OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

Otago Witness, Issue 2934, 8 June 1910, Page 7

OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

{From Our Special Correspondent.) .. BRADFORD, April 22, THE GREAT QUESTION OF SUPPLIES.

■ The one question which eclipses all ot-bars at this moment ; s that of supplies, there being to-day spread before the trade such a- heavy weight of wool that if business was not unusually good a

serious decline in values would take place. It is all right for large supplies to be before the »yes of consumers when machinery is running at the maximum, and when prospects point to an absorption of all the weight of wool that is coming •© hand; but let there be a slackness in the demand, and we shall see even merino prices at a very different attitude. But sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof. If ever the time comes when the trade is confronted with such conditions—i.e , big supplies and quietness in trade—it will be absolutely imperative to- handle the Australasian clip- in a very different way to this season. Bradford is literally choked with raw material, wool-combing establishments and' warehouses are filled to the doors, while on every railway siding for miles can be seen waggons filled with wool, all waiting to he emptied if business houses had room. In addition, another meal, comprising 170,000 bales, confronts the trade next week, and, to say the least, the financial resources of the whole industry are being taxed, although we have heard little on thk head during the past two months. Still, one hears and sees a few important things which all indicate the actual standing of importers and topmakers. One big Bradford importer has recently written- twice to a firm asking if they could not deliver 100 pacbs of 70's tops, although the time specified is May and June. The contract price is over 2d per lb less than what they are quoted at to-day, and yet the firm plainly said that they wanted to make deliveries in order to meet their financial obligations, as they were weekly landing some very large weights of wool from Australia. GROSS ARRIVALS OF WOOL. As already said, the trade is at the moment confronted with a larger supply of wool than we have ever seen, mhJ it speaks volumes for the consumptive capacity of the industry when, in face of these heavy weights of wool, orices have steadily advanced. The Australian clip begins to arrive for the November series, and the quantities weekly increase right up to the end of the following May. Practically speaking, 2,000,000 bales have now to be lifted between October 1 and the end of May both in Australia and London, and even the veriest novice can see t, large amount of money is required to do this. Some idea of the gfpid way Australasian wool hae poured into this country since the lists were closed for last November series can be gleaned' from the following particulars, where I show what have been the gross ?,rrivals at the first three series of sales during recent years:

It will bo seen from the above that the movement of Australasian wool into tVs country during th 6 past three series forms a record in the history of the trade. Whether or no there is included in the above 1,201,200 bales the arrivals at Continental ports I cannot say, but I doubt it, the figures relating, I understand, to the imports into this country only. Since the beginning of 1900 there has been a gradual increase, the total showing over half a million bales increase compared with the corresponding date in 1900 —a wonderful accomplishment. Reckoning the above as being worth £ls per bale means that at least £7,500,000 more capital is required, even if the price per bale was the same in, 1900—a fact we know did not

obtain, values then being sensibly less than ' they are r.o\\\ I take it that at least ; 10 millions sterling more is to-day in, 1 circulation in lifting the arrivals of Australasian wool than obtained at the beginning of the century; hence no wonder need be felt at the trade asking for a i little breathing space. j Looking down the list of arrivals 'or the impending series one fact is very j significant —namely, the very large quantity of New Zealand wool to hand, no fewer ! than 198,610 bales having come forward. j Out of these 97.500 bales have- been forI warded direct, leaving 107,300 for sale. It is very plain to be seen that crossbreci' wool is going to form the principal part of the offerings, for ;out of 170,000 bales available only 63,000 can be looked upon as merino. These could easily _be disposed of in s week, and in, the opinion of some it would be a very movs indeed if part of these heavy crossbred arrivals could be carried forward to a later period of the year-. What the trade at present seems to be mostly in need of is a little time to digest its heavy direct imports, and I often think it is like adding insult to injury to ask a man. to buy when he is full up at home. IS THE LAST AUSTRALIAN CLIP FINISHED? An item arising out of the question of supplies is whether or no we have seen the end of the last Australian clip. The trade has been very much disturbed during the past . three months by the "•epeated assertion of one well-known authority at this end of an increase of 200,000 bales wihich the current clip will show next June 30, when the Australasian wool year finishes. It will be remembered that Dalgetys estimate an increase of 100,000 bales, while other srecd authorities sav there will be practically no increase at all. Now, in face of all these various opinions users want to know where thoy are. I must admit, the. quantity of fine wool available at the forthcoming series is a very disappointing weight, and if it turns out that there is going to be no more merinos available at succeeding sales prices cannot but further increase. Never in the history of the trade has there been such a small qauntity ar 9000 bales available from / the premier State, and these could easily >be lifted in a single day. Dalgetv's returns, showing the exports u(p to the end of April, will be more interesting than ever, for the figures will practically decide the increase for the wool year, with the exception of the Queensland new clip, which is at present being shorn. If there is not a better showing than obtained last month, then merino values will remain] high until the cpaning of another new season.

The situation so far as supplies are conoerned is being- minutely watched, but there is general agreement tbi,t from now onward' we are going to sea a big falling off in arrivals. The back is broken of the last Australasian and Cape clips, and if the trade can negotiate the coming season in a fairly good way values will not fall a great deal. i MERINOS VERY STRONG. With another series of London sales fast approaching -the tendency is for less business to be doing, until men see what is going to take place. There is very little scepticism about the course of fine wools, and another small advance is expected. The stiuation locally manifests no new feature, but without doubt merinos »re still in the van, and leading. During the past week there has not been passing much new , business, although some tonmakers have sold a few nice parcels. Those noinners who are well covered up to next September do not seem disposed to follow in the least, but rather to use up their contracts and await developments. Some people are still strongly of the opinion that a greater volume of supplies of even fine wool is still to come forward than is generally supposed, and although no serious set-back is anticipated, still the fact of Australia enjoying bountiful rains means more wool available early next season. Our view is that while it is unsafe to count upon any surplus, still there need be no uneasiness respecting any dearth of supplies. The present record consumption, together with the undisputed quietness across the Atlantic, means that sf far as Europe is concerned markets ire very adequately supplied with the manufactured article, while the United States giving in 6C early is a factor very few expected'. So far as Bradford is concerned there is as yet no slackening in consumption 01 production, although the market is a little more onesided than we have recently seen. The very fact of low crossbreds slowing down suggests caution. It is possible to-day to buy an of 40' ; tops at 14id', more topmakers being at present disposed to sell at that figure than during the past three weeks. The most satisfactory feature continues to be an undiminished consumption, but naturally supplies are on a record scale. Commission woolcombers are exceedingly busy, and' there are no accumulations of tops, notwithstanding that every plant is going day and night, these remarks aptplying more particularly to 50'e quality and upwards. The next month is going to be a time of real test, and Coleman Street is being looked forward to with more than usud ißtcf-.-rS*-.

Business is sound and good at the imm< factoring end of the trade, but the giving; way in low crossbreds is what is ot liked. Mohair is on the quiet side, but pricea are just about steady.

J armory March May series. series series. Total. Year, Bales. Bales. Bales. Bales. 1910 405,500 364,300 431.400 1,201,200 1909 354,500 422.200 377,500 1,154,203 1908 353,300 340.600 318,000 1,011,900 1907 275,000 397,400 352,000 1,024,400 1906 291,500 303,300 316,000 914 SCO 1905 235,000 366 000 296,800 897,800 1904 190,000 272.000 297,000 759,000 1903 216,000 278,300 304, oor 798,300 1902 211,500 252,100 367,500 831,100 1901 250 000 216,000 255,800 721,810 1900 194,800 263,000 262,000 719,830