THE ENEMY'S LOST 4,000,000

Otago Witness, Issue 3327, 19 December 1917, Page 46

THE ENEMY'S LOST 4,000,000

DESPERATE EFFORTS TO FIND MORE MEN.

40 PER CENT OF CASUALTIES THAT NEVER RETURN.

Since the beginning of the war (wrote Mr H. Warner Allen from the French front in September) the Germans have called up the entirety of the 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, and 1918 contingents, while a considerable part ot the 1919 contingent cannot now long be delayed. Since 1914 they have had to call •up two contingents each year, with the result that their resources in men are gradually being exhausted, and their conscripts are being thrown into the battle at a progressively lower age. Recruits of the 1914 contingent when called up were aged between 19 years 8 months and 20 years 8 months; 1915 contingent; 19 years 4 months and 20 years 4 months; 1916, 18 years 10 months and 19 years 10 months; 1917: 18 years 2 months and 19 years 2 months; 1918: 17 years 11 months and 18 years 11 months; 1919: 17 years 6 months and 18 years 6 months The 1920 contingent -will be six months younger •when it is called into the field —that is, between 17 and 18 exactly—and consequently its youngest members cannot legally be available before January, 1918.

Severely as the French have been tried, their 1918 contingent is still in the barracks, while the enemy is incorporating hie 1919 contingent, and will have to call upon his 1920 contingent at the end of this year or beginning of next. Presumably he will not attempt to throw boys of 16 into-the firing line; consequently, to fill up the gaps in his armies during 1918 he will have nothing left but the 1921 contingent, which he will probably call up in quarterly sections as the recruits reach-17. The total number of Germans of an age to bear arms, that is, between 17 and 45, on whom the military authorities have been able to draw between August, 1914, and September 1, 1917, amounts to 14,000,000. This total includes the 1920 contingent and also the men serving who are now over the legal military age of 45. At the moment of mobilisation in 1914 the German military authorities called up every man who had military training: —that is to say, 4,500,000 men. • Each' yearly contingent in Germany consisted of about 550,000 men, of whom about 450,000 were passed as fit for active service. After mobilisation, in addition to the 4,500,000 trained men, the enemy called up the greater part of the Ersatz, which represented about 800,000 men, by far the greater part totally untrained. They were called to the colours by February, 1915, and between May and July, 1915, the contingent of that year, with an effective of 450.000 men, had' also been called. UNFIT CALLED UP. In 1915 Germany incorporated the greater part of the first ban of the Landsturm, 1,100,000 men, and between May and July the 1915 contingent, 450,000 men; then the remainder of the Landsturm, 150,000 men, between September, 1915, and November, 1915. the 1916 contingent, 450,000 men. At that period -the Germans seem to nave discovered that the war was going to last far longer than they had at first anticipated, and the re-examination ot men passed as definitely unfit for service was legalised. This " combing-out" process began in October, 1915. Thus Germany has mobilised: — 1914. Trained men 4,500,000 Ersatz-Reserve 800,000 1914 contingent 450,000 1915. Landsturm first ban 1,100,000 1915 contingent 450,000 Remainder first ban Landsturm 150,000 1916 contingent 460,000 Combed out from "unfit" ... 300,000 1916. Combed out from "unfit ' ... 200,000 Second ban Landsturm unstrained 450,000 1917 contingent ... 450,000 Combed out from "unfit" ... 300,000 1918 contingent 450,000 1917. Combed out 150,000 Part of 1919 contingent ... 300,000 Total 10,500,000 To this total of 10,500,000 must be added the remaining men of the 1919 contingent and the 1920 contingent, together estimated at 700,000 men, making in all 11,200,000. The remaining 2,800,000 men required to make up the total of 14,000,000, given as the grand total of German man power, are to be accounted for as follows: Men of military age employed in indispensable occupations in Germany, originally 755,000, now, as result of combing out 500,000 Men of military age abroad ... 200,000 Permanently unfit 2,100,000 Total 2,800,000 NotWng has so far been said as to the preset* employment and wastage of these forces *\ Taking the all-important question of wastage first, we find that the German casualty lists give up to July 31, 1917, the following losses: Killed 1,159,005 Wounded 2,922,320 Missing 710,000 Total ••• 4,791,375 4,000,000 LOSSES. -. These lists give losses which, roughly speaking, were suffered by the enemy down to about a month and a-half ago. The figures given have been tested by every detail of information at the Allies' disposal, and as a result a definite idea has been formed as to the amount of deliberate error that the lista contain. Factors which have been of real value in making these calculations have been the observed proportion of dead to wounded (which may be given roughly as one to three and_ a-half), the fact that in an ordinary tranquil month of trench "warfare the enemy loses on an average between 70,000 and 80,000 men, as also the ratio based on experience that, on an average, if there are 100 men out of action, 40 per cent, may be regarded as permanently lost for the army. Such calculations result in the conclusion that the real figure of permanent lossas for the German Army up to the present date should be given at about 4,000,000.