THE AVAR FEVER IN JAPAN

Otago Witness, Issue 2604, 10 February 1904, Page 27

THE AVAR FEVER IN JAPAN

THE "AGONY OF RESTRAINT."

The Hongkong correspondent of the Sydney Daily Telegraph, writing on January 12, says : — Although the New Year has not provided any sensational development in the crisis here, it has seen the production of the long-looked for reply from Russia to Japan's demands, and it has supplied time for the intensification of the bitterness burning in the breasts of the Japanese. The situation is more acute now than ever it has been, and indications are that war might break out at any minute. The attitude adopted by Russia is consistent with that which has characterised her diplomacy from the commencement of the present difficulty. She endeavours to put Japan off by pretending in one section of the reply that she is granting concessions, and in another by advancing what she designates as reasonable proposals for the control of Korea. She suggests that Korea shall be partitioned, and her suggestions for its future 'admii istration are of such a character as to secure for herself just what the Japanese have been doing their best to prevent her obtaining — namely, the control of the northern half of the peniiibula. In her demands, Japan practically refrained from mentioning Korea, restricting herself to matters connected with Manchuria., and in regard thereto formulates questions to which she expresses her urgent desire to have categorical replies. That she did not get them goes without eaying, for Russia does not at present intend to jeopardiS3 her own chances of fcucee-ss, in peace or war, by being decisive in her answers, or speedy in their dclnery, ju^t to oblige Japan. The r-esu.lt has been a sore blow to that section

of the Japanese Cabinet who have boon consistent advocates of peace, and whilst they have so far been successful in restraining the dogs of war, they have now been forced to recognise that they will coon have to slip them if Russia does not take fright at the probable interference, of Great Biitain and other Powers, and climb down. Throughout the whole of Japan the greatest excitement prevails, and the war fever has such a painful grip on the people that the agony of restraint is driving them to distraction. Parliament has recognised the gravity of the situation, and has passed special ordinances allowing the Chinese indemnity to be drawn upon for war purposes, and appointing a Council of War. The activity is acute in every branch of the nvlitary, and it will not be the fault of the. far-seeing Japanese commanders if any department is found wanting at the cruoial hour, so far as the navy is concerned, and it is to that branoh of the system of offence and defenoe that we have to look for the first indication of Japan's superiority or inferiority to Russia. It is encouraging to note that every nerve is being strained to bring men and ships up to the highest state of offioiency. Japan is extremely proud of her navy, and her tars have conduoted themselves so as to earn the respect and confidence of the people of every nation with whom they have come in contact, a striking instance being that given during the recent visit to Australia of a portion of the fleet. As fighters, too, they are resourceful and plucky, and gave ample exhibition of the stuff they are made of in the conflict with the China floet in Wci-hai-wei Harboar. Alongside of the Russians, they have many superior traits, and in fighting, in particular, will shine out muoh better, that being due in one respect to the fact that, whereas the Japanese are imbued by loyalty to take up arms, the Russian is forced to do so with the knout, and at the best of times is merely a fighting machine that will only work whilst in charge of a strong master.

THE ATTITUDE OF CHINA

So far, China has not made up her nurd whether to stand by Japan or not, though the indications are that she will. Russian Ministers are endeavouring to compel the Court to promise to lend support to Russia, or remain neutral, but it is obvious that China has serious doubts about the Muscovite sincerity and honesty of purpose. In the meantime, however, sh© is overhauling her fleet, and getting her army up to war strength. The arsenals are working day and night to cope with the extra demands for munitions of war, and all the Viceroys and Governors have been ordered to make their forces efficient. Prince Ching and the Viceroy Yuan, joint controllers of the military affairs in the empire, have decided that compulsory service will have to be enforced, and their idea of 12 years' service, divided into three — as Changpei troops, or regulars ; three years as Yupei troops, or reservists ; three years as Yannei troops ; and three years as Ming troops, or militia men. The pay in future is to be 10 dollars per month, and drill is to be on German and Japanese lines. Some of the provinces seem to take to the scheme kindly, and have promised to supply 90,200 men for war at a moment's notice. With this encouragement it is hoped that a formidable array will be made by China, and since a large number of Japanese officers are drilling troops, the further hope is ente<rtain( d that they will be utilised on the side of Japan.

The British fleet here is ready to sail, being fully prepared for war if necessary. All have been docked, cleaned, and overhauled, and it is certain that they will give a good account of themselves if oalled upon to do so.

THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

Just as the mail closes, writes the same correspondent a day later, word comes from Tokio that Japan has at last informed Russia that the reply forwarded by her is unacceptable, and that unless she re-cedes from her position Japan will promptly resort to arms.

Though this is not exactly an ultimatum, it looks very much like it, for the people are agitating the Government to waste no further time with Russia, but to give her a few days in which to amend her message if she deshes to,, and, failing that, to declare war. Feeling in Japan has been further inflamed against Russia, if such a thing were possible, by the report of the attempt to destroy the new Japanese cruiser Nisshin prior to her departure from Genoa, and it has had an effect upon the public similar to that produced in America when the Maine was blown up before the Cuban war. The Cabinet has been forced to the conclusion that diplomacy is almost exhausted &o far as Russia is concerned, and the precaution had been taken to warn China of probable hostilities, and asking her to remain neutral, and at the same time to take special precautions to prevent a rising against foreigneis in the Shantung and Yunnan provinces, the hotbeds of anti-fcreigners. All along it has been expected that the Chinese will, upon the outbreak of war, make an effort to crush all foreigners in the empire, and the Legation Guards in Peking have been considerably strengthened, and gunboats disposed on the various rivers to be near at hand if wanted.

A large number of passenger steamers have been chartered by the Japanese Governments as transports, and it is probable that the new N.Y.K. steamer Nikko Maru, just finished for the Australian line, will undertake her maiden voyage with troops on her decks. An endeavour has also been made to buy two vessels for transport purposes at present in use in the Philippines, but their purchase has not yet been closed.

A REVIEW OF THE SITUATION,

The present situation ha-3 arisen out of the Japanese war with China some nine years ago, and a brief review of the circumstances which have since tran.sj>iicd will be of interest. In the course of a brief campaign by land and sea Japan compelled the Son of Heaven to sue for pea.ee. The terms ehe proposed were onerous, but not disproportionate to the magnitude of her victories. Japan demanded the cession of the island of Formosa and the payment of a large war indemnity, and as a ple3ge for the permanency of the new regime she bad established in Korea she claimed to retain possession of the Liaotong Peninsula, with the fortress of Port Arthur, which *he had occupied 'during the war. The war had been waged nominally to secure the peace and independence of Korea, and to abolish the more or less shadowy rights of suzerainty China had hitherto exercised at Seoul ; and Japan not unnaturally desired to interpose a permanent barrier between Chinese influence and tho peninsular kingdom over which her own ascendancy w r as intended to be henceforth paramount. In a word, Japan was tent upon, retaining a foothold on tho contiuciit oi Asia. Whether tHs was a

wise, policy or not from the point of view of Japanese interests is open to discussion. But it unquestionably represented the unanimous sentiment of the nation.

RUSSIA INTERVENES

China accepted the conditions proffered to her. She was not in a position to reject them, for a resumption of hostilities would have meant the immediate* occupation of the Chinese capital by the Japaness forces, which had aheady overrun Manchuria. Moreover, there was no reason why she shotild take upon herself the responsibility of rejecting them, for when Li Hung Chang proceeded to Shimonoseki he already had in his pocket an aeeuiance from Russia that the most obnoxious of those conditions would never have to be fulfilled, as Japan would not be allowed to retain the Liaotong Peninsula. No sooner had the treaty been signed than Russian diplomacy went to work. With the support of France and Germany, who were both actuated by considerations of general policy rather than by strong convictions as to the merits of the cisc, Russia intimated to Japan that her retention of the Liaotong Peninsula, with the stronghold of Port Arthur, must be regarded as a permanent threat to the independence of the Chinese Empire, as well as of Korea, and a danger to the peace of the far Bast. This intimation was conveyed with all the courtesy of diplomatic foTms, but Japan was given at the sam-e time plainly to understand that the three Powers meant to back it up by force, if necessary. It was a bitter pill for a young nation to have to swallow after the intoxication of unchecked victory in the field, hut it swallowed it, and swallowed it without even pulling a wry facp — than which no greater proof of self-restraint could well be given.

KOREA.

Eight years have elapsed since then, and Russia has gradually entrenched herself in tho very position from which Japan was ejected because her presence was pronounced to be c. permanent threat to the independence of the Chinese Empire as well as of Korea, and a danger to the peace of the Far East. The fruits of a great war which Japan was not allowed to reap have been gathered in by Russia almost without an effort, and Port Arthur, which was scarcely more than a toy pistol when the Japanese wrested it from the Chinese, has been converted by the Russians into one of the most formidable fortresses of the world, the naval base of the most powerful fleet that has ever displayed the Russian ensign, the headquarters of a Russian army which, is constantly being reinforced from Europe, the terminus of a great trans-continental railway connecting the Baltic and the Black Sea with the Pacific Ocean, and the seat of a great Russian vioe-royalty.

As if this transformation scene enacted under the eyes of Japan were not enough to provoke almost beyond endurance the amour propre of a proud and sensitive people, Russia determined to bring home its full significance to the Japanese in a form that shall not merely nourish their resentment of tho past, but openly threaten their interests in the future It is not enough that Russian troops should be encamped on the battlefields of Manchuria watered by Japanese blood, that Russia should domiuate Northern China from her new strategio position in Manchuria and hold in her grip the Manc-hu dynasty at Pekm, whose ancestral birthplace she detains, or that she should have overthrown for her own benefit the whole balance of naval and military power in the Gulf of Chi-li. She no longer takes the trouble to attempt even to conceal the fact that the absorption of Manchuria is but a preliminary step to the absorption of Korea.

MANCHURIA

That is the crux. Japan has more or less reluctantly resigned herself to Russia s occupation of Manchuria Her statesmen have for some time past realised that even if Japan might still hope to drive the Russians out of Manchuria by war, tho task of holding it indefinitely against them would place an intolerable strain upon her military and financial resources. Her interests are at anyrate not vitally enough engaged for her to enter single-handed i7r' on such an adventure, and she is bound to recognise that there is no prospect of material support being afforded to her by any other Power. But Korea is quite another matter. Here material interests and national sentiment are at one, and both speak equally loudly against any surrender of Japanese aspirations. There is probably not a single responsible Japanese who is not firmly convinced that Japan cannot allow Korea to pass under the control of Russia, or, for that matter, 01 any foreign Power, without fighting to the death. If Japan were to do so, she would not only abdicate* her past "but fatally compromise her future.

The Japanese Administiation notifies the Telegraph Department that " private, telegrams in code language cannot be accepted." The Telegraph Department its advised: — Telegraphic communication between Sv\nkopinund and Windhoek has been restored. In completion of circular telegram nith regard to the prohibition of secret language for correspondence with Japan, private telegrams oiiginating in all offices of Japan (including those, of Formosa and the Japanese, offices at Fu>=an, Seoul, and Chemulpo'i wi'l be written in plain Japanese, English, or French. Private telegrams from Korean offices for Japanese offices in Korea and for other foreign countries passing over Japanese lines aie only accepted when written in plain Japanese, English, or French. Private telegrams in isecrct language emanating from central office of Yokohama and Kohe ca.i (should such a case arise) be allowed conditionally on the production of the codeaccompanied by an explanatory no<e written in Japanese, English, or French. All telegrams parsing over Japanese line.' in Japan and Korea shall only be accepted at the risk of senders.

Meesrs W. E. Reynolds and Co., the local agents for the Nippon Yustn Kaisha (Japanese lino of mail steamers), have recehed cable advico etating that the sailings h<n o been cancelled of the steamers Nikko Maiu and Kuniano Mara, which were timed to sail from Sydney for China and Japan during February and March. This practically means that the N.Y.K. will ha\e no sailing from Australia until after March.

Mr S. llollcuul, who re--kle.s ncai Capo Colvillo, Auckland, recently picked up on the beach between Capo Coh-lio and Port Jackson a large piece of nmbei&ns weighins? 121b, and estimated to bo worth from Jv&OO to £1200.