THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2811, 26 August 1908, Page 9

THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Friday. London cable advice to hand at the end of last week reported the wheat market quiet. The American market was said to be fluctuating owing to reported damage to the crops, butthe consequent excitement was not reflected in Europe. + Buyers were inactive, and not inclined to operate in excess of immediate requirements. It is thus evident that caution is the dominant note in <the world's wheat markets at the present time. The existing circumstances are so exceptional that almost anything might happen, and there seems to be no certain data upon which anything like an authoritative forecast can be founded". Writing under date London. July 10, Beerbohm argues for a "bullish" rat-hear than a " bearish" sentiment so 6oon as the new season is fairly opened. Thefigures quoted are worth studying, and if the conclusions arrived at are warranted there should soon be some indication of a finning movement. But it. is difficult to believe that anything approaching a permanent enhancement of values will mark the first half of the new season. The beet . thafc m&y be anticipated is that the downward trend of prices may be indefinitely delayed. Beerbohm's report runs as follows : — The outlook for wheat is getting distinctly more defined and clearer; for a considerable period buyers have acted with extreme caution, and have been awaiting more definite news with regard to the crops, especially those of America and Russia, upon which. so much depends during the next six months. Both of "these crops have proved, or are proving, disappointing. Last month we suggested that Am erica might reap at least 700,000,000 bushels; to-day there are not many who expect more tban 660,000,000. Ai simple comparison of the crops and exports from the U.S. during the past three seasons will at once show what this, means : — American Wheat Chop and Exports. Crop. Exports. Bushels. Bushels. 1905-6 .. rr .. 693;000,000 98,000,000 1906-7 735,000,000 146.000,000 1907-8 635,000,000 165,000,000 1908-9 660,000,000 ? It is clear that the large exports of the past 12 months w«re only possible by drawing freely upon stocks ; it is, indeed, esisimated that stocks, visib!« and invisible, in the XJ.S. are to-day about 100,000,000 bushels less than they were last year. This naturally means that the exports for the coming season must come from the crop of this year; the home consumption is, shown by the returns of the past three, years to be not less than 550,000,000 bushels, and for the coming season must b© put at 560,000,000 bushels; the export surplus would therefore be about 100,000,000 bushels if the crop does not exceed 660,000,000 bushels.. Then in regard to Russia, evider.ee is accumulating that for the third successive year fclie crop will N b& in a very moderate one, probably very little better than last year. The position in Russia in such a case would, we suggest, be quite serious as regards her ability to export; this 19 shown by th-e following return of the crops and exports of the past four years : — Russian Crops akd Exports. Crop. Exports. Quarters. Quarters. 1904-5 82,000,000 22,500,C00 1905-06 79,000,000 18,750,000 1906-7 .. .. w 63,300,000 11,500,000 1907-8 63,360,000 7,500,000 It is quite easy to assume that if Russia liad had the wheat to ship, she would have exported mote than is shown above for the past year, because prices hav^ been attractive, and other conditions have tended to promote exports. We are, therefore, tolerably safe in placing "Russia in the samo ■category as America, in this respect: that whatever export surplus she may have this season must come from the crop now being harvested. If the total of that crop dees not exceed last year's, it is, to otir mind, not improbable that the Russian shipments next season will be smaller than thej have? been in "the past 12 months. These conditions in Russia and America, are, we suggest, sufficient to justify our ramark that the wheat market is now entering ii pon firmer ground; and when it is remem- , beied that the Indian, surplus is this year a , mere bagatelle, one may be excused for sug- I gesiing that whatever may happen within ' the next few weeks as a consequence of the advent of the new wheat, the new season is iikely to be a " bullish" one, and not, as at one time seemed likely, a. " bearish " one. ' Put briefly, the outlook for the next six months is as follows: — Probable shipments from Argentina, 3,000,000 quarters ; froml India. 1,000.000 quarters; from Australia, practically nothing ; from Russia and Roumania, small, but depending upon the price. The question, therefore, is what will be required from America and Oitnada to make good these shortcomings? WHen American wheat holders come to ~ realise this position ■they will probably not be very free to sell un article, the d. em and for which is likely , to exceed the demand to a greater extent than was the case even last year. There is no chang-p in the Commonwealth markets, both in Sydney and Melbourne the quotation remains at 4s 3d and in Adelaide at 4s Igd. ' There has been rather more animation in the local wheat market, and prices are a shade firmer. The firmness, however, is from purely local causes, consequent on several millers being in the market, and the offerings are barely sufficient for the

demand. Quite a number of wheat holders have placed reserves upon their holdings far in advance of current values, thus the lines I available are few and far " between. At the beginning of the week small lines /of [ wheat could be pickedi up at from 4s to 4s Id on trucks, northern stations; but buying on account of both North and South Island millers had a tendency to firm prices. The market closes at -from 4s I^d to 4s 2d on trucks for milling wheat, with but little offering, and buyers still unsatisfied. The upward movement is not, however, regarded as having any sure basis, and in the absence of an firming tendency in outside markets values will probably relapse so soon as present demands — which are not great — are satisfied. There is a good demand for fowl wheat, the value of. which has firmed slightly in sympathy with milling, quality. The current quotation is firm at 4s Id, ex store There is no change in flour, the demand being normal. The association's tariff stands as follows : — Sacks, £10 15s ; 100's, £11; 50's, £11 10s; 25's, £11 15s. The shipping pric« is £10 10s, and the Invercargill "price £11. - The price of bran stands at £5 15s for local orders, and £5 10s f.o.b. for shipment. The price of pollard is unchanged at £7, both for local orders and for shipment. The oat market h&s suffered a further relapse owing to additional. resales on the part of northern holders, and several lines have- changed' hands at 2s f.0.b., s.i. Cables from Melbourne indicate the possibility of considerable business on the basis of 2s Oid f.0.b.. s.i., New' Zealand ports; but holders s^qvo. disinclined to take up business at this rate as in most oases if would involve a big loss. The theory is that the sale of several thousand sacks to Australia would improve the value of remaining stocks, and each merchant would prefer that the other man should* make the sacrifice. A few days, however, will show whether business will result at this level. Information to hand shows that African Algerians are offerinjr in Australia at about Id per bushel more than the Australian indication for New Zealand oata, this bemg, apparently, the basis upon which this indication is based. Thus, the present condition of I the market is so chaotic that quotations are largely nominal, varying according to the standpoint of the - t individual "*■ merchant. Orders for 6mall lines for coastal shipment are being executed on the basis of . 2s Id for B srrade sparrowbills up to 2s 2d for B grade Gartons. The ex store priceis 2s 8d for good feed lines. The price for oatmeal is unaltered, and the current quotation now stands: — £12 for local orders and £12 10s f.o.b. for shipment. The price of pearl barley 13 unchanged at £17 per ton for wholesale and £18 for' smaller quantities. Butter. — Butter continues scarce, and there is good inquiry. The local supply is insufficient to meet demands, and Wellington and Tarankai butter finds ready sale at late prices, which remain unaltered. Quotations are as follow: — Dairy, lib pats, 10id to lid; local bulk, Is 3d; Taranaki, Is 3d; milled, lid; first jrrade faotorv— bulk, Is 3d; prints, Is 3|d booked, Is 3id cashPotatoes. — A better tone has~ pervaded the potato market during the week, an<l good table sorts have been quoted at ruling prices. Quotations: — Prime Up-to-Dates realise from £4 to £4 2s 6d; medium to good, £3 10s to £3 15s; inferior, poor inquiry, £2 10s to £3 per ton; Prime Derwenta. £4 to £4 ss ; seed varieties have good inquiry at from £4 to £5. Cheese. — The market continues firm, with good inquiry. Quotations: 6jM to 7d. Eggs.— Coming in freely. Fresh, Is per 1 dozen. I Chaff.— Fair inquiry for prime quality for shipment and local demand; inferior lofcs are slow of sale. Prime oaten sheaf is worth £4 to £4 2s 6d; medium to erood, £3 5s to £3 15s flight and inferior, £3 to £3 7s 6d. Poultry. — Hens, 3s to 3s 6d per pair; roosters, 3s 6d to 5s 6d per pair; geese, 4s to -ss; ducks, 5s 6d per pair; turkeyshens 5d ncr lb, gobblers 3d per lb, inferior unsaleable. Pigs.— Baconers, scarce, s^d; porkers, s|d.