BRITISH AND FOREIGN WHEAT MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2006, 4 August 1892, Page 6

BRITISH AND FOREIGN WHEAT MARKETS.

Over 12 months ago — so early indeed ill the season as the month of June — it was definitely ascertained that the European harvests of the year would be materially below the normal standard of productiveness. This was more distinctly the case concerning the wheat crops, and consequently the Home and Continental commercial and agricultural journals almost without exception teemed with predictions of a scarcity of, and a high range of prices for, breadstuffs before supplies from the 1892 crops would be available. In the United Kingdom the writers of market reports confidently expressed Jthe belief that wheat there would realise 50s per quarter before the close of the cereal year, but none of the prophecies have been verified ; while the Indian new crop is on the market and general harvesting throughout Europe and America is near at hand. The utterly unexpected depression in prices of wheat and flour in the old world markets, especially notable since March, and when enhanced values were looked for, has been deplorably disappointing to growers and speculators alike, Home and foreign. Writing of quotations for wheat in British markets during May, the contributor to the Mark Lane Express says :—": — " English wheat has been on large offer for the time of year. Farmers have lost heart, and are clearing their reserves at a very low figure. The sales of English wheat last week at 196 statute markets were larger than we ever remember them. In 1&90 they were decidedly heavy, but without coming quite up to last week's standard. Value is as much as 8s 4d per quarter below that of a year ago, and had in reality reverted to the moderate level associated with the easy trade conditions of 1890." In the beginning of June it was estimated that 5, 533, 4-4-0 quarters of the British 1891 crop had been sold 'and that 2,466,560, 466, 560 quarters remained for disposal. While British farmers were desirous of parting with their wheat, foreign grown was being pressed on the markets, and it was remarkable as showing the considerable volume of Russian wheat hecured for outside markets before its export was prohibited that " the South Russian product which this time (May) last year was making 42s per quarter with free shipment is to-day worth only 355, despite the prohibition of exports since November. The costs of holding being added, it is probable that a loss of as much as 10s per quarter has in some instances been sustained." The imports of wheat to the United Kingdom since last harvest up to the 23rd May were 10,838,34-8 quarters, and of flour .4,791,648 quarters. The mean weekly rate of total imports was 4-22,000 quarters, against 362,000 quarters the previous year, an average increase weekly of 60,000 quarters. But between the 14-th and 20th May there was quite a phenomenal " record " of arrivals of wheat cargoes at ports in the United Kingdom. The arrivals comprised 62 sailing vessels, nearly all with white wheat. "Of these, 24- were reported sold, but others already purchased went to destinations. The sailings included 38 cargoes, of which 28 went to France, Germany and Antwerp six, and the United Kingdom was satisfied with the modest number of four." The explanation of the extensive purchases on French account is that operators in the grain markets of that country "were desirous of absorbing as much as possible at present low rates of value, provided the ships could be got into the French ports before the end of May, so as to escape the 3s 6d per quarter increased duty which comes into force on June 1." It is, however, broadly stated that but for the demand on French account the abnormal supplies would have caused a panic in British markets, and it is observed :—": — " There must bo decided substratum of firmness in the market for the recent strain to have been borne with no greater loss on previous values than a shilling per quarter."

The New York correspondent of the Economist writes that some authorities in the United States favour the view that wheat must be materially higher in the near future because the coming crop would be a late one, and therefore subject to weather vicissitudes. The opinion is also commonly expressed that "America will nob produce an average crop of wheat this year, by that meaning the average of five years or more prior to the enormous yield of 1891 or, say, 445,000,000 in ordinary seasons." It must be borne in mind, however, the writer suggests, that available stocks of wheat in the United States and at chief European ports of accumulition " are larger probably than ever before on June 1." Buyers on European account recognise this, and are in no hurry to effect transactions, and exports from the States were decreasing. "For the week ending May 28 the export of wheat (and flour as wheat) to Europe aggregated only 2,290,000 bushels against 3,603,000 the week before, 3,621,000 bushels two weeks before, and contrasted with 3,950,000 the week before that. This week's aggregate of 2,290,000 bushels is smaller than that for any other one week since the month of July 1891, and is smaller than the total of like exports in the corresponding week of 1890-1." The state of the markets and the instability of even the low rates ruling may be attributed to various causes, the two principal factors being the much more liberal supplies from the United States than were calculated on, and the considerable excess of the contributions from India, amounting .to nearly one million and a-half quarters over the estimated quantity that the dependency could spare. Again, Russian sources were much more heavily drawn upon immediately after harvest than was generally known, else supplies therefrom would not be under offer weekly on British and Continental markets. Furthermore, there was the

operation of hostile tariffs, especially directed againsb wheat, which compelled masses of Continental populations suffering from insufficiency of employment and a lowering of wages, to have recourse to cheaper cereals and coarser food materials such as pulse, potatoes, and the like. Thus the demand for wheat has been considerably 'reduced below the standard Wants on which estimates were based in the early part of the year, and there was abundant supplies at the time when scarcity was predicted.