THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES Thursday, November 18, 1943. TURKEY AND THE WAR

Otago Daily Times, Issue 25386, 18 November 1943, Page 4

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES Thursday, November 18, 1943. TURKEY AND THE WAR

The talks which Mr Eden, returning from the Moscow conference, had in Cairo with the Turkish foreign Minister, Mr Menemenjoglu, have naturally given fresh cause for discussion of the Turkish attitude towards the war. The Ankara correspondent of The Times, who takes it for granted that an exchange of views occurred between the Ministers on “ the burning question of shortening the war”— presumably by Turkish intervention on the side of the Allies—comments that the only thing that can be said positively is that Turkish opinion has undergone a slow, subtle change in the past six months. In the light of recent military history it would be surprising indeed if that much could not be said. The Allied triumph in the Mediterranean basin, the victorious westward sweep of the Russian armies, the increasing effectiveness of Allied measures against the U-boat menace —these are developments which must have removed any doubts that may have been lingering in the public mind in Turkey .about the certainty of an ultimate Axis collapse. The Turkish Government, moreover, even while stoutly maintaining a neutral attitude towards the war, has let it be understood that it expects to be a participant in the peace settlement, and the price of that privilege might not be set too high if belligerency rather than neutrality were required of Turkey in the war’s closing stages. For an understanding of the Turkish attitude it is necessary to recall that, after the collapse of France, the British and Turkish Governments re-examined the Treaty of Alliance of 1939 and arrived at an understanding whereby Turkey, although abiding by her treaty obligations, would not be pressed to execute .them because of Britain’s then inability to "give the assistance necessary to place the Turkish Army on an effective war footing. That situation was radically altered by the Axis defeats in North Africa and at Stalingrad. The Germans were disturbed not only by the drastic change in the military position brought about on two closely related fronts, but also by the quick following up of the Allied advantage in the diplomatic field. Mr Churchill’s visit to Adana, the later visit of a British military, naval, and air mission to Ankara, and the speeding-up of shipments of war supplies to Turkey which followed the reopening of the Mediterranean for Allied traffic, were all viewed as part of the effort to meet the new situation created by Allied successes. German perturbation was expressed in an inquiry whether any change in Turkish policy was pending, to which the reply of the Turkish Government was that _no change was contemplated. In view of the steady decline in Axis fortunes, however —not the least impressive sign of which is the tendency of several of the Balkan countries to sue for Turkish friendship—it may well be, as the correspondent of The Times has suggested, that the Turkish people are expecting to be asked to show, in more active form than heretofore, their loyalty to the Anglo-Turkish alliance. It is mot very helpful to speculate at this stage on the manner, in which Turkish assistance might be given to the Allied cause. There has been some suggestion, for example, that Turkish bases might be ceded to the Allies. What seems important to bear in mind is that the granting of Turkish concessions to the Allies, such as the use of ports or air bases or of facilities for the passage of troops, would be regarded by" the Axis as being tantamount to an actual declaration of war. It would certainly mean the abandonment of Turkish, neutrality, and the Turkish Government, before moving either passively or actively to the side of the Allies, would most certainly have to take into account the country’s preparedness to accept all the possible consequences of its decision. Two months ago it jwas the opinion of a special correspondent of the Manchester Guardian in Ankara that Turkey’s military strength, despite Allied assistance, could not be considered. adequate for an offensive war. He also expressed the view that Turkish participation in the war at the moment when the fate of Germany appeared, to be sealed would look like a “stab in the back” I similar to that which Italy dealt France—" an act,” he wrote, “ loathsome to the Turks, especially if perpetrated against a former ally.” These considerations strongly suggest the need for caution in any attempt to foresee the direction of Turkish foreign policy, even in response to what may appear on the surface to be strong Allied pressure.