EMPIRE TRADE OUTLOOK

Otago Witness, Issue 3489, 25 January 1921, Page 25

EMPIRE TRADE OUTLOOK

SUMMARY OF POSITION. LONDON, January 19. Mr F. G. Kelleway, Minister in Charge of the Department of Overseas Trade, in discussing the trade outlook, said that it was necessary to recognise that while the values of exports in 1920 showed a magnificent leap, the quantities had shown a big leeway compared with 1913. The goods exported from Great Britain in 1920 amounted to only 54 per cent, of the quantity sent out in 1915. He said he hoped that the manufacturers, despite the passing depression, would courageously prepare for an increased overseas demand probably within a few months, particularly from the dominions, whose markets, serving wealthy populations of enormous purchasing power, offered Great Britain substantial advantages over its competitors. It was not right that the United States should provide three-quarters of the Canadian imports. British exporters were hampered in Australia and New Zealand owing to the exchange deadlock. Whatever remedial measures the Government might take, he feared that substantial improvement was unlikely before March, when wheat would exert a beneficial influence. Mr Kelleway says that despite the present depression there are grounds for restrained optimism regarding the trade outlook, chiefly because we were leaving a period of abnormal values and finding real values leading to stability and progress. He emphasises the point that many of those voicing Labour aspirations viewed the situation superficially in claiming that increased production, which had been preached since the war, had led to over-production and consequent unemploy ment, the fact being that the productio l was still unequal to the world demand, but many countries were unable to provide the goods or the services necessary. A shrinking of employment and a scarcity of profitable orders succeeded the boom that followed immediately upon the armistice : but the British credit system had weathered the worst of the storm, demonstrating its solidity in a striking manner when a collapse seemed possible. The coa! output had suddenly overtaken the demand, which was lessened by the slump, but it was improbable that the American invasion of European markets would continue permanently. The international credits scheme was a step in the right direction, but it was not likely to be ready t-o operate in time to relieve the present depression. Meanwhile, Mr Kelleway recommended tho fullest use of the department's export or <1 its scheme.