NOTES BY COLONEL MORRIS

Otago Witness, Issue 2604, 10 February 1904, Page 27

NOTES BY COLONEL MORRIS

The long-looked for Russian reply to Japan was received by Prince Alexieff by telegraph on the 4-th, and M. Rosen, the Russian Minister at Tokio, handed it to Japan on the 6th — that is, last Saturday. We are told that though the irreducible minimum is not granted; yet the reply is couched in conciliatory terms, and thus gives grounds for hope that it will meet with a reception permitting mutual accord finally being reached. This statement, of course, comes from St. Petersburg, and represents the Russian, view of the reply. It is very clear that " hope told a flattering tale," for Reuter officially announces that the Russo-Japanese negotiations have been broken off. This is tantamount to a declaration of war ; indeed, I doubt if any more formal declaration will be made. M. Rosen has probably by this time packed his little bag and is already on his way from Tokio.

It is too early yet to guess what will be the first steo taken by the belligerent Powers. As I said in ray last note, the Japanese have the entire command of Korea from Seoul, the capital, south to Fusan and M-asampho. That they hold Ohemulpho is shown by the fact that when Russia made the attempt to throw troops into that port they were driven back by a large JaDanese fleet. The distance, however, from Seoul to the Yalu River, where Russia has massed her troops in strategic positions, as we have been told, is not less than 200 miles, and as the country is bare of roads it will take some time for the Japanese to march that distance. It would also be foolish of the Japanese to make a direct frontal attack upon Port Arthur, protected as she is by a Russian fleet of some 10 battleships, besides her fortifications. I think, then, that the most probable step they will take will be to attack Yongampho and Antung, in the first place. Yongampho •will not be found in any exoept the most modern of maps. It is situated in the estuary of the Yalu River, and has one of the most capacious harbours in Korea, for it is in. Korea. When Russia, as the London Times tells us, in 1896 took steps to give effect to the timber-felling concession in the Yalu, extorted from the Emperor of Korea., they found it was absolutely necessary to purchase land for occupation at Yongampho. This land was afterwards resold to the Koreans on the understanding that it should be leased to Russia. Yongampho has been since fortified and armed iby Russia. One of the chief disputes with Japan has been that, although this port is in Korea and the Korean Government have wished — not only wished, but promised Japan — that it should be a treaty port, Kussia has always opposed the suggestion, and in December last sent four battleships to Chemulpho, and threatened to send 3000 troops to Seoul to support her veto. Antuns? lies at the mouth of the Yalu, and is also a port. I think, then, that it is provable that the Japanese navy will steam to the Yalu and bombard both these ports, lit i» certain that they will neither of them he, toything like as hard a nut to crack as Pert Arthur. If .the Russian fleet comes out to ptsteet these .ports they will have to We the protection of the guns at Port Sur and, if I do not mistake, this is $U What Japan would like Again 1 successful in destroying these two fortified ;posts, the Japs could land their forces on the Manchurian coast somewhere between 'the Yalu and Porv Arthur, and thus take their enemy in the rear, besides having a good chance of destroying the railway in the rear of Port Arthur. I, of course, do

not that this will be the line of action the Japanese will take, but I think it the most probable course they will follow. Later news simply confirms Reuter's cable yesterday morning that negotiations had been broken off. Russian representatives abroad were advised that, owing to the receipt of the Japanese note, negotiations were broken off and the Czar had ordered the ambassadorial staff to leave Tokio. Then the message adds that owing to Japan's action in not waiting for Russia's answer the consequences of the rupture rest with Japan. As to this I had something to say in my last r.ote, but Sir William Halliday Macartney's statement puts the matter in a nutshell: "Russia's policy, merely covering bellicose deeds with pacific words, had loft Japan no alternative except fighting." From Sydney we get news direct from Japan to its Consul in Sydney. After stating that his Government had determined to terminate pending negotiations, the Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs adds that their Minister at St. Petersburg had been ordered to withdraw. Each of the Powers then having withdrawn their Ambassadors, war has been declared. The only overt act of war that has so far taken place is that Japan, it is stated, has despatched troops to Seoul. There can be little doubt that Japan has been sending troops to Seoul for some days past : the 1 difference is that she now does openly what she has hitherto done secretly. The position of the belligerents I have already given above 1 as far as I understand it. It will not now be . long before important news will arrive.

Russia's internal affairs will, of course, be a very serious trouble to her ; but it is too late now for her to stay her hand. In the Caucasus and the Balkan States, from Jews, Armenians, and Finlanders, there are troubles to distract her attention, and as it is probable that troops may be required to quell tumults that may arise she cannot denude Russia-in-Europe of all her armies to fight in the Far East. Great Britain is evidently quite alive to her responsibilities in the East. She has ordered a prompt supply of coal to the British fleet in Japanese waters, and has also sent out to China a large quantity of ammunition for the use of the ships-of-war. I regard all this as only precautionary measure's in case of having to interfere in the long run ; but ac it is well known that the treaty with Japan only forces action upon her when any other nation comes to the aid of Russia these open preparations for active service may only be intended to warn any such of what they may expect.