WHEAT PRICES 1595-96.

Otago Witness, Issue 2179, 28 November 1895, Page 4

WHEAT PRICES 1595-96.

Recent cablegrams convey the information that (he tone of the wheat markets in the United Kingdom and European importing countries is more buoyant, with a tendency towards a slight advance in values ; but the lateet detailed reports in the trade journals to hand chronicle perplexiug and recurring fluctuations in priced, and show that surprisingly little confidence is evinced as to the future. Thia uucertsinly is forcibly illustrated by market quotations during the first fortnight of September. Then, according to the Corn Trade Review, the demand for wheat in America had apparently caught up with the supplies. " Cash wheab in many of the winterwheat States is at a premium over that for future delivery. The cash article is now worth practically as much a 9 December delivery." At the same time, River Plate wheat was on offer at the Corn Exchange, Liverpool, at 23s 3d per quarter for the new crop for shipment) between Fibrnarysml April next, without finding buyers. In 'thi* connection it is to bo understood that Argentine wheat is harvested in January, and that an average crop will be reaped this season. A careful scrutiny of the trade reports discloses the various causes in operation that stimulated the "demaad for wheat " on spot or afloat" duriDg the opening months of the cereal year. In the first place, growers of whtat in exposing as well as in importing countries, in view of the deficiency of the world's harvest, showed very little disposition to market the produce early. Sellers of Russian wheat especially, who as a rule are free sellers for shipment early in the Beason, offered little or nothing, and refused to execute many oidera sent out. Again, in no year at a corresponding date had there been so remarkable a disappearance of reserves a3 during the three month? ending 31it August Jast. Furthermore, the aggregate visible supply had decreased. The Corn Trade News, September 17, gives a tabular statement showing that the visible *upply, counting the United Kingdom stocks and the American visible supply since July 1, had decreased 16,G00 000 bushels, and rtmarks :—": — " In each of the past four years stccks have increased by leaps and bouuds during September, October, and November ; this season they have shrunk rapidly when they should have been increasing, and we believe will now remain almost stationary, for while tbe American vis'ble supply may increase to a moderate extent, it is probable the United Kingdom stocks and floating supply will continue to d-rrease i-ligbtly." The following tabular statement, published in the journal named, sho*s at a glance the course supply and demand were taking in comparison with what was expected to be the case at the commencement of the season. The second and third oolumna show the. rate at which annual shipments were being made, compared with the estimated annual requirements :—: —

In refereuca to the data given above as showing the uncxpecbed c3ntracbion of supplies, the Corn Trade News says : — "At the moment no one can say for certain who will appear to bj in the right. To us it appears as if the evidence is strongly in favour of the sellers' policy — namely, that of abstenlion — turning out the more corrf cfc. They" are shipping at the rate of 40,000,000qr per annum, wherea3 50,000,000qr are wanted. Ifc may be argued that as the world's »ggTfg»t« crop of wheat of 3 895 is only about 12, 000, 000qr ahort of thatoF 189*, and as the consumption for four-footed feed will be 10 000, OOOqr smaller than last season, therefore the supply for human food is practically as large as last year. This may ba granted, and yet the main proposition may still hold good — viz , that Eupplies will fall behind requirements all the ensuing season. In the firat place, through the cctnal growth of population there will be 3,000,000qr mo-e vvhestt warded than last Be«sou ; and, in the seci.Tid p';> r>, rf*«ervps Jast season were drawn v; on to the «-Klriifc of 2,000,000qr. These two item*, toother with the 2,000 OOOqr diff-rence between the estimated surplus of 48,000,C00qr as against requirements of 50, 000, 000qr, as shown in the table above, make a grand total of 7,000,000qr unp r o v ided— a very material quantity when compared with stocks in commercial channels, which only totalled 158,000,000 bushels at the beginning ot the season." Farmers in the United Kingdom were holding over their stocks of. wheat, as "durinc the

fortnight ending 21st September the deliveries at the statute msrk-ls were only 64, 000qr, compared with 92, 000qr in the corresponding period of 1£94, 107,000qrin 1893, 100,000qr in 1892, 129, 000qr in 1691, and 214,000qr in 1890. " This means," says the Corn Trade News, " that country millers this season have been able to get oaly one-fourth of the quantity that was available in the corresponding period of 1890, which is equivalent to saying that the demand for foreign wheab is 173,000qr per wrek heavier in these two weeks of September 1895 than it was in the corresponding two weeks of September 1890." Whilst this wa3 the position in the United Kingdom, foreign wheat was in little request iv the markets of European importing countries, and thus while there was abstention on the part of sellers everywhere, there was only a briskness of .demand for wheat at improved rates in the Butish markets. The latest advices are to the efftct that this demand has been responded to by (shipments from Russia on so liberal a scale that it is expected they will aggregate in volume during October acd November greatly in excess of those in the corresponding months of any year since 1890 ; but United Statea wheats continued to be sparingly offered, and according to official reports the Burplus held over for years was baing gradually reduced by the American The prcspectiye short supplies seemingly warrant expectations of higher jjrices for wheat during the current cereal year, but it is questionable if the advance will bo as considerable as producers hope for. There are this season enormous crops of maizq and an average yield of rye, and should flour harden materially in price certain European populations accustomed to the use of the cheaper breadstuff* will have recourse to the. m again. Unfortunately this, it seems, will be & record year for a low harvest yield in the two Australian wheat exporting colonies, Victoria and South Australia — the estimated average yield in the former ranging from five to seveu bushels per acre) and in the latter from three to five bushels. Any surplus they may have will be very small indeed, and j their usual outside customers will have to find | supplies irom other sources at prices dominated j by ruling rates in Europe. Already consign- ' ments of wheat and flour have been ordered in California for New South Wales and Queensland, and as vessels conveying breadstutfs can be assured of return cirgoes of coal, freights will be cheap, and prices for grain outside dutyprotected colonies will be governed by ra'.es in ] Europe. <•

Shipments to +" to m .«: re a g tor-. Sa|l* 2,275 000 475.000 ! 1,175,000 479,0n0 233,000 4,635,000 §1 « On m.S qj Sag Jnited Kingdom France Northern Europe louthern Europe /hina, Brazil, &c. Qr. 19 7U0.0P0 4 oi'o,ii 'o,i 00 10,. O'.OOO 4.150.0U0 2,020 000 Qr. 25,0110,000 4,000.fi00 11,400,000 5.6T0 000 3,500,000 49,550,('00 Total 40,170,000 ' The shipment! jcuuTieß during :o September 14 ; per annum at w ;be anuual rate ship during the si \ from ti the six wi ire shown lich they \u which k te chief ;ekfi fro re below, alsi are expor aey are ex exporting August 3 o the rate 'ting, and pecked to iason :: — • Exports by in Qr. ilfsg Qr. 02 America and Canada Russia and Black S«a "ndia Argentine \.u«Lralasia lubtiia-Hungary 3 hili, Uruguay, Africa, &c. . Qr. 1,388,000 12,0:0,000 15,000,000 2,222,000 523,<H.'0 49,000 140,000 19,257,000 4,533,<;00 425,000 21,000,000 3,0' 0,000 6,000,000 50 ',000 1.0U0.U00 1,213,000 313,000 4.C<5,000' 2,713,000 140,170,000 1,500,000 Total