THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS

Otago Witness, Issue 2812, 5 February 1908, Page 22

THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS

Friday. Jjondon cables- to hand a week einoe reported that on the strength of weather reporta,' enormous American shipments, nnd the prospects of large exports from the wheat cargoes were er-ler. The Ole of two Australian cargoes was reported, one at 40s 6d and the other at 38a fed, tha latter being tbe lowest price this ye**. A review of the situation made by | " Tieerbohm" under date London, Deceinl<er 20, puts the existing situation in a very pitta light. This review points out that n all probability there will be comparatively little wheat available for export f?om America and Canada after the end of the present month; that Russia's available jpjxplu6 has practically been, all shipped. Tj»d ***t therefore from March to June uext [

there will be only one important source of wheat supply for- ail European requirements — viz., the Argentine. Thus, however largo the Argentine export available may prove to be, and latest reports hint at an abnormally large yield, exceeding the record average yield of 12 bushels per acre over an area of 14,200.000 acre 3 (equal to 1,750,000' quarters for each extra -bushel per aore), it cannot be sufficient for European needs. If, in addition, America should towards the end of the season prove to have o\ er exported, and appear in the role of an importer, the situation will be all the stronger. The indications therefore point to a gradual recovery in tone in Mark Lane, and to a strong market with advancing rates fion; March to June^ next, if, indeed, the uD\vaj<l move doe-3 hot arrive earlier,

" Beerbohm's " report referred to reads as follows : —

The market this week has Bhown much, more buoyancy and animation than was the case last week. On Friday last, indeed, the market seemed perilously near demoralisation, unreasonable although such a condition would be in an abnormal season like the present one. The La Plata surplus, whatever it may prove to be, may perhaps be regarded as having done its worst, so to speak, because, as 19 quite apparent to the intelligent wheat operator, Argentina's ability to export wheat in the next six months cannot be gieater than the European needs; rt is, in fact, a. moot question whether the Argentina shipments will not be seriously below those requirements. To put the statistical position again, in a brief manner, we have, as cur leaders Ijnow, estimated the European reauiremcats this season at 1,200,000

quarters per week. We do not suggest ' thai this amount will be impoited, because we do not think it would be forthcoming, except at very high prices indeed. We will assume th^n, that 1,150.000 quarters per week will K» made to suffice. The 20 weeks which have since the beginning of August is the usual period of large shipments; generally speaking they exceed the weekly requirements. This year, howe\er, the case is different, as the following comparison for the past iour years will show (in quarters. 000 omitted) • — Average Weekly Siiiiments to Europe, August 1 to December 15.

The market this season may be said to have been living upon expectations. Whether these expectations will bo realised remains to be seen, but judging from the position in Russia, as disclosed by the final official crop returns and by the position in America and Canada from whence it is confidently expected that after January next comparatively litt'e wheat "will be forthcoming, it is highly probable that any hopes that the second half of tlie season will make up for the short romings in the first half thereof in respect to the exports to Europe are to be doomed to disappointment. The Russian position may be deduced from the following record of the ciops and shipments for the past five jears —

It this statement means anything, it shows th_' annual home requirements of Russia to ha\e beeii about 58.000,003 quarters. This vein's crop of 63,675,000 quarters therefore, by inference, leaves a surplus of 5,675,000 quaiteis There is, therefore, but little doubt about the real scarcity in Russia this 1 year. Already, since August 1, the shipments have amounted to 5,000,000 quarters, against 6,000,000 quarters last season and 9,000,000 quarters in 1905. What may be forthcoming from now to next harvest seems to us to be entirely dependent upon the price obtainable. In Eoumania the position is very similar, and in the United States of America the position may be put thus: Crop, 78,000.000 quarters, supposed surplus (including 6,500,000 quarters of old wheat carried forward) 15,500,000 qua-rte-rs, exported from July 1 to December 31, about 12,000,000 quarters.

Under these circumstances the expression of opinion heard lately, that from March to June there will be only one important source of supply — namely, Argentina — seem* to be justified.

There is not a great deal of alteration in the Commonwealth situation. In Sydney this week's quotation shows a drop of la per bushel, and now stands at 4e 6d ; in Melbourne is it unaltered at 4s 3d, while Adelaide shows a slight recovery at 4s 3d. Latex ad.vice 3 report that {rrowers generally are not anxious to sell at current rates, looking for a better market, consequently offerings are not heavy. On the other hand, millers' requirements are smaller than usual, owing- to the impossibility of catering for the ordinary export business, thus both buyers and sellers are for the present marking time. Following are extracts from the latest Australian Teports to hand : —

The wheat market has not shown much activity diiring the pa-st week (remarks the Sydney Mail under date 22nd inst.), and in the last few days became decidedly easier, while rates were lower. A fortnight ago purchases at country stations were made at 4s 6^d per bushel, which was equivalent to 4s 9£d delivered at Sydney. On Saturday buyers were offering 4s s&d and 4s 6d on trucks at country stations. On Monday 4s Bvd,8 y d, delivered at Sydney, was the highest rate," and 4s 8d was the best offer on Tuesday Export business is at a standstill, owing to late rates being above shipping \ alues, the cargo prices having fallen to 40s par 4801b (c.i f., London). City millers 'have recently refrained from making purchases, and farmers are still determined to store their supplies, anticipating better prices later on. Stocks of wheat in the country, therefore, are rapidly increasing Many opinions have been expressed as to the rates that will prevail m March. At present it is difficult to find farmers who will sell at the prices offering. The changes of the market during the corning month, as ft result of the stand taken by buyers and growers, will be closely watohed by all sections of the trade.

A few weeks ago (comments the Town and Country Journal) Adelaide was the dominant factor for the Australian wheat market, but now that position is once more occupied by Mark Lane. It should be borne in mind by New South Wales wheatgrowers that London is not materially influenced by a shortage or abundance of Australian wheait, aa, even in the most prolific seasons, Australia is a smaller exporter relatively than Russia, India, the Argentine, the United States, and Canada. Th's summer's wheat yield in New South Wales threatens to be the lowest since 1897, with the exception of the drought period, 1902-1903. Assuming 1,400,000 acres to be reserved for grain, the total production may be only 8,686,500 bushels, an average of 6.2 bushels to the acre. The best general record is that of the south-western slope, with 8.2 bushels to the acre; while Riverina gives lesa than 5. Thus New South Wales may have to draw on Adelaide for additional supplies, but Adelaide is lower than Sydney, and the f o.b. Adelaide level is ruled by London. By paTity of reason the Sydney ma-rket price? throughout this campaign will depend not so much on local scarcity as on the Adelaide values influenced by LondoH.

The following- comparison of prices makes interesting reading: — "N.S.W. new milling wheat was 2s 10£ d a bushel in Sydney Uii3 time last year, and is now 4s 8d; new flour, Sydney roller, £7 a ton a. year ago, and now £10 10s; bran and pollard, B£d a bushel a year ago, and now Is 5d to Is 6d. This time two years aco new milling wheat in Sydney was 3s 2^d a bushel ; new flour, £7 15s a ton; bran, 9id a bushel; pollard, Is." Although one or two samples of new ■wheat from Canterbury have been shown on the local market durinsr the week, yet the market for new wheat cannot be said to have opened. It will probably be from a fortnight to three weeks before transactions in the new grain assume anything like dimensions, and that only « the weather continues fine. A few sales of old wheat, mostly for the North Island, are reported at 4a 7d and" 4s 8d on trucks and 4s 9d f.0.b., s.i., but local millers are unwillingf to give these prices, as at the present flour tariff it would entail an aotual loss on the grist* A few saleg of small

lines of new -wheat are reported at from 4s 3d to 4s 4d on trucks, while growers are asking up to 4s 6d. Contracts have been entered into for forward delivery on the basis of 4s 6d f.0.b., s.i., but buyers generally are inclined to sit still and_ await developments. The exception is in the case of millers who are out of both flour and v. heat and who are compelled to come into the market in order to be able to supply their quota to the association. In such a case, of course, they are compelled to pay full values for wheat.

Fowl feed is still relatively dearer thai* milling wheat, but the demand is srtiall. For good whole fowl feed from 4s lOd to 5s ex store 13 still asked, but in face of the incoming wheat crop these prices cannot hold for very long.

The peculiar fact that fowl feed is rela* tively dearer than milling wheat not only obtains in New Zealand, but in New South Wales as well. A recent Sydney advice cays : —

Although the New South Wales yield ia unusually light, the qua-lity of the grain is extra choice, and no cheap grades of chick wheat are available. Second and third grades of chick wheat are generally obtained in Sydney at 2s, 2s 3d 1 , and 2s 6d a bushel, but -this yeau all the chick wheat offering is either prime milling or second milling, -the distinction at the mills being that the second! milling is bleached grain. Hence best chickwheat, being this year prime milling, is occasionally quoted at Id a, bushel dealer in Sydney than gristing samples. Th« quality is the same, and the chick Wheat is sold in small quantities, from a few bushels to half a ton or more ; while milling wheat is. bought by the miller in farmers' small lota of 100 to 500 bags, and in lines of 1000 to 5000 bags from big holders.

Owing to & number of the mills having closed down pending the opening of the* new wheat season, the association is experiencing difficulty in supplying orders for flour. The miller's position is rather a difficult one. Wheat at present prices costs him about 4« lOd at mill door for the mixture, and at the present price of flour this entails a loss on the grist of nearly £1 per ton. The recent depression in the Australian market makes any increase ia the price of flour unlikely, therefore miller* are hoping to be able to purchase new wheat at from 4s to 4s 3d on trucks so aa to save an actual loss. In the meantime the New Zealand FlourmiHers' Association* quotation is unchanged — namely : — Sacks, £11 ss; 100's, £11 15s; 50's, £12 5 25's, £12 ss. The shipping price is £11 per ton, sund the Invercargill price £11 10s. The local market is quite bare of pollard,and stocks of bran are in exceedingly small compass. Quotations are unchanged — viz., Bran £4 15s locally, and £♦ 10s for shipment, and pollard £5 10s both for local orders and for shipment.

There is considerable difference of opinion: as to the future of &c oat market. The yields in Canterbury are said! to be heavy** but the quality of the grain, is rather thin. Sales of 6mall lines of old oats are reported at 2s M to 2s 5d f.0.b.5.i., and speculative quotations for new oats, spread forward delivery, have been made at 2s 3d! f.o.b.s.i. The future of oata would appeas to depend largely upon the prospect of as outside demand, but inquiries from Australia so far are on the basis of 2s 4jdl o.i.f. for A grade gartons. Much, of course, depends upon the weather, for until the Southland harvest is well on the way there> must always remain a degree of uncertainty in the position. The harvest on the Taieri is now in full swing and promises well, and already sales are reported on the basis of 2s on trucks.

The price of oatmeal remains at £14 -J.o* per ton. , The market is only fairly supplied with potatoes, and price* are a shade better* The current quotation is from 5s 6d _ta 6s per cwt both for Oamarus and Penin* sulae.

There is no change in dairy produce, and quotations remain as follow: — Butter :i Dairy pats and dairy bulk, 6id to 8d; »eparator pats, 7d to 8d; separator Bulk, 9& to 9£d; milled— first grade B£d, second grade 8W ; first grade factory prints, 113 a booked, Hid cash; bulk, lid cash. Cheese:' Factory mediums, 6d to 6|d; Akeroa loaf, s|d to 6d; mediums, sid to 6d. The price of eggs has advanced Id pelt dozen, and the current quotation is Is 2d. Quotations for poultry are as follow:—* Hens, 2s to 2s 9d per pair; roosters, 4s t<» ss; goslings, 5s to 6s; ducklings, 5s 6d to 6s ; Jucks, 4s to^ 4s 3d; turkeys, hens sd, gobblers 8d to 9d. Pigs continue exceedingly scarce. Bacon: pigs are quoted at 6d to 6±d. Bacon is scarce at 9d, and hams of good quality are unprocurable. ', The market is fully supplied with chaffNew season's is quoted at »5 to *o OT. The highest price obtainable for prime ol<* oaten sheaf is £4 per ton.

Russian 1902-03 .90-*-04 ,30-1-05 . )05-O6 'JOG-07 Average : 907-8 r Crops akd Xx Crop. Quarters. .. 75,685.000 . . 76 470,000 .. 82,820.000 . 79 235,000 .. 63.350,000 .. 75,500,000 . . 63,675 000 tPOBTS. Exports. Quarters. 16 500,000 17,500,000 22.500,000 19,250,000 11,750,000 17,500,000 ?

Qrs. average . . . . 1,053 .verage for vrhole year . . . *1 150 Qrs. 1,156 1,133 Qrs 1,163 1,166 Qrs 1,093 I,OBC