IMMINENT INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2744, 17 October 1906, Page 40

IMMINENT INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS.

ENGLAND v. GERMANY.

(Fkom Ou» Own Corbespojjdbnt.)

LONDON, September 1. Public curiosity haa not yet boen satisfied as to what really took place between the King and Kaiser during their recent interview in Germany during King Edward's journey to Marienbad. The King himseU declares that the interview was a most pleasant one, and that he " was thoroughly satistied." The Kaiser has expressed himself ia similar terms. But that is not exactly what the people want to know. Everybody tcok it for granted that as tin* meeting had been arranged between the uncle and nephew, loth men. being gentlemen as well as relatives, it would at least pass off with superficial cordiality. Both •Sovereigns manifestly desire to convey, without committing themselves, the impression that in reality there was a good deal more than this in what happened. We are required to understand that something like a definite basi3 of permanent friendship, not only between the uncle and nephew, but also between their respective Governments and peoples, may be regarded as having been arrived at through their per-< sonal conference. Which is as may bs ! Certainly it has long been held by prominent Gtatesmeh in both countries that a. personal meeting of the two Sovereigns would do more than anything else towards bringing about the mutual understanding between England and Germany that the best friends of both nations so earncs.ly desire to see established. It was satisfac tory to note that each country appeared to have the- most unbounded confidence in the ability of its own Sovereign to " come oat on top" in case of an encounter of wits. In England we had unlimited faith in the capabilities of our King as statesman and diplomatist; in Germany strong confidence was reposed in the Kaiser's masterfulness of character. Each country bslieved that its monarch was bound to win should there be a real tussle between the two intellects. Wherefore, as neither country knows what rea-lly passed between Edward and William, each country is happy in its conviction that if it has not actually got the better of the other, it at least has not got the worst of the case. The difficulty which most people, not wholly " in the know" or entirely " behind the scene*" as regards international politics, have found in front of them haa been to be qvute sure what really are the questions afc. issue between England and Germany. In the case of France it had been dear enough Egypt and .Morocco were always sticking . out as possible 3a.ris of aggravation. Those darts have been, we all trust, blunted or even broken by the recent entrnte. Germany certainly asserted herself ecnewhat aggressively as- regarded Morocco, but all that is over and done with now — st least wo believe so. True, one Germun journal recently flew a pilot balloon as to alleged German interest in Egypt which would h&ve to be bought out if any genuine Anglo-Ge r man entente were desired. But this implied claim was- almost universally pooh-poohed — was in fact laughed out of court almcst h?fore it got in. Unfortunately it has leaked out witbin the last day or two that there are at least two other questions which may have soon to be faca i by both England and Germany, and as to which a definite understanding will need to be arrived at if the respective interests of tha two nations are not. to be allowed to drift into a position of direct conflict. In the first place, as usual, an ardent devotee to the cause of peace lias placed that cause in some peril by what appears I on the surface to have been a distinct indiscretion- Monsieur Yves Guyot. so loug the - firm and consistent friend of England, has b'on writing an article of a somewhat alarmist character on the danger that j Germany at no ve»-y distant date will attempt the annexation a;»d absorption of Ho!lan-i and Belgium. He has made this danger which he believes that he foresees a. ground for rejoicing over the Anjr'oFrench entente, which 1-c rcaarcis as an impregrnab'e barrier against the success of aay such attempt, and indeed almost a safeguard against such an attempt being made. Now, I need hardiv say thai it lias been the earnest desire and ttrenuaos effort of both the British and French Governments to prevent the- idea gaining ground that the Ar.glc-French entente is directed against

any other nation whatever, or is anything but a deed of pure international friendship. But manifestly, if it be represented in the light in which it is placed by M. Guyot, it becomes at once a direct challenge to German 3', and a positive instigation to her to make the very attempt which M. Guyct declares that the Anglo-French entente can and will prevent. Moreover,, while it has long been well known that the Pan-Ger-manists ardently hope and believe that one day the German Empire will be completed by the absorption of those desirable and valuable additions, Holland and Belgium, and indeed Denmark- also, there has been a very wise hesitancy in giving publicity and a quasi-objective reality to these secretly-cherished aspirations. Fcr they are well aware that alike in honour, in interest, and of necessity. England, at anyrate, is bound to fight to the death against the annexation by Germany of any one of those thiee countries. It is perhaps, therefore, a pity that M. Yves Guyot's war«n Anglophilism has led him to raise a public discussion upon so very dedicate and perilous a subject. There is another matter, too. which may yet proTe "very troublesome. England's interests in Persia are only second to those [ which she has in Egypt. The Persian Gulf is, aud necessarily must be, an English : sea, not merely on account of its ordinary commercial value, but also owing to its intimate relation to our communications with India. Now. Persia at the present moment appears on the eve of practically dropping to pieces. Generations of misgovernment and mismanagement, both probably fostered from without for reasons which are not far to seek, have all but done their work, and r those best able to judge rejrard a complete political break-up of the Empire as closely imminent. Toward the hastening of this crisis the virtual, chaos which now pre%-ails in Russia has materially contributed. Russian diplomacy has long aimed at placing Persia practically under Russian tutelage. To attain this end it was necessary in the first place to bring the Government and foreign relations of Persia into a state of boneless disorganisation. The process haa Ions: bcon quietly proceeding, andthe climax i? now aimarently within ineasura.bl-0 distance. But for the paralysis of Russia's energy by her crushing defeat abroad and disaffection at home, Russia would now have? stepped in as the arbiter of Persia's fortune. But Russia is no longer able to play this p-\rt. She is not only incapacitated by war reverses and horn" troubles from taking tlie learl now rhe Persian crisis is at hand, which she has so long plotted ard laboured to brinsr about, bnt she is ako subject to the further disadvantage that, altogether apart from England, she has now to reckon with another and a militarily stronger Power — Germany — who ha« eea^d to draad Ruwia as a potent i-il neril on her eastorn boundary, and who is quite clear that, the mission to utilise and exploit the Persian situation belongs to her — Germanv — alone. Hore. then, lies th<» other danger of Ann-10-German misunderstanding. England cannot and will nc l arj'l should not permit Germany to rule in Persia. That would b? a constant and imminent danger io our Kmpixo in the Fast. England cannor with safety forgo her interest in tho'Mi'l F<3st arv more tlnn in the Far ■R<t.«t if irx^fed she <;s»n in tho Near Ei»*i either. Therefore, if. Germany should tiers? st in nushirrar fe~r designs on Persia Vvvond such an agreement veo-arding the P^acHad railway a* England may nrucl^ntlv ap"*-ov«. th<*n th» duv will not be far off when Foifflann will have to +<*ke « firm <=tnnrl »nd say to Cornianv. " Thus far &hiH tl>ou "onw and no farther !" An that is th<> threateniiisr rloud which Km-or-ean «tat<--smen now rlisoern upon tho international horizon.