helping according to the means at her command. It is the concern of nearly all Europe to restrain the progress of Russian absolutism and domination. Against these huge odds Russia would not throw herself if M. de Giers and the reasonable portion of her statesmen controlled affairs : if the other element had their way ifc would mean a greut Russian defeat. Of course Russia WOUld in such a war hu.ro no povrer at all on water. Always assuming that mason is in the, ascendant in Russia, a Russian war will not talce place : if a mad Czar or blind advisers precipitate war the result is certain. With one or two more provocations such as there have been lately the world will hold its breath till a FrancoGerman war actually begins. There seems no hope of such a war ending in other than a complete crushing of France and a general break-up of the existing balance of things. The time has gone when Franco could, aa in the latter end of the last century, drive back nearly all Europe in defence of hor new-found liberty Fighting is now too much a matter of [ machinery, and the maddest enthusiasm is thrown away against repeating rifles. Though perhaps the disparity of readiness and preparation is not nearly so great as iv tho last war, yet another complete German triumph seems beyond doubt. Germany has the ablest generals and the best trained soldiers, and probably the best arms, and the respective strength of the two nations is shown by tho fact that the population of Germany, which before tho war of 1870 was 38,000,000, is now 47,000,000, while France has only increased from 36,000,000 to 38,000,000 in the same period. As tho policy of making every man a soldier is in both countries the same, it follows that if other things were all equal, instead of being unequal largely in favor of Germany, the latter country is far the stronger ration numerically. After tho next war France ia likely to be a very small and weak state.