A STRANGE SITUATION. GERMANY'S ATTITUDE.

Otago Witness, 6 February 1901, Page 75

A STRANGE SITUATION. GERMANY'S ATTITUDE.

ALLEGED OFFER OF FRANCE. (From Oue Own Correspondent.) LONDON, December 22. It we had been weakly sanguine enough to expect that the Christmas which comes in next week would see us in the happy position of enjoying " Peace on earth, goodwill toward men," we should now be undergoing a most bitter process of painful undeception. Notwithstanding that, the strange but reiterated assurances of the London daily papers that " the war is virtually over," which have been confirmed by Lord Roberts with the emphatic assertion that '" the war is now •cner," the war persists in continuing as seriously as ever. .Even this current week has witnessed two more or less serious reverses to our arms and tbe invasion of Cape Colony by two bodies of Boers. The invaders are estimated to number some 2000 men, and it may not be difficult to check their progress ; but the situation is complicated by the disquieting fact that a most formidable recrudescence of disloyalty among the Queen's subjects of Dutch blood in the Cape Colony itself has been coincident with this fresh invasion of British territory by the 'Boers. The greater part of our army of a quarter of a- million men would appear to be constantly occupied in guarding our lines of communication, which are constantly threatened by the enemy. The three ablest Boer generals — De Wet, Botha, and De la Rey — are as active as ever, and have a large and efficient following, and are abundantly supplied with arms, ammunition, and stores. Dozens of times we have been solemnly and officially informed that De Wet, or Botha, or De la Rey was " completely hemmed in," was " surrounded by a cordon through which it was impossible to break," was on the eve of capture, and so forth. But in every case this has proved to be the merest bombastic bragging. Whether it were De Wet, or Botha, or De la Rey who was in such hopeless straits, he invariably skipped clear with the lightness and ease of a ballet dancer. - I. begin to wonder whether Lord Roberts may not in reality have said, " the war ? is not ended," and whether the word "not" may not have become transformed into " now " by one of those telegraphic errors of which we have had so many of late. For that would be true, whereas the other distinctly is the reverse of the truth. All this talk about " guerilla " warfare is childish. Our forces are "at it" as hard as ever, and have sustained as many losses since we heard that " the war was over " as would ordinarily seem a very formidable and lamentable list. Lord Kitchener is calling earnestly for reinforcements. His troops are weary and wornout after more than a year of war, and at present it is not easy to see whence the demand is to be Bupplied Yet several pet detachments and officers have been sent home — at the dictation of social influence — to be feted and glorified, while the hard work in the field still remains to be finished. Even Lord Roberts himself has left the front, and will be here in 10 days. Of course he has to take up his new position as Commander-in-Chief, but it seems an unlucky beginning to leave so incomplete the war which has won for him the supreme office. Admittedly he has an admirable successor. Still, the oxupn does seem unpropitious. Moreover, it now turns out that so far from having a free hand in the War Office reforms, which is the urgent need of the time and on whose drastic execution the continued existence of the British Empire will depend, Lord Roberts will be as entirely under the thumb of the Ministry of the day as Lord Wolseley has been. And we know from sad and bitter experience what that means. On all sides, from Conservatives as well as from ultra-Radicals, the same cry goes up, that our whole military system is rotten at the core owing to the septic action of "society" influence. Yet there is no serious attempt to remedy the evil, and there seems no prospect of such attempt being made. The " society woman's pet" appears likely still to remain the dominant factor in the military system upon which our national - existence depends. It is lamentable, but, unhappily, it is only too true. Meanwhile, it has been decided at the last moment to abbreviate very materially the triumphal pageant which had been planned for Lord Roberts's entry into London. Meanwhile Mr Kruger does not prosper in his mission. He has been badly snubbed all round by the European Governments. One Continental writer observes with intense bitterness and chagrfn that they are all far too desperately afraid of England to venture upon manifesting any open sympathty, even though the people generally of Germany, as well as of France, Belgium, and Holland, are strong proBoers in feeling. Indeed, Count Bulow, the German Chancellqr, was curiously and cynically candid in hia admission that Germany must take care of herself and not be muddled into war with England for the sake of mere idle sentiment. He said plainfy that the result of the famous Kaiser-Kruger telegram had taught them a sharp but wholesome lesson. England had intimated plainly that if any CoutioQilUhi £ow attenuated to interfere be-

tween herself and the Boers she would instantly mobilise her fleet. That would not suit Germany at all. The German people might fuss and shout as much as they pleased, but their Government knew what it was about, and was not going to be hustled mto an Anglo-German war for a whole army of Krugers. So what with Oom Paul being stopped at Cologne by a peremptory me a p;tge fiom the Kaiser that he would not receive him, and then informed by the Oar that he was too unwell to be bored with Boers, and wl, at with being "shooed" out of France by President Loubet, and warned oflf Belgium by the Belgian Government, and very gingerly tolerated even in Holland by the Dutch Ministry, although priiately " recepted " by the young and inexperienced and no doubt sentimental Queen, poor Mr Kruger is ha-ung literally a " tottering time." There are even people rude and unfeeling enough to comment on the fact that he ha« boiled from his country with all available funds— none too honestly acquired -^and has left his " poor bleeding people " to bleed away. Of course, he says he has run away merely to get more help, but as he has been plainly told that no European Government is quite so imbecile as to pull the chestnuts out of the lire as his catspaw, there is no valid reason why he should not return at onca to his post. But,' oh dear, no ! He wants to go and winter in the Riviera, preferably at Nice, and the Nice authorities and people arc frightened out of their wits lest he should do so, and thus ruin their English winter season. So he really does seem to be personally in rather a tight place just now. " Nobody wants you, sir! " everybody says. It is, of course, terribly unfortunate that all this renewal of hard fighting and British reverses and invasion of British territory should have come to support the reiterated assertions of Kruger and Leyds that the war is not over and will continue for years. It greatly strengthens their hands in their appeal for intervention, and were not France j and Germany so very nervous about offending England the matter might assume a very serious phase. The existing situation strongly accentuates the justice of the unpopular opinion I expressed at the outset of the war, that it is a great pity the British Government did not act openly and proclaim af all risks the true easus belli — viz.. the existence of a Dutch conspiracy to destroy the British South. African Empire and drive out the English,— instPad of putting forth the plea, untenable on tleir own showir.g, that they went to war to redress the wrongs of the Outlanders, a proceeding explicitly barred by the very convention to which they appealed. It is true, of course, that the definite act of war was committed by the Boers invading British territory, but our own preparations had already amounted to a mobilisation and demonstration, so that there was no doubt what we meant. Any Government would have taken our proceeding as an act of war. And we had to do it, because if we had delayed we should have had to reconquer South Africa or forfeit our sLatus as a first-class Power. As it ■nas, we very nearly had to tackle the entire work of reconquest. Had the Boers been skilful and sharp enough to follow up their initial successes, or had our commanders made only one more blunder, all the Cape Dutch would have risen, and, as Kruger and Steyn had warrant for expecting, all South Africa would have bean ablaze down to Capetown itself. Events have pioved that the timid pol'cy is lot the safe one, and had our Government prepared from "the first to crush out alike Cape disloyalty and Boer indolence under the iron heel of military force, instead of first shilly-shallying and then rushing mto war unprepaied, and so incurring check after check and humiliation upon humiliation, there would be a very different tale to tell to-day, and many fewer desolate homes and vacant chairs by the Christmas fires. As it is we ha\e cause to be thankful that we have not fared worse. Our losses have exceeded the number of the entire Boer army, if the estimate of Mr Cecil Rhodes — who is not exactly a pro-Boer — may be relied on. If, as he saj's, the Boers never have had more than 30,000 men in arms, while we have had more tl an eight times that number, it is not easy to understand, even taking into account the gross muddling by our War Office, why we should have taken a year and a-quarter to beat them and not have completed the task yet. Now, as all along, the Radical leaders and many of the party are doing all in their power to encourage the Boer* and to influence Continental feeling against England. Of course, the notorious William T. Stead is in the foreground of the dastardly treason. He is now at the Hague fawning on old Kruger, who, I am rejoiced to learn, snubs ,him pitilessly. Tbe latest exploit of this fellow is to announce that he has implored the Deity to give victory to the Boers and to inflict defeat upon Britain- and to cauee England to lobe the whole of her South African Empire. One is not surprised at anything that may issue from the author of that most foul and infamotis publication " Hell Let Loose " — the most shameful and shameless libel upon our brave soldiers that ever was penned by a vile slanderer. What one IB surprised at is that it should continue possible for such slanders and libels to be uttered and printed, and such traitorous and disloyal sentiments to be published broadcast with absolute impunity. With reference to the virtual admission by both the Kaiser and his Chancellor that they " climbed down " about the Kaiser-Kruger telegram because they knew England was mobilising her fleet, another admission, even more candid, has "been made by a. prominent French statesman. It is to the effect that when that historic message had been sent the French Government made a secret offer of an alliance with England if this country chose to treat that telegram as a casus belli. So the whole situation is curiously complex. Here we have France offering to join England in declaring war against Germany. Yet three years later France and England were on the very verge of mutual war over Fashoda, and at the same time that France was making advances to England as against Germany she was secretly initiating the course of anti-British intrigue in the Soudan which so nearly led to an attack on the French coast by the English fleet. A few days ago I was chatting with a _ distinguished member of the Salisbury Ministry of 1886, who still keeps well in touch with his former chief and colleague. He declared plainly, as I did at the time, that had not Franco yielded suddenly as she did at the last moment, the British fleet, which was in complete readiness, would have begun the attack without a moment's warning, would have blockaded and bombarded all the French harbours and coast towns, while France was not in a position to offer the slightest effective resistance. He holds the case to be on much the same footing even yet, and the Mercier soheme of invasion of England, to which I referred in a recent letter, to be one of the silliest effusions that ever emanated from a foolish brain. My friend, who is a very cmii nent authority on military tactics, asserted emphatically that any attempt »t an invasion,

of Britain would simply bring on IYar.ce prompt and utter ruin ; for although the British fleet may not be all that could be desired, it is quite able to crush that of France almost at a blow, and still better able to prevent the exit from French harbours of such a force a« would have to be provided for the invasion of England. This seems to be realised now by mo^t sane French writers, who prefer to dwell on the greater facility with which British maritime commerce could be destroyed and trade ruined. The latest proposal, however, is not to fight at all in case of war breaking out, but simply to buy up all the world's wheat supply, and so reduce England by means of starvation. That seems rather a " large order." But it cannot be too plainly pointed out and carefully noted that the one topic which at pie&ent engages the attention of French minds is the possibility ?ml probability of a successful French war against England. We can never say we have not been *' forewarned."

Wednesday has asfain been fixed on as the statutory half-holiday for Wellington and suburbs. In connection with the report that an oak cask- had been found at Cook's Cove, believed to be a relic of the early navigator, old settlers discredit the theory of its connection with Cook, pointing out that the cove was frequently visited by whalers and trading vessels in days gone by. It is also said that the place was used a good deal 'for the purpose of smuggling, and the story is related (say 3 the Napier Telegraph) that many years ago a schooner from Sydney, which was coining to Gisborne with a valuable cargo, being pressed by the revenue boat, ran into the cove and unloaded her goods, and then came on to the Big River empty, where she was searched, and, of course, nothing dutiable was found. It is said that the owner subsequently sent his mate in another vessel back to the cove to collect the cargo, which he did, but carried it on to Napier -and sold it, decamping with the proceeds.