SOUTH AFRICA.

Otago Witness, Issue 2914, 19 January 1910, Page 11

SOUTH AFRICA.

A LEADER WANTED. South Africa has more politicians to the square mile than any other part of the British Empire (says the Johannesburgh correspondent of the Daily Mail). If it does not breed many statesmen, it at least produces a host of men who are convinced that a far-seeing Providence intended them to he members of 'Parliament. It grows politicians as easily as mealies. The stranger travelling from Capetown to the Victoria Palis finds himself involved in a political argument 1300 smiles long. Everybody has views. Nobody has view r s which quite coincide with anybody else’s. And everybody is inspired by a deep desire to convince some harmless stranger that he alone is right and several hundred thousand other politicians are hopelessly wrong. The farmer sitting on his steep, the mining magnate in, his office, the clerk drinking his 11 o’clock cup of tea, the trader lounging in the back-veldt Kaffir storeone and all are willing to lay down their several tasks ,at a moment’s notice and indulge in the luxury of an endless political debate. * But the whole tribe of politicians is sorely troubled. The leaders we know. But what the leaders are going to do we do not know. None can tell what the divisions will- be at the first general election for the Union Parliament next year. HOW THE MATTER STANDS. The position is this. A federated South Africa comes into being on June 1, 1910. On that date a Union Cabinetmust be ready. As soon after that date as the constituencies can get themselves delimited there will be the first_ general election. Obviously political parties must be formed. But what will the parties foe? This is the point at which our politicians stick. Programmes do not matter much because all the programmes of all the panties contain the same platitudes. Personalities are more important because many people prefer a leader to a principle. Most important of all is it to know what the parties are likely to be. And upon this matter all South Africa waits anxiously for a lead. Are we to have the old parties, which, under a thin disguise and despite a few' exceptions, really mean British versus Dutch? Or will there be a Young Sorith Africa Party formed of the progressive leaders of both races, prepared to do battle with the Do Nothing-ism of the Hofmeyrs and the Hertzoga of the four colonies? Shall we find that the division will - ultimately be between Coast and Inland, or- that High Protection will be ranged again Low Protection, or agriculture enter the lists against mining, or a White Labour Party, oppose those who believe that the provision of an ample supply of coloured labour ought to be the beginning and the end of South African administration? THE COALITION IDEA. At the moment none can say. It is difficult enough here to suggest, what will happen. It is more difficult to explain to an over-sea reader why any particular thing should happen. South African politics are so purely South African. They are complicated by conditions which exist here alone. Theoretically the most obvious course is to have a Coalition Ministry representing both wffiite races and all four colonies. Union provides ■ South Africa with a clean slate—Heaven knows she has needed it badly enough. Are we going at once to write upon it all the old battle cries? The essential thing in South Africa today is to place the new machinery of government on a firm foundation and get it into working order. The four sets of old machinery in the four colonics forming the union have to be gradually displaced. Plainly this will be a long business, and at the same time a business quite apart from party warfare. It is a work which should be done by the co-o'peration of the most experienced meii in all parties. It does not call for the" arts of the electioneering orator. Coalition, - as its advocates freely admit, could not last for ever. But during this preliminary work of firmly establishing 1 he Union there is no cause for war. The founding of a proper Union Civil Service, the centralisation of the defence, and railway management, etc., are not subjects w'hich need necessarily provoke fierce party battles. The ideal Coalition Ministry would include General Botha and Dr Jamieson, Mr Merriman and Sir John Fraser, exPresident Steyn and Mr Moor. It would represent all South Africa, and its work would be to establish a United South Africa on the firmest possible basis. OLD RACIAL LINES. But, unhappily, the coalition idea has been received with an unnecessary amount of opposition. Negotiations are still going on, and may go on for months. In any case, the Premiership will cause trouble, for though according -to constitutional precedents Mr Merriman has first claim to the honour, the Cape Premier is not popular in the Transvaal. In the end Mr Merriman may, like Sir William Lyne in Australia, have to be content with a seat in a Cabinet formed by another statesman. But it looks very much as though the first general election in South Africa will be fought out on the old racial lines. The parties may be labelled in any way you like, but "in reality they will be British' versus Dutch. And the unfortunate part of this will be that General Botha, who is really a man of progressive ideas, will be forced back upon the more conservative and racial Dutch organisations. He cannot afford to quarrel with General Hertzog and Mr Schalk Burger. His race will have to be adapted to the pace of the Bond. GENERAL BOTHA’S POSITION. And if the struggle is upon these lines,.

then the Boers will win. Redistribution will assist the towns —which means the British. In a straight fight beween British and Dutch I believe the British would win. But, as usual, the British will split. One section, answering to the Transvaal Nationalists of to-day, will co-operate with the Dutch. Another section will allow a theoretical hatred of capitalists to force them into the ranks of the Labour Party. And already we hear of a Central Party, and various independents, and several secessions from the Progressive side; and all these movements will divide the British vote. Even Natal, which in the calculations of a few months ago was always balanced against the Orange River Colony, is uncertain. General Botha, cleverest of political tacticians, appears to have already gained the sympathies of Mr Moor, the Natal Premier, and though Durban may stand firm the rural districts may throw in their lot with the land-owning Dutch party. South Africa politics at the moment certainly present a puzzle. There may be new amalgamations, fresh dispositions of forces; but I venture to predict that the end will be as I have adumbrated, and that the Dutch, plus a certain British section, will be found fighting a purely British party led by Dr Jameson, Sir George Farrar, and the best-known Progressives of to-day. It will be unfortunate. One had hoped to get rid of racial divisions in this country. But in the end race always has the last word. The Union elections will tell the old, old story. Dutch cleverness will divide the British into two parties, and the Dutch, plus the British minoriy, will triumph. Britishers are not born politicians; they are too honest; they try too hard to be absolutely fair.