THE PROBLEM OF TITO

Otago Daily Times, Issue 27038, 24 March 1949, Page 6

THE PROBLEM OF TITO

For nearly nine months the Cominform denunciation of Marshal Tito has attracted the earnest attention of studefits of international affairs. Towards the end of last year the full correspondence in the Soviet-Yugoslav dispute was published, but the experts continued to differ in their interpretations of the issue at stake. Within the last week comment in the cable news has been directed to the possibility that military action will be taken against Tito in the spring or summer of this year, and again other opinions have been quoted to the effect that Russia is unlikely to embark on so risky a military venture. With the passage of time, however, the general situation has become somewhat clearer, and recently there have been several events which may prove to be of future significance. At the conference of the Bulgarian Communist Party early this year, the Premier, M. Dimitrov, made a strong appeal for an East European Federation, and attacked Tito for creating a “ nationalistic breach.” Last year, Dimitrov was officially reproved for a similar suggestion, but when the Cominform attacked Tito, Dimitrov toed the party line. Now he announces, apparently with Soviet approval, a new federation scheme which would favour Bulgaria and virtually remove Yugoslavia from the map. Action in this quarter, because of Tito’s favourable military position, is expected to remain on the political and economic level. But economic warfare is a dangerous weapon to use in this case. In December, under a new trade agreement, Russia reduced the amount of exports to Yugoslavia to one-eighth of the 1948 total. In the same month, after sixteen months of negotiations, a new trade agreement was concluded between Great Britain and Yugoslavia. It was announced that, as the result of Cominform “ sanctions,” this was one of the eighteen agreements with countries outside the Eastern bloc. There is other evidence that Tito may now be courting the West. It has been charged against him in the United Nations that he consistently permitted the Greek guerrilla leader, Markos, to violate the frontier in his attacks on Greece. Now Markos has vanished—it is presumed that he has fallen under Soviet displeasure—and a new leader has taken his place; but the Yugoslav border is being closed with barbed wire, an action which can hardly be interpreted as hostile to the Greek Government. If, with Western assistance, Tito can resist economic pressure, it is probable that what he has most to fear is assassination or a “ palace attack ” by the dissentient section of the Yugoslav Communist Party, through which, of course, the Kremlin continues to work.