THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

Otago Witness, Issue 2323, 8 September 1898, Page 40

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

FRESH STORM-CLOUDS. (Fhoii Our Own Cobbespondent.) LONDON, July 30. \ Events continue to shape themselves in : , lamentable accordance with 'the stormy fore- ! cast which several months ago I was compelled ito put forth. The tempest does not burst, : but it gathers steadily. : I To those who have not followed intelligently the intricacies and ramifications of the international situation, it came as an nupleasant surprise, even as a severe shock, when Mr Goschen, in bringing down his Naval State- i ment, a few days ago suddenly announced, , without any previous warning, that he must ask for an additional vote of £8,030,000 sterling over and above the large vote already set down, for additions to the British navy. The House of Commons was thunderstruck. So were the public. Yet this tremendous new departure is merely the rational and necessary outcome and development of the existing situation, as I have outlined it in your \ columns. England is preparing for war. There is no doubt at all about that. And for a war of attack, too ; not for mere defence | It' is coming, and coming fast, slowly as ; events may seem to move in the eyes of those j who can discern only the surface of things. ' Mr Goschen went so far as to say plainly in the House that the new vote was iutended as a counter move to the huge naval programme announced by Russia. But Russia has an ally — that ally the second naval Power in the world. The day after Mr Goschen's declaration -came a statement that Russia had abandoned | her big programme. That deceived nobody, i -Nor will the British naval vote be reduced ; by one penny in consequence. We are beginning to krow our Russian at last. Just pre- , viously M. Pavloff had withdrawn with an ; apology his threat to leave Peking if the "Chinese Government did not concede all his anti-Britannic demands. But then he quietly pub forward various new claims, and at the present time it looks very much as if Russia had forestalled England on every point of the Chinese question. ■Seemingly, Pvussia has secured the whip- , h«tnd with regard to the railway-construction . dispute, having elicited some sort of pledge ' from the Chinese Government that they will j nob grant a mortgage over the line or power j of alienation to any person or company proj viding the capital for such construction. As J this, of course, means "choking off" anybody ; who might have been disposed to find the : money in the ordinary way of business, and not for political purposes, M. Pavloff kindly ( hints that the Russo-Chinese Bank will be ! only too happy to do all that is required. This arrangement, if carried into effect, would mean a distinct diplomatic defeat for England, and a serious interference with her recognised policy. But that is not all. Hitherto everybody : here has been relying on the assurances of the English Government that China had given a most solemn and explicit pledge not to i alienate any part of the Yangtse Valley. I But now ihat terrible special cor- ; respondent of The Times — whom Lord ! Salisbury must, at least, once a I week earnestly desire to kill — has disj closed ipsissima verba of the previous ] so-called "pledge." Will it be believed? All the Chinese Government do is (after expressing their complete understanding that "the British Minister would be glad to be in a position to communicate to her Majesty's Government a definite assurance that China would never alienate any territory in the provinces adjoining the Yang-tse to any other Power, whether under lease, mortgage, or any other designation") to effer the following vaguely polite aphorism: — "The Yamen have to observe that the Yang-tse region is of the greatest importance as concerning the whole position (or interests) of China, and it is out of the question that territory (in it) should be mortgaged, leased, or ceded to another Power." Now, was ever so flimsy and hazy an utterance ever before put forward as a "pledge?" Even from a European Power its vagueness would render it of no value. Coming from the Chinese Government, with whom j promises possess infinitely more fragility than j the proverbial "pie-crust," it is surely an in- ' suit to the common sense of the nation to pretend that any pledge at all exists. Russia j has only to squeeze very slightly, and the Uhine&o ."pledge" would utterly disappear. And all this means that England is being steadily edged out of China. It is being done very politely and very gently, but at the same time most resolutely and persistently. Everybody in England seems to perceive this except the Government. Ministers, to all outward appearances, ignore the situation utterly, and are quite satisfied with the I Chinese' and Russian assurances, which they I so often flaunt proudly before a contemptuous House and country. Yet at the same time, they are secretly making tremendous preparations for a sudden war of attack. What does it all mean? It must be remembered that few people among tho general public in England are aware of the magnitude of the secret warlike preparations which have been so long in progress in this country. So they cannot take that side of the case into calculation. But they do think and talk a great deal about the other side — the side which they can see. They do ask indignantly how many more " graceful concessions " England is going to make to foreign countries strong enough to bully her? They wonder what is the real meaning and true inwardness of Lord Salisbury's extraordinary squeezeableness, his apparent readiness to submit to whatever Russia may choose to decree. Loud grumblings are to bo heard all round. Sir William Harcourt and other leading Oppositionists boldly and ' ! triumphantly taunt the Government with j their disastrous failure in foreign affairs. ' Still Ministers make no sign, and secret preparations continue. Again, what does it all ; mean? A few of those " deep and truly knowing . men " who make it a duty to understand all about everything say that the apparent flabbi-

ness and squeezeableness manifested by the Salisbury Government for some time past are a part of a big scheme. Russia is not to be permitted to prepare at her leisure for an attack on i he British Empire or to be allqwed to make war wl-en phe pleases and is ready to do so. No, England will take an early oppoitunity to put her foot down, nnd will back up stern and resolute word} with pttrn and resolute deeds. Should France support; Russia, England is prepared to deal with Franco too, while the French coasts are illprotected from naval onslaught. So iuns the opinion of some very v.-ell-informed, and, as a rule, cautious men. Evidently then there is more behind tha scenes than meets the eye in front. The real negotiations are kept strictly secret, Vyhat is allowed to appear is merely the froih on the surface. Whether the British Government deliver their blow or not, they are assuredly getting everything in readiness for dealing it with crushing effect. Mr Chamberlain, Sir Michael Hicks-Beach, and Mr Carzon are understood to deem immediate action advisable; Lord Salisbury, the Duke of Devonshire, and Mr Balfour to favour delaying until all possibility of avoiding blows has disappeared. But at the rate events now move in the Far East, a crisis may arise at any moment. The chief trouble may be to convince Russia that England is in earnest '" even at the risk- of war." It was that incredulity that caused the Crimean War in 1853, when the weakness of the incapable Ministry headed by Lord Al.erdeen", had inspired the Emperor Nicholas I with such contempt that when one evening (as Kinglake says) the Czar " rang the bell and oredered the occupation of the Danubian provinces " he could not be brought to beiie\e that England would declare war. He was soon undeceived, but thousands of British lives and millions of British treasure paid the forfeit for Lord Aberdeen's weakness and incapacity. If the advisers of Nicholas II are firmly imbued with the notion that Lord Salisbury and the British people are for peace at any price they will presume on the delusion once more, and then war will be inevitable. It cannot be too clearly recognised that the trend of events is in that deplorable direction. The only hope is that Russia, and France too, may be brought to see that the old bull dog spirit of the Briton is unchanged, and that if lie once recognises that his rights are threatened he will fight to the death in maintaining them, even if he should have to meet the whole world in arms.