THE APIARY.

Otago Witness, Issue 3383, 15 January 1919, Page 7

THE APIARY.

By J.A.

HONEY MARKET PROSPECTS. At present little can be said on this subject as far as the local market is concerned. There is, however, no reason why the market should not for some time to como hold up. English prices are abnormal, and are expected to remain so for some considerable time. It being the off season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is not unlikely that supplies will practically all be in the hands of the merchants. This in itself is an insurance that prices will remain high until England receives either large imports or a new crop. Locally there is one fear that honey-producers may. not knowing the proper position, sell at whatever they can get, and may by that means lower their own market. This year is one in which they could with great advantage trust the H.P.A. Our own organisation has the advantage to begin with that it has a contract which guarantees a good price for all the honey the Dominion oan produce. And- as shipping is going to be plentiful this year and the honey can be got away, there is no reason but that of funk for bearing our- own market. While the H.P.A. will supply the local as well as the Home market, it may be taken for granted that no decided drop in prices below English values will be allowed, and it is in the danger that a great army of small producers will compete against each other in a limited market that the danger of failing to get reasonable value lies. CROP PROSPECTS. We are out of touch with the south this week, spending a week in sunny Nelson amongst the apples. But coming north through Oamaru and Timaru districts we were struck with the great prospects that obtain in those districts, ad we think that probably the same will hold good in the south before this reaches the reader. We were impressed with the idea from general appearances that, though a late season, this year may probably give a larger crop than last year. HONEY MARKETS, U.S.A. The Great War is over--at least, the fighting is over, —and the price of honey has not declined. The market is a shade weaker to this degree, that holders of honey in some quarters are showing nervousness and are disposed to put their honey on the market at once. Big buyers have had decidedly more offerings since the armistice was signed than before, although not at any appreciably lower figure. The beekeeper who still holds his honey crop js asking himself: " Shall I hold on to my crop or.,sell now for what I can get?" Gleanings does not advise its readers when nor at what price to sell their -honey. But here is an opinion expressed by a friend of all beekeepers that we quote with approval: "Hold your honey and do not overstock the market just time, with tlio result that the price of honey may take a decided drop. If the owners of honey will hold on and ask the now current price for their crop they will get it, or get very near it. Since the armistice with Germany was signed by the Allies and the end of the war assured, the honey market has weakened but very little—much less than expected; and the only sign of weakness that has shown up has been that of a readiness on the part of some holders of honey to dispose of their stock now and at once. There is no reason, if the market is not flooded with offerings of honey right now, why the price of honey should not stay up just as the price of most foodstuffs is doing in view of the world-wide food shortage."

THE YEAR'S LESSONS AND THE FUTURE.

The Great War, the like of which never was and never will be again, has been brought to a close; or at least we may say that the awful business of killing has been suspended. With the end of hostilities there are new problems and momentous possibilities before us.' The beekeepers of the country during the past four years of awful slaughter have arisen to the occasion. Their sons have gone across and over the top. They have helped to relieve congestion of the sugar shortage not a little. Almost to a man the great mass of beekeepers went into the production of extracted honey ; for by so doing they could nearly double the amount of honey. Many were equipped for the production of comb honey only, and the change to extracted meant a large investment of money as well as a change in methods. If ever any industry speeded up it was the business of producing honey. Colonies were made enormously strong, and tiered up until they were head-high. The demand for bees in package form was beyond all precedent; for the slogan was, "Bees, more bees, and then more bees." Some of the largest commercial producers discovered that when they changed over from comb to extracted they could handle very nearly double the number of colonies with the sain© amount of help. Following the suggestion of Gleanings, many producers bought up bees in their surrounding vicinities —bees that would have done little or nothing _ for their own owners, —and put them, in the class of honey money-makers—the class that would help relieve a starving world. The severity of last winter took a fearful toll of bee life. It is probable that the winter of a year ago in the Eastern States was the severest ever known. Fortunately the commercial producers had fortified themselves and were readv for the emergency. But in spite of all their painstaking care the mortality was greater than for many years previous. The season, however, opened up with the brightest o£ honey-price prospects and honey flow. Then came the demand for bees in package form. So great was the call that practically all the- package men of the South were oversold. . So much for the past. What of the future? Will the demand for honey keep up as heretofore? Will it so to Europe by the shipload? Will the wholesale and retail grocers buy it by the carload? Will the price go higher or come down? Will the prospects of a normal or mild winter (on the theory that two severe winters seldom or never follow consecutively), will the fine prospects of clover that have been abundant everywhere this fall all over the Eastern States, and will the possibility that prices on all foodstuffs may sag cause the price of honey to sag the coming year?

In seeking an answer to these questions it may be well to review the course of last year's honey markets. When price's shot up on extracted honey from 12 and 13 cents in July and August to 20 and 22 cents in car lots, f.0.b., New York, in December and January, the question was raised, "Would these prices go down or up in 1918 with the prospects of a bumper crop in sight?" The prediction last year in big buying circles, and especially among the brokers who were looking for a chance to make a scroop, was that there would be a sag. But there was no sag. Prices began to climb. When they got up to 16 cents buyers began to say (and most of them were honest in the belief) that the price could not hold up. When the price went up to 18 cents they were staggered. When the figures began to move around 20 cents it seemed inevitable as fate that they would slump. In the meantime there were rumours of boatloads of honey going to Europe—of how the boys on the other side were paying 1.60d0l for a lib bottle of American honey. Prices continued to go up, but seemed to become more stationary at 20 to 22A cents a few weeks ago. So it will be seen that all prophecies concerning the honey market last year failed, and may again. Now that the war is over, will honey prices drop or stay high? J Here are .some facts that might lead to the conclusion that prices will drop: While it is figured that it will take two years to bring the boys back to America, the very process of bringing them back may release thousands of tons of shipping space for carrying foodstuffs from America to Europe to feed not only the Allies but the people of the Central Powers against whom we have been waging war. Already the Food Administration at Washington has issued a statement to the effect that the release of shipping space will have a tendency to increase the quantity of sugar and coffee in this country. This is doubtless true, considering the large quantities of sugar held in both the East and West Indies. With the importation of a. large amount of sugar the price of honey would naturally fall. Even at present there are indications of a more plentiful domestic supply of sugar, for the authorities at Washington now make it possible for each person to have 41b instead of 21b of sugar monthly. The possibility and probability that the hundreds of thousands of tons of sugar in the West Indies will soon be released may have tho effect of increasing the amount of sugar per capita still more. It was tho sugar shortage that stimulated an enormous domestic call for honey, and this shortage may soon begin to be relieved. Novw, on the other hand, their© are factors warranting the belief that the price jof honey will continue high. The sugar refineries of Europe in the areas devastated by war have been destroyed. Thousands of t acres that were formerly devoted to growing beets for sugar have been turned over to the growing of grains. Tho result is that Europe has almost no sugar in sight. The process of demobilisation will be comparatively slow. The internal troubles that the European Powers are encountering willrequire an enormous policing, taking millions of men to restore and maintain order. These men who would otherwise be producers in Europe will have to he fed. Then, moreover, there will be the millions of people homeless and landless who will have to have food. It is evident, therefore, that it will tax all the resources of both Americas to feed these people, and food supply and food conditions are likely to remain much the same as during the last several years.

Mr Hoover has said, since the armistice with Germany was signed, that he did not expect any great slump in the prioe of food —not for a year at least. He even thinks that the demand will be even greater, because the Central Powers will have to be fed as well as our Allies.

Now, balancing all these factors in the food market situation, it is our honest opinion that honey has about reached its peak in price, our chief belief for saying this being the likelihood _of an increasing supply of sugar both in America and Europe. But we are not expecting an immediate slump. What Drices will be 12 months hence no one can foretell; but the probabilities are that prices of all foods will change fjradually with a tendency downward. —Gleanings.