WHEAT AND FLOUR MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2318, 4 August 1898, Page 4

WHEAT AND FLOUR MARKETS.

Tho unexpectedly rapid decline in the values of breadstuff's in British and foreign markets from the unduly inflated range i.f prices prei ailing two mouths ago has no doubt admiui^tcred a shook to holders of btoofos and speculators, who have, ere this, rcali&ed tho fact that the possibilities of recovery are gone for the season. Commencing in February, the enhancement of values was steadily progresm 0 until the middle of April, when Iho boom set in, stimulated by the certainty of warfare between the United Slates and Spain. The sensational spurt in prices readied its climax iv Ma}', since when the decline has been continuous. The following London quotations show tho extreme fluctuations in a alues : —

— aS *£ afc S=s «J *** >-5 Hs** =s. d ?. d. s. d. s. d. Hani Duluth, per 4SOIb, parcelsin London 43 957 639 039 0 Russian cargoes (Gherka), pei ( 4921b. c.i.f. ,„ ,„ ... 3S 331 6,36 03i 0

•c 1 In Beerbohm's circular for June tho posi« • tion of the markets at the close of the month ; was indicated as follows: — "With enormous >c : .shipments to Europe, although mainly cicsl( 3 tined for the Continent, and with Goi'uuny and Antwerp rebelling to England some yi tho I toreign wheat which they had previously y bought, the market has nob been atlo to y withstand the effects of extraordinarily favourable crop estimates in France and in America, '* something approaching demoralisation has, m .0 fact, been shown this week, with Chicago 30 y cents down on the week for June and 20 cents lower for July. Values of actual whoafc V in this country (Great Britain) have not, of J. 1 courso, declined in the same proportion as ._ in America, because in the latter country prices wero unduly inflated, but the decline r icems to have frightened buyers entirely out •Ji of tho market. There is of course, no radical v chango in tho statistical position, except t!:at I everything going well with the growing crop ■t tlicro will bo less difficulty than had been It apprehended in making both ends meet before tho new crop become' available. The senti- " I meat of the trade is hugely effected by tho ■t po«?ibilily of big crops in America and f» i'rance, and i( will probably bo difficult; for tho market to recover until the actual want c of wheat be felt in this country, which y would seem to be unavoidable in July, and £! in August if -the crop be delayed." Quotations, as cabled from London during July, show I<? ; slight, fluctuations, but on the whole with * - tendency downward, so that Bcerhom's ant.i- _ cipations of ( scarcity and a consequent rise in prices have not been realised. Probably this is mainly duo to the prospects of exoep- ;, lionaHy largo production in Europe ami America, more particularly in the Unite.l Slates. As regards the wheat yield of (ho l> latter, it has been a«crlamed that tho ro1 ported damage done to tho Californian crops g ! by drought and tempests was greatly cxsig- • gerated, and that a yield will be harvested S > nearly approaching an a\ erage for the Stato. t ! Progress reports estimate the wheat yield for „ j tho whole of tho Stales at 750,000,000 bushels, J the largest on record, the closest approach to - it bring iVat ol 1691, when the quantity I \ reaped was estimated at 630,000,000 bushels. i Probably the increase indicated will turn out to be due in the main to extension of nrpa I ( under crop induced by Leiler's speculations . and the consequent extravagant prices j quoted for wheat and flour in the United j Slates markets during many months. The .' [ sudden collopso of the Leitcr speculation, ; j which occurred in June, the compulsory =>a!t> j of his immense stocks of wheat in "e'c.a ! tors," amounting to 5,000,000 bushels, l>> i'u5 J. D. A i*m our, and the prospects of largo ' I crops have been, no doubt, materiel conlri- . j butory cau'.es for U.e fall in values of wheat ■■ and flour in the world's markets. Loiters ! '"profits" were fvom time to time in United , States journals variously estimated at from ! one to two millions s-icrliug, but according to > ! recent cable news his losoC? are estimated at ; I £150,000; his liabilities, however, have a 1 , l been paid oil. As a counterpoise to tho Leiter slump, tho term for the suspension of fho duty (Mi wheat of lll2 1 2d per 4801b, and which ; was to have terminated in Franco on July \, , ' has been extended to October 1, so that the continued demand for the French marks' s : helped to mitigate the trade disorganisation , consequent 011 the Leiter collapse, and tho ' sudden placement on the market of lm~o 1 ; store? of wheat. ' 1 Seeing that according to the revised estimate , I of thi-i colony's wheat yield just issued by j the Agricultural department wo shall have ! i some difficulty in making both ends meet l>e- | fore tho new crop become-; available, tho surplusage on 15th February next being estimated at the very moderate quantity of 291,119 ' bushels the question arises, Will not the posii tion attract supplies from the other colonieo? ; ' The position of wheat in the Australian colonies is, therefore, a subject of exceeding in- , t crest to holders of stocks and consumers of . breidslufis in this colony. La^t colonial cereal season supplies and quotations iv Sydney dominated the intercolonial markets, ai:d controlled exports. Apparently for some months to come Victorian operations will be tho dominant factor this year, simply because, for the present at least, that colony holds tho largest surplus available for export, aud at the lowest prices. i The reason why there is an accumulation of 1 clocks in Victoria and pi ices low h explained in the Australasian of July 9, thus: — "-Tho ' position of the Australian wheat markets has again become a self-dependent one, inasmuch , a» the rapid decline in the European markets i has reduced the export value to considerably, I below tiie quotation?: ruling in the colonic-v 1 Victorian wheat shipped early in May ciul j half wny to England is quoted at only 31s 6d I per quarter, c.i.f., equal to about 3s Id to !3s ljd f.o.b. at this port. .... To j sustain the local markets at the present lei'cl j of prices, therefore, an intercolonial cVnaucl must be looked for. aud here is rca»"i.tohopo that Victoria will receive the benefit if fcuoii demand. fcjouth Australia has little to sjiare, New South Wales stocks have been { drawn freely upon to supply other colonies ; and to fill export engagements during tho ! past few months.., and the result is that .\felj bourne i- the cheapest market in the colonies, j having a sin plus folill to export." The Melj bourne Argus on the pame subject, writes: — I " The price now obtainable in London for j May shipments i« 9d per bushel lower i.han to-dpy's local quotation of 3s lOd. No further I export of wheat (o the United Kingdom is at i all likely to bo made. Queensland. Western Av.slntlin, and possibly New Zealand will vcI qu'ro wheat and flour before the next har1 vc-t conioo in. .Roughly the requirements of I Queensland up to the cud of Novomder may bo^ quoted at bOO.OOQ to 900,000 bu&hels in either wheat or flour. This will bo derived from »Sydhpy. Melbourne, and Adelaide. The balance of Western Australia's requirements for the season wiii not be large, and will probably bo supplied principally from Adelaide. If New Zealand takes Atislralian breadstuff s at all it will probably be in the shape of Adelaide flour. She had already taken some wheat from Tasmania." Under ■ editing circumstances in Victoria the tenI dency is for intercolonial orders to be sent to Melbourne) to be supplied. A moderate hiiH'ieso has already been clone for export to fiydney, and if the other colonies requires io enter the market it will probably be from Melbourne that they will be supplied, subject to the condition that Melbourne remains the cheapest market in tho colonies. " Later iv Hie year," says the Australasian, "the cose of landing Californian wheat in other colonies will be a factor in the position, as it will save intercolonial buyers from paying too high a price for Victorian wheat,."' How New South \\ ales stands in connection with its breadstuff's supply is outlined in a review by the Sydney Mail of last harvest production and the Customs returns of imports and exports of wheat and flour during the first six months of tho year. In this it is shown

Cocoanut On, Cake, sold by Nimmo and B'air, Dunedin, 13 the Gncst flesh-producing food known for dairy cows aud stock of all sorta.

MSEi7ifw*"«K«urarvww»a\>M vw^i-cww«i«a-.' f^ I "

that by reducing the flour to its equivalent in wlveat the total exports in terms ot wheat exceeded the total imports by 1,270,202 bus- • hol-i. But tho wheat crop was estimated at 10,bi '.258 bushels, so that after making allowance for ropuirc-ments within the colony plus the quantity already exported a balance is loft for export between now and the end of the year of only 100,818 bushels. "So Now South Wales," says the Mail, " hai practically ceased for this season to bo a wheatexporting colony and any excess of expo/fc will have to be made up by imports." It is understood that considerable offers liavo been tendered in Sydney of new-crop Californian wheat at cheap rates, but for the oresent merchants and millers arc not dispose I to speculate. As to the position in South Aust ral ia, the Observer remarks : — " As^ v.o showed a day or two ago, South Australia's is not very great, and would be exhausted by the end of the year with an export demand as active only as that which has existed for tho last six months. If the intercolonial demands were to be brisk, and farmers fchowed a determination not to part with their stocks, which in some instances is not improbable, it would not be difficult to understand something of a rise taking place." Assuming the following quotations cabled to the Dunedin daily journals on 27th July to be correct the Australian wheat markets were tending downwards. Prices were as follows: — Melbourne: Wheat, 3s 3d to 3s 4d ; flour, to £10 10s. Sydney : Wheat, 3s 6d nominal ; flour, £10 to £10 10s. Adelaide: Wheat, 3s 6d to 3s 8d; flour, £11. Once our millers liavo worked off the heavy stocks on hand, bought at high rates, it will be seen if Australian prices will influence our markets.