STOCK AND GRAZING NOTES.

Otago Witness, Issue 2782, 10 July 1907, Page 8

STOCK AND GRAZING NOTES.

' x BT IfcUIVM. -Twßj, Stock Smltt : FvrtrigWy : BumsMs, Wednesdays I»vercaT«M, Tuesdays A (kburUa, Tuesdays Monthly A*di««ton,Wedawrfayß caMimt Palmewtop, ' Ftrlntghtly: . Winton, and W*iBalclutfca, Fridays *™* i ?l. „ Gsre. Tuesdays rtruitemUy: , ( auaru, Tuesdays Heriot, Kelso and JCye•ur». '' At all markets the prices of prime sheep and. lambs remain high, bat inferior sheep and iambs are' dull) and store stock are hot so easily disposed of. The dry weather so long prevailing in Canterbury may affect the future considerably. A drenching downpour is wanted to thoroughly soak the ground after nine months' very dry weather.

The meat market, like most other mar. kete, fluctuates considerably, and statistical information as to supplies on hand, shipments afloat, etc., often forms no reliable guide to anyone who tries to forecast the tendency of prices, although finally the law of supply and demand must rule. Speculative .forward selling has for ' years been common in the grain and other markets, dairy produce not excepted ; but until lately the frozen,, meat trade was free from ties class of speculation. It is no longer so, and it appears that these speculative sellers are to be found in this colony, not in London, as the following from the Pastoralists' Review's* London, correspondent under date lObh May shows. He says: —

I suppose it was bound "to come, but to hear of " bear sales " of N.Z. lambs on m, large scale is somewhat startling. I believe it was first tried' last year, and then it "came off"; this year it has not. The sellers on this basis have not been able to deliver, and litigation and difference-paying are proceeding galore. Early in the season Canterbury lambs were sold— -about 75,000 to 100,000 it is said — by speculators for January-April delivery at low rates to market dealers. The sellers took i a wrong view of the course of supplies and ; prices, and thought that they would be able to pick up goods in London in time to meet j their contracts'. But this they have not been able to do; one firm bought 12.500 lambs, and have only had 500. These bear sellers had advices 'that the crop of l»mb was veryheavy, but - they reckoned without their drought. Large numbers of regular market operators, buyers or sellers, are concerned one way or the other in the business. The dealers who buy frozen meat forward in order to cover their ordinary requirements are not too well pleased, for the payment of differences does not replenish their stores. Bear selling prevails in most trades, but it certainly is a system which may land a big retail buyer in a very awkward position. At the moment, when these sellers are picking up every parcel they can, the effect of the manoeuvres is to harden values. But this kind of thing establishes, fox a time, an artificially low range of values, and in any case it must cause fluctuations in the market value of lambs of a, more or less unhealthy 'nature. 3Sfo one seems to know who the j principals in these operations ' were, but it is said that the bear-selling idea was started in the colony.

From the tendency of -the market, as reported by cables from London, it looks as if these forward selling speculators would again come home, as prices are falling, as the latest figures olearly show there is no shortage of supplies at present, nor likely to be any, but rather a larger supply both from New Zealand and from Australia.

The Pastoraliste' Review of 1 15th June has the fallowing re the .position and prospects of the meat export trade : — • The position and prospects as far as Australia is concerned have not changed materially during the past month. A moderate fall of rain in the Riverina, southern and central-west portions of New South Wales has improved the outlook there Eoinewhat, but more is still required. The rest of the Commonwealth from which stock is drawn for the frozen meat trade is, so far, enjoying a good season> with moist, warm weather, and enough grass to carry the lambs on for some time. The lambing is now general, and, with the exception of that part of New South Wales mentioned above, promises to turn out well. This points to « busy export season later on in the year for Victoria and South Australia, but we are inclined to think it doubtful if New South Wales will be able to get away as many lambs as usual ; so, taking the Commonwealth as a whole, the total expoit to the United Kingdom for the 1907-8 reason should be somewhere about equal to that of the one just completed — viz., 1,400,000 carcases. Mutton shipments will very likely increase, and ought to closely approach, if not exceed, 1,000,000 carcases, but beef cannot be exported next season in any quantity, as ths stock is not available. It must be understood that the above is only a rough estimate-; the climate here is altogether too erratic to forecast so far ahead with any degree of certainty. We hear of several fairly large lines, totalling about 80,000, of fat sheep having recently been purchased in Queensland by a meat-exporting firm, so evidently there will be some heavy shipments j>f mutton from that State during the next two or three months.

The latest information from Australia, shows that since the above was written bountiful rains have fallec in the districts most needing it, and that the -lambing has been satisfactory.

The latest returns re the export* from New Zealand, Australia, and Argentine show how both the New Zealand and Australian, supply is increasing. River Plate shows a slight rcductionr It appears that the large meat companies in South America who moDopolise the tradx?' there were arranging to reduce the 1907 shipments by 10 per cent., but did not come to terms on this point, and Nature took a hand, and did the reduction for them, or, at least, prevented any increase. Drought, tick, and other small calamities lessened the supply. But this is only temporary. There is great scope for expansion in Argentina yet, but the greatest increase I expect is yet to come from Australia, where I consider they are just getting ready. Barring drought, progress will be great. It will be a year, perhaps two, before beef is exported largely, as the runs are still stocking up, but everything points to a big trade when they do start, as the cattle increase mounts up rapidly now.

With a plentiful supply in Australia of merino ewes to breed crossbred mutton, it will take

Canterbury all her time ■ to hold her good name for primest frozen mutton. For it is the shortage of New Zealand merino ewes that -is the- cause of the small export of typical Canterbury -mutton.' Mr W. A. Benn, of Sydney, writing in the Review on. the question of New Zealand v. Australian mutton, says, and is, I think, right: — "First cross or halfbred mutton is worth more than the deeper bred mutton now commands in. New Zealand, owing to the scarcity of merino ewes in that colony." Halfbred mutton, is the true Canterbury type which has always commanded top price. During the year ending December 31, 1906, New Zealand frozen meat exports were: — Mutton, 1,739,245 carcases; lamb, 2,288,335 carcases; beef, 137,616 quarters, showing a very considerable increase on the previous year. During the six months, January to June, 1907, inclusive, the New Zealand exports were: — Mutton, 1,128,086 carcases; iamb, 2,131,569 ; beef, 100,669 quarters, showing an increaee over corresponding six months last year of 50,654 carcases mutton, 340,822 carcases lamb, 36,956 quarters beef. This is a rr:ost . remarkable increase considering that Canterbury and part of Ptago suffered from drought for .a period, and that in consequence the supply was shorter considerably than it would, have been under normal conditions. We may rest . assured, therefore, that the supply from New Zealand is on the inorease.

Australia's export of mutton and lamb during the year ended December 31. 1906, was 524,472 caTcaaes mutton, 1,185,858 carcases lamb — a ten per cent, increase on the previous yea*. For tihe five months, January to May, 1907, inclusive,' Australia, exported 477,307 carcases mutton and 413,714 carcases* of lamb— an increase of 279,087' carcases mutton (more than doubling the export), and 59,206 caroaees lamb on the corresponding five months in previous year. The increase in lambs might have been greater but for the fact that stocking up is still going on apace in Australia, and sheep-owners wisely keep back to a. -large extent their ewe lambs from the export trade. It can be seen, therefore, that the Australian supply of frozen mutton and lamb for^ export ia very much on the increase. The above shipments are to United Kingdom only. In addition to this Australia, from January to May inclusive, sent 130,000 carcases mutton, 10,000 carcases lamb, and 42,000 quarters of beef to South Africa.

Very little frozen mutton is now going from River Plate to South Africa. Australia, seems to have secured the bulk of the trade, mainly owing to the fact that they have regular lines of steamers to Durban, Capetown, and other ports, sailing about fortnightly. .

For the year ending December 31, 1906, the export of frozen meat from Argentine was: — 2,908,123 carcases mutton, 67,325 carcases lamb, and 2,002,553 quarters beef, a decrease of 417,995 carcases of mutton, 62,155 carcases lamb on previous year. For the first five months of 1907 the fisures were: — Mutton, 1,241,058 carcases; lamb, 53;88S carcases ; beef/ 724,640 quarters, being a decrease of 81,244 carcases mutton, an increase of 2134 carcases lamb, and a decrease of 197,124 quartere beef on same period previous, year. Some years ago it was thought that Argentine would supply so heavily as to almost glut the market, certainly to bring down prices. This has not, -as yet, come to pass. I rather think Australia is to be New Zealand's greatest competitor on the markets of the world in frozen meat, but Argentine will get over her troubles and will still be a very heavy supplier. The possibilities of development in South America generally are very great. Development, however, will be slower and steadier probably, but none the less will supplies increase.

Zealand has not made the most of what at one time we thought was our strong point— quality. . We have gone back in this respect, and the matter should be attended to in view of the heavy competition in sight. As long as wool keeps at a high price there will be less tendency to rush the frozen meat trade with heavy supplies. I see no immediate prospect of wool falling. It v is to a large extent the skin values that have kept prices of sheep and lambs up. If wool fell to prices we have- seen, the increase in frozen meat sullies would be greater. Meantime, with good seasons in Australia, the increase will steadily grow and be great enough, I think.