WAR PROSPECTS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2086, 15 February 1894, Page 20

WAR PROSPECTS.

General Sir Archibald Alison's article in the December number of " Blackwood " is not exactly cheerful reading for those who appreciate the blessings of peace. Sir Archibald draws attention to the fact that while France has been increasing her army more rapidly than Germany, she has now about come to the end of her tether ; while Germany, though she has been moving at a slower pace, is able to continue her present rate of progress for many years to come. We are, in the opinion of this authority, slowly but surely progressing towards a "war of giants" That the struggle will find Russia and France on the one side, and Germany, Austria, and Italy on the other, is, he considers, evident from the present localisation of the various forces. Referring to the Russian army, Sir Archibald finds that out of a total force of nearly a million, 784,000 men sra massed on the German frontier and in the reserve behind it; whilst Odessa and the Crimea are held and Constantinople watched by only 80,000 ; and the Caucasus occupied and the Turkish frontier in A6ia Minor observed by 50,000 ; while in the whole of Transcuspia, along the Afghan and Chinese frontiers, there are only 51,000, and on and about the Sea of Japan some 12,000. From a general survey of the disposition of Russia's forces, Sir Archibald Alison come 3to the conclusion — first, tha^she is straining every nerve to mass men on her Polish frontier, so as to be able, in conjunction with FraEce, to crush Germany, even though aided by flanking Austria and distant Italy ; next, that until this contest is over, Russia has determined to give up designs on Constantinople ; and finally, that she has no present intention of making any move upon Afghanistan or

India. Further than this, Sir Archibald regards it as certain that Russia never really intended to undertake such a distant and difficult enterprise as that of moving a force sufficient to seize our Indian Empire through the inhospitable and hostile country of Afghanistan. What she will probably do, in his opinion, before making her great move, is to endeavour to induce us to believe that she is really about to invade India, so as to chain our large European force there to that country. When the German system attains its full development, Sir Archibald estimates that her available trained force for war will reach the enormous number of 4,300,000 men. At present he reckons that the Dual Alliance (France and Russia) has in peace 362,000 men under arms more than the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria, and Italy), but that the latter has in war the superiority by 503,000.