PATER'S CHATS WITH THE BOYS.

Otago Witness, Issue 3003, 4 October 1911, Page 80

PATER'S CHATS WITH THE BOYS.

J FICTION AND FACT. ! Under the heading of "Fact and Fiction"—l have filtered the heading to "Fiction and Fact," because what was intended to be the fiction was put first—there is 'going the rounds of the papers the following, only they appear in' parallel oolumns to make the contrast more striking : The old system must go. Whatever happens, that at all events is foredoomed. The question is, riot whether you will pre t eerve the Cobdenite theory . . . That system cannot remain ; it must be shattered by events ; it must go by the board. —Mr Balfour at the Chamberlain dinner. The ever-growing strength of the Tariff Reform movement must be very disheartening to the Liberals. The Opposition Leader paid a warm tribute to the accuracy with which Mr Chamberlain foresaw the difficulties and perils to which adherence, to Freetrade would expose the Empire. The citadel of Cobdenism still stands. But even its. staunchest defenders know that its downfall cannot be averted much longer.—Morning Post (U.). The total foreign trade for the United Kingdom for the six months ended June, 1911, amounted to £612,679,799. This exceeds the previous best six months— January-June, 1907—by £26,456,675. The Board of Trade returns. At the close of the quarter ended June 30 last there were 496 vessels, of '1,476,394 gross tonnage, being built in the United Kingdom—the highest ever ' recorded. All other countries put together are constructing 305 vessels, of a gross tonnage of 718,552.—Fr0m Lloyd's 1 returns. i Stated just like that, the figures of the fourth paragraph mean nothing at all; but such is the way complacent people put facts to lull themselves into a state of security or to bolster up their arguments. The increase, taking the figures of the first paragraph, is only per cent., spread over four years, and as Germany, i the United States, and other of our rivals are going ahead in a much greater ratio, we are losing ground, not gaining. Again, it may be that the foreign trade may consist largely of imports to be exported in British bottoms j if so, the addition of a great many millions to Great Britain's foreign trade will give little or no work to the British artisan. The figures in the last paragraph are equally worthless. It is quite true that twice the tonnage is being built in ths LBritish Isles as compared, with the production of other countries; but here again

we must know more. Does that tonnage apply to the mercantile marine only.' It so, what percentage of the world's mercantile . marine was. built in the British Isles 25 years ago? Wasn't the percentage muoh larger? Again, when instituting comparisons we must give comparative or relative increases. A few sets of figures will easily thow this, but I shall not give any to-day. Another day, perhaps. NORTHERN AFRICA. Supposing you take your miaps and have a look at Northern Africa for a moment or two. There has been trouble lately about Morocco, and now we, have trouble over Tripoli. France is aiming at getting complete control of Morocco, and Great Britain puts practically no obstacle in her way. Why? Well, I don't know, excepting., that it is understood that France does not oppose our occupation of Egypt. Pei.hatpa you don't know, but France once looked upon Egypt as hers by right, but we stepped iri, and the influence,, of France gradually waned; but that did not stop France from worrying us a great deal. Our acquiescence in French rule in Morocco, then, is probably what is called a quid pro que for France acquiescing in our rule in Egypt. But France possesses Algeria, too, and it isn't many years ago since she ..took possession-of Tunis, -which Italy looked upon as falling under her sphere of influence. At the present moment it is probable that Italy knows of- the agreement . draw* up by France and Germany giving France more power in Morocco in return for some concessions elsewhere —perhaps in the French Congo; and as France thus strengthens her hold upon North Africa' perhaps Italy sees it is time for her. to. huny up if she wants to establish herself on the south Mediterranean coast; and. perhaps, too, Germany is willing quietlyto back Italy > who with Gerfriany and' Austria form th© Triple Alliance/because anything' that Italy might do wall] tend to Weaken France, Germany's hereditary enemy. We can "perhaps" a great-deal, and not be much the wiser ; but this we can make certain of: Nations now, asever, are in a state of flux, some expand- * ing, some shrinking up—always in a state., of unrest; and every movement teDs : -»5...,..' that it is always a case of the survival of,. the nation most efficient in it£ readinessto.-, appeal to arms-,, either.alone or in alliance-' with some other nation.. '..'■■ •• -• :

Have you any idea of the areas- and populations of these 'African provinces ? A good way to get some conception is by comparing them with our own Do-; minion. The area of New Zealand- is roughly 105,000 square miles, and thepopulation about a million. Morocco is roughly 220,000 squa.'e miles, carrying a population of about 5,000,000 The chief qities are Fez, 100,000 ; Morocco, 50,000 ; and Mequinez, 24,000; while the: chief ports are Mogador, Da.r-aI-Bedda (Casablanca), Tangier, Rabat, and Tetun (Port Marteen). • ~;" ; Now take Algeria. . French province covers about 185,000 square miles, and has a population approximately the same as that of .Morocco: If you have read history you will know that Algerian pirates scoured the Mediterranean, "and its prisons for Christian galley slaves lasted from the sixteenth century to l830i" Then France subdued it, but "the con-. quest was long, difficult, and attended by • numerous insurrections. For 17 years the Arabs maintained a vigorous resistance, and after that the Berbers continued the struggle." Of the population, about v 600,000 are European,, of these 300,000 are '■:. French, 150,000 Spanish, and the rest . mostly Itailiaris and Anglo-Maltese. The French army necessary to keep order is about 55,000. Great Britain ■requires only about twice that number of white troops to rule India with: It is interesting to . know that "the country is divided by elevation and climatic conditions in three zones —(a) the Tell, or region of forests and arable land • (b) the Steppe, or region of herbaceous vegetation and of pasture land ; and (c) the Sahara, where agriculture is possible only by irrigation in certain limited spots called oases." Tunis is much smaller than Morocco or Algeria, being only about 51,000 square miles in area, or, say, the half of New Zealand; but it has over twice the population. Bizerta was made a French naval station many years ago, when there was great rivalry between - ourselves and France in the Mediterranean. If you look ■ at the map you will see that it has a good strategic position. Now we come to Tripoli, which includes Fezzan and Barea. I am not very well up in ancient history, but I think that "Tripoli" means "three cities," and re- - fers to the three cities founded in ancient time by the Phoenicians. - This week's Witness will tell you that the Italians are entering into possession because complaints have been regularly made of the lawlessness of the country under Turkish rule, and the disregard by Turkey of the protests, or the inability of Turkey to maintain law and order. One authority I have by me says that in 1885 the Turkish forces were increased from 3000 to 17,000 to keep down insurrections, but that the soldiery were expert in creating them. The area is about 400,000 square miles, and the population • perhaps 1,500,000; while the capital is Tripoli, with about 40,000 inhabitants. The oasis of west of Tripoli, is a halting place for caravans; another important oasis is Ghat. According to Hazell's Annual there - are about 10,000 Turkish troops in Tripoli now. For the past 30 years or more Italy has made it known that she has coveted Tripoli; so recent developments are not surprising, for she was only watching for a favourable opportunity. ■ .

THE SPREAD OF MOHAMMEDANISM. But there is a problem to face which may make it very difficult for Italy to reduce Tripoli to law and order. Mohammedan, fanaticism has to. be reckoned with, for within recent years Mohammedan missionaries have been converting North and Central Africa in a wholesale manner, and

stirring up am intense hatred to Christian people and institutions. Perhaps I'll say more upon this next week.