TRADE REVIEW

Otago Witness, Issue 3595, 6 February 1923, Page 18

TRADE REVIEW

SIGNS OF STRONG REVIVAL.

• r LONDON, February 3. Ihe stock markets have failed to maintain Ule strong position of a fortnight ago. Ihe accumulated influences of the Ruhr occupation, the Lausanne wranglings, the American debt position, and the crashing of the Continental exchanges brought about a much more subdued frame of mind among operators, with the result that the volumo of business fell away greatly early in the week, over gilt-edged securities losing some of their buoyancy. The position improved distinctly on Thursday, when the American debt decision was announced. More hopeful news came from Lausanne, and toe week wound up in far better style than it opened. Interesting comments were made on the trade position by the chairmen of the meetings of two of the big banks. Dr Walter Leaf (chairman of the London County Westminster and Paris Bank) said it was clearly impossible to hope for any great revival of trade from any of the old customers in Central Europe, whose recovery was entirely bound up with that of Germany. We must draw what little consolation we could from the fact that such an important industrial rival as Germany had virtually withdrawn from competition except in certain classes of goods in which she practically held a monopoly, notaDly dyestuffs. But despite the adverse conditions there were definite signs of a strong revival, which was already doing something to diminish unemployment here and which seemed likely before long to do much more.

Sir Harry Goschen (director of the National Provincial and Union Bank of England) said we expected a more rapid recuperation of the world’s trade than had proved possible, but there was no reason for despair. Certainly some progress had been made. We had secured the lead in tne export of iron and steel, which 12 years ago Germany had acquired from us and in which five years ago the United States had headed the list. For the first eight months of 1922 our exports were 2,060,000 tons, compared with 1,143,000 tons from the united States. Increased orders were being placed here, and in view of the great worldwide need for steel and iron productions for railways and other undertakings there were grounds for hoping for increased prosperity in this branch of trade. The setback in the price of merino wools at London sales is attributable mainly to the extraordinary conditions on the Continent, and particularly to the depreciation in currencies which have reduced Continental competition to a minimum. French and Belgian buyers can operate only at prices which will allow for a depreciation in value. The French and Belgian demand is also affected by toe continuance of toe strike at Verviers. There has been some competition from Germany, but much less than at previous sales. Americans and the Home trade are the principal purchasers, and the catalogues are generally being well cleared. Reports cf strong markets in Australia are tending to counteract Ihe effect of the decline in« the Continental demand. The supplies of Australian and New Zealand butter just arrived or due by the 7th inst. amount to 445,000 boxes. This may be rather more than the market is capable of absorbing immediately, and it is, therefore, possible that the price may ease slightly, but future Australian and New Zealand supplies are light, and hot and dry weather in the Argentine is seriously affecting the output, so that butter is bound to be scarce later on, and the future position looks very strong. Cheese stocks are very light, but the high retail prices are checking consumption, and as a good quantity of New Zealand cheese is coming along a reduction in Home prices appears likely.